In my opinion, this is what happens when you mix insider and fan money. It's a bad combination that causes confusion.
The Clash of Champions odds were published late on Friday or early on Saturday depending on where you live. At that point, there were insiders and regular punters looking to make their bets. A case could be made that the people who jumped on the slightest of moves forced the oddsmakers to shorten their prices heavily, Remember, the markets were published late, so the were going to have to adjust the lines even more strictly than usual.
I suggested care in the comments section of a post I published on Saturday morning as I sensed this was how things were going to fall.
One idea that will more than likely come to people's minds is the possibility that there were late changes to the matches where the dogs won. The New Day being victorious over Anderson and Gallows was on the opener, so it could be argued that there wasn't enough time between the amendment and the market being taken off the board.
As for Chris Jericho going over Sami Zayn - it was later in the show and, of the three match markets that changed as the PPV was in progress, the bets came in on Jericho as he dropped from +450 to +400. However, to add a counter to my thought, this could have simply been bettors reacting to seeing the outsiders win in the first match of the main card by siding with underdogs.
Further to this, I am sure there'll be people who believe that none of the matches on last night's card were affected by inside action (I get it nearly every month, so it's a safe bet this week). To them I ask, how come the Sheamus/Cesaro odds didn't move strongly when all other match markets saw action irregardless of the final result being correct or not?
Smart money definitely landed for nia, roman, Kevin Owen and TJ look how heavy their odds are. All the others I could say was fan money. I think because of how late 5dimes put up their markets made it trickier for insiders but I still think it's crazy how they didn't capitalise on jericho and new day with their odds
ReplyDeleteMy betfair bet for a match to end in a double count out or pin is still in open... I'm expecting them to not pay out on it as it was more of a doctor stoppage... Sucks because I knew it'd be a draw lol
DeleteNone of the props have been settled yet, though. I'm still waiting for a few winners.
DeleteBut like you stated, the result won't go in your favour which is a pity.
My betfair bet for under 2.5 pedigrees is still open with them..
DeleteI think Nia and TJ was 100% winners in a eyes of fans. KO also. So i think it more fans money
DeleteWith Roman there was definitely smart money.
This was very strange PPV. I made only one bet this time - on Sheamus. For me it is most strange PPV of this year.
ReplyDeleteBefore Backlash odds was moving so fast, and at Clash they move only in favor way (except Zayn).
i wrote about how fans predict the show. And there Zayn and Club was fovorite to win, like as at 5Dimes. So because of 5dimes late uptade i think most people just start put money of favorites, because they always win.
Fun fact: around 4-5 hours before the show at Betfair Jericho odds was turn off. There was 1.2 for Zayn, but no bet avaible for Jericho. (it was after Chris odds fall at 5dimes).
again a pretty weird PPV.
ReplyDeleteZayn was always favorite ,you could get Jericho at an awesome +450 ,insiders didnt back him at that odds!!?? They didnt have info in that match
the club at -1050 and New Day +550 ,This is a nosense tons of money entered on Friday /Saturday for the club and then market keep it quiet ,It maybe a late change and because it was first of night ,they didnt have time enough to bet on it? I dont know This is misterious
Charlotte acted Strange too,she went in at -500 and won his bout .How insiders didnt back strongerly Charlotte ,-500 it s a pretty decent price if you know whats gonna happen.
I would give something to know what happened behind the curtains on COC ,any idea?
one thing is for sure ,watching how late PPVs panned out ,This is becoming pretty tricky ,most of it cause it doesnt follow a Logic pattern.
Jericho opened as favorite on 5dimes. It then swung in favor of Zayn.
Delete1 theory no one has came up with for this: Lets say WWE wanted to find out who was giving away the finishes often days in advance so they narrowed it down to 2 guys on the creative team. They told 1 guy that the Club & Zayn were going over & they told the other guy that New Day & Jericho were going over & now they know who the mole is
ReplyDeleteI don't work in WWE and I've narrowed it down ;).
DeleteDoes David know who's releasing info? Dun dun dunnnnnn
DeleteNo, I don't know anything like that! Just have suspicions like everyone else.
DeleteOnly kidding my friend haha
DeleteProfit is profit so I have nothing to argue here. Yeah it wasn't my best PPV but still walked out with more then I had before. When talking about the actual PPV (not just the betting side of it) I enjoyed CoC much more then I did Backlash, so at least that was good. On to No Mercy in 2 weeks!
