Wednesday 26 July 2017

How The Roman Reigns SummerSlam 2017 Opponent Market Will Be Settled

In mid-June, the oddsmakers from Kambi released a market where customers could have a bet on who they believed would end up facing Roman Reigns at WWE SummerSlam 2017. Now that it has been confirmed that Reigns will be in a match against three opponents in Brock Lesnar, Braun Strowman and Samoa Joe, I thought it was worth publishing a post explaining how, barring any changes, bets will be settled next month.

When the market was available, the following rules were added above the list of selections:

Roman Reigns' SummerSlam 2017 opponent betting rules
Click on image to expand or read the quote below

It reads that the 'bet refers to the individual(s) who at the start of the specified event is/are the last advertised to feature in a match against the listed participant irrespective of any previous announcements or any changes whatsoever. Dead heat rules apply should the listed competitor be advertised to compete in more than 1 match and/or in matches involving multiple opponents, whichever the stipulation might be. Should the listed participant be advertised to participate in a match against an unknown/unadvertised opponent (ex. mystery opponent or open challenge), the first of said opponents to start in a match with the listed participant will be considered as winner for settlement purposes. Stakes will be refunded if the event is moved for more than 7 days than the originally scheduled date, moved to a different location, and/or should the listed competitor not be advertised to participate in at least 1 match at the start of the match against the opponent(s) advertised until the start of the event does not take place for whatever reason. Bets placed after any announcement on any WWE/official social media platform will be declared void. No refunds on non-starters. Other on request.'

I've put in bold and underlined the important part where it comes to the fatal 4-way match as it points out that - with there being three winners in the market -  'dead heat rules' will be applied.

Whenever there is a dead heat, your stake is divided by the amount of winners.

To explain this, I'll use an example of a bet I placed on this match and point out how much I am expecting from my wager.

Roman Reigns' SummerSlam 2017 opponent betting slip

I lucked into betting on Samoa Joe being Reigns' opponent. My bet was placed under the belief that Brock Lesnar versus Braun Strowman had been moved from Great Balls of Fire to SummerSlam and I figured that Reigns could fit into a feud with Joe. 


The stake was £4, so this is now divided by three because Lesnar, Strowman and Joe - unless there is an unseen change - will all be classified as winners when the market is graded in August. 

Four divided by three will mean that I'll have £1.33 riding on Joe at 10/1 (the odds aren't divided). Therefore, I am expecting a return of £14.63 (£13.33 winnings and £1.33 stake returned).

The same method can be applied to anyone who backed the other two wrestlers. For example, if you put £3 on Braun Strowman when he was EVS, your stake will be divided by three so you'll only have a £2 return (£1 part of your stake returned and £1 win). In this case, despite having a winning selection, the punter would have lost a pound. 

As for the market itself, the favourite ended up being Brock Lesnar. He went from a 4/1 outsider to 2/5 in the three days that the market had been available.

Strowman started out as the fave. His odds were cut along the way, but he closed in second place.

Samoa Joe opened at 4/1. However, his price drifted to 10s. This was when I thought it was worth a speculative punt.

A table with the price changes that I recorded can be found below.

Roman Reigns' SummerSlam 2017 opponent betting

This market was published by the oddsmakers that price up WWE match and specials markets for Kambi. A couple of examples can be found in the links below:


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