Monday 2 May 2016

Looking Back At Payback Weekend

Now that Payback 2016 is in the rear-view it's time to consider what happened when it comes to inside betting on the event.

It's clear to state that there was huge shifts in the short time before the event started as eventual winners' prices fell steeply.

There's no question there. It's the Friday night betting action that has me puzzled. I'll get to Friday later in this post. Firstly, I'll run through the late Sunday wagers.

  • Kalisto was -210 at 10pm BST and then shortened to -840 just before the Kick-Off match
  • It's likely that The Vaudevillains were booked to win their match that was cancelled out due to Enzo Amore's injury. Their price went from +100 at 12am right into -420 as the PPV was starting.
  • Kevin Owens, who had been -245 for most of Sunday, went to -1,320 as the main show began
  • The Miz was -280 at 11:30pm but decreased to -1,620 a short while later
  • Dean Ambrose moved from -690 (11:30pm) to -2,110 (1am)
  • Charlotte's price went to -1,920 from -380 between 11:30pm and the beginning of the PPV
  • Roman Reigns' odds went from -840 to -2,110 between 11:30pm and 1am
I've purposely left out one name: Dolph Ziggler.

Ziggler's price had been on my radar since early Saturday morning. This was due to it descending from +310 to +110 between 10pm on Friday and 7:30am the following morning. 

The price didn't end its fall there. By Saturday evening, he had become a clear favourite and was -260 late Saturday.

Sunday wagering in favour of Baron Corbin brought Ziggler's price out. My last recording of the Payback odds has him as a +150 outsider just as his match against Corbin was about to begin. As we now know - Corbin, who was a -190 fave, did the job.

It wasn't just Ziggler who saw his price fall on the Friday/Saturday. In fact, every outsider had a price drop. 

  • AJ Styles went from +335 to +180
  • The Miz went from -110 to -120 (although his price dropped steeper as Saturday went on)
  • Chris Jericho dipped from +450 to +420
  • Kevin Owens moved from a +140 outsider into a -175 favourite
  • Natalya went to +190 from +250
  • Enzo and Cass halved from +300 to +150
  • Kalisto went from a +175 dog into -145
For every Kalisto and Kevin Owens, there is a Chris Jericho and Natalya. This makes it difficult to state with strong belief that inside betting occurred earlier that weekend. 

However, the Dolph Ziggler versus Baron Corbin match could be used to strengthen the idea that knowledgeable betting took place in at least a few of the match markets on Friday to early Saturday.

As last night proved, wrestling fans tend to bet with logic, if you can call it that. The newcomer winning his singles match debut on pay-per-view should make more sense to them than Dolph Ziggler being victorious. That's why the odds started moving in Corbin's favour on Sunday. It was regular bettors taking the result that they've seen many times before.

Hitting hard on Ziggler in this spot would only make sense to those with knowledge of the result. 

14 comments:

  1. Chuffin Ziggler. Cost me £350-400....

    ReplyDelete
  2. I had Ziggler on all my bets along with all the guys that went from underdog to favourite owens, miz, kalisto....which for me had have to have been inside money (enzo/cass) became favs after so didnt have them. Payback was exactly that for me I got paid back handsomely!

    ReplyDelete
  3. The pattern was the same as WM changed on Saturday and then fan betting made it close again as well as the guessing game and then changed heavily on Sunday night but having followed the odds for awhile if matches go from underdog to favourite across most of the board then smart money has landed...the only thing I'll say is I got lucky with Enzo/Cass vs Vaudevillians match because I had covered both with the other favourites and since there was no finish got winning bets on all of the bets rather than just one or the other.

    ReplyDelete
  4. One thing clear from Wrestlemania and Payback is that on Saturday only the underdogs were backed heavily that were going to be eventual winners all at the same time at WM (Jericho,Ryder, Charlotte, Lesnar, Undertaker, League of Nations) and Payback (Owens, Miz, Ziggler, Kalisto) all changed near enough at the same time.....I know Enzo/Cass flipped to favourite but that was later on after the others had flipped and gradually and from what I noticed flipped sometime during the night.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Long shot but the vaudevillians were awarded the win for Payback. Think could result in a payout?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nah.

      Firstly, the match was voided due to it being a no contest on the night.

      Secondly, all sports firms have in the rules that result reversals that are made on Raw etc don't count. What ever happens on the broadcast of the PPV is how they pay out.

      Delete
  6. No its not a long shot.....there was one bookie who classed Vaudevillians as winners on the night but at the same tim voided Enzo/Cass! I will reveal which bookies in the futre just in case they try to change it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a longshot.

      The 'Initial Result' and 'End of Broadcast result' rules are there for this very reason.

      Delete
    2. One example. Sky Bet:

      Any of these events occurring after the broadcast are not counted for settlement purposes, eg reversals of the result on WWE Monday Night Raw do not count.

      Delete
  7. Yeah I agree that it won't be overturned the next day but one bookie paid out on The Vaudevillians as winners on the night of the ppv that.s what I was saying.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Warren was asking if it's a longshot to have it reversed after Raw.

      Delete

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