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've thought about for a while is, what if insiders are making some bets knowing its on the wrong person just so they can get really good odds just right before the matches start? Also, another idea is that 5dimes knows who the insiders are so some of the matches they bet on, they actually shift odds in the wrong direction on purpose to try to make even more money by everyone else flooding in on the "favorites." Lots of weird things could be happening and it would be very hard for us to be certain of anything.
ReplyDeleteif insiders are "bluffing" why they didnt back the real favorites then ?I remember Y2J was +400 and New Day + 500 ,too good of a numbers to pass on it...dont you think?
DeleteI've had people suggest these ideas many times in the past.
DeleteFor the first one to work, you would need to have a lot of people working together. I can't see how they could do this.
Oddsmakers hanging out favourites when they're really underdogs would be asking for trouble. If anyone truly believes this is happening, they shouldn't be betting on WWE because that too is asking for trouble!
@Andres - exactly.
DeleteHowever, Jericho's odds did dip from +450 to +400 from the start of the PPV to the bell.
DeleteYeah but if they bet just right before the match I don't think it would leave time time for odds to be updated before they are pulled. And to be clear, I don't think these things are happening. Just adding to the posts of WHAT COULD be happening. Very slim chance! Just something to think about!
DeleteNice calls on the time props with 6/6 correct.
ReplyDeleteThanks. Did you have a bet?
DeleteRusev vs reigns went on surprisingly longer then expected and the tag title match was dreadful. Made gallows/Anderson look a joke
DeleteIs it best to bet on who you think is going to win the moment the bets are up before the insiders place their bets and change the odds? I find myself making most profit on prop bets more than matches..
ReplyDeleteThe majority of my bets are done before potential smart money has come in.
DeleteI prefer the prop markets.
I prefer prop too, you get better odds
DeleteAll I know is that for No Mercy I want everyone here to ask 5Dimes to release odds early like they've done before. Let's see if things can return to normal for that PPV.
ReplyDeleteI think betting on No Mercy will be bad because we already know AJ and Becky will win. Also i 90% sure Usos and Bray will win. That leaves us 2-3 mathes left and specials - not too good
DeleteIm not sure it'll make much of a difference to be honest. Paddy Power setting limits of 50 & Betfair setting limits of 33. SkyBet & William Hill put up odds on a Saturday to avoid being stung by us with the smart money that normally comes in on a Thursday or Friday. Ladbrokes & Coral are a joke, putting odds up for an hour on the weekend just to say they had odds on offer. The bookies have had enough of being done by the smart money. Thats the major issue here.
DeleteMarc, i bet 100$ on Betfair this week on Sheamus and also around 70$ on over title changes.. so they have different limits for each market (on previous PPV i take Becky and Slater for 135$ max limit both).
DeleteYa, thats true but some of their limits are laughable. 3.98 max stake on the pedigrees special. I was limited to 33 on Cesaro initially & then 133 a few days later so it doesnt even make sense to be honest. It was much less strict for Backlash, i found.
DeleteProbably just over speculating , but Seth Rollins promo when he mentioned "betting on the wrong guy" during Clash of Champions - just a coincidence? A very good one atleast!
ReplyDeleteLook at my tweet from last night!
DeleteHaha! Amazing! It's almost like WWE are purposefully screwing with us. Now I know how Bret Hart felt after Montreal
DeleteHaha.
DeleteWWE announce that tonight Club will have a rematch for the titles. I 95% sure Club win.
ReplyDeleteI think WWE want New Day to be 400 days champions (not 399), thats why they win at Clash. And also that would expain why Club was favorite at 5Dimes
I'm 50/50 on this because tonight we have both the presidential debate and Monday night football. Yeah the football game isn't huge (Falcons Vs saints, both crappy teams) but we like our football so it will steal viewers. If I was WWE I wouldn't do any title changes tonight. Save them.
Deleteyeah, Club loze again. Sooo it was 3 or 4 Clubs try to win titles and they failed again.
DeleteSo who will be New Day next oponents? Enzo and Cass? Shining stars? RAW tag division became a joke
Looks like Cesaro and Sheamus to me.
DeleteYeah Cesaro and sheamus were told last night on Raw they will be going for the tag team belts (which I bet they win).
DeleteI don't think Orton loses Summerslam, technically (not really though) lost as Backlash, loses rematch against Lesnar in Chicago and then loses at No Mercy. They need to get him rolling.
ReplyDelete