Thursday, 12 October 2017

Settling Kambi's Wrestling Observer Specials For WWE Hell In A Cell 2017

Dave Meltