Monday, 19 June 2017

New Day Win As MITB 2017 Underdogs

The New Day's count-out win over The Usos was an upset, from a betting perspective, as the challengers to the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship entered the match as +165 underdogs.

The Usos closed as -215 favourites.

It should be worth pointing out that New Day's odds fell for a period today. They started off the day as +180 outsiders, but were backed in the afternoon. They drifted back out when The Usos' price shortened as the pay-per-view was starting.

Date/Time
The Usos
The New Day
18/6 3:30am
-260
+180
8am
"
"
3:37pm
-185
+145
5:30pm
"
"
7pm
"
"
9:28pm
"
"
10pm
"
"
11pm
"
"
19/6 12am
"
"
12:30am
"
"
PPV
-215
+165
Match
"
"

Odds from 5Dimes.com.

5 comments:

  1. Smart money keeps landing but in different ways
    1.Paddy power(domestic site) is the place where insiders are punting not 5dimes anymore
    2.Lately 5dimes is offering decent odds for favorites in the close hours of PPVS,yesterday for instance ,Carmela,Corbin or Naomi were at the likes of 1.35 pretty far from the 1,0... of past months.You can take adv of it
    3.Insiders use to be early birds,Orton,Mahal,Joe,Corbin all were backed strongly pretty soon.
    4. Some leaks are happening too underdpgs like New Day ,Reigns or Bliss ended up winning ,change of plans? I don't know but it's weird insiders leave odds like 3.0 or sthg fly away

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1. Insiders are still betting at 5D.
      2. Some of last night's markets were available for over a week, so would have had enough action on some of the names to have lower odds (for example, Nakamura and Charlotte seeing action in their markets).
      3. I notice you slipped the Corbin theory in again.. I have already tried to explain that twice already, Corbin opening at 5/1 and then immediately being backed was mainly fan money. He had opened a favourite with Kambi the night before, so he was being backed. I backed him at 5/1 and I know of 3 others that did. We represent fan money. As for the others, then there's a strong case for it being smart, but you cannot point to Corbin falling from 5/1 to favourite when he was already priced up as a fave at another book almost a day beforehand.
      4. Apparently, the Bliss/Bayley back and forth was change of plan (Meltzer). New Day's price didn't move in when the other three were backed on Saturday night, but they did dip during the day (as noted above) it made sense for New Day to win the first match of the series either by CO or DQ to keep the titles with Usos for time being. I had people in the comments section also think it made sense for New Day to win, so I doubt that was a late change. Reigns winning against Strowman - was smart money on the Friday night but the punters came in heavy on Strowman because the belief was he should have won that match. Fan money won that one, but smart money absolutely came in on the Friday.

      Delete
    2. Andres, check David's 5:30pm 5dimes update. All the eventual winners were backed around the same time... Can't say that wasn't smart money.

      Delete
    3. They didn't all move at the same time. That post was really just an update on how things had transpired from the start of the day, but still - the eventual winners all moved in on Sunday.

      Delete
    4. Ah right but yeah, the eventual winners were backed just not heavily. Something to keep an eye out on for great balls of fire if friday moves don't happen again.

      Delete

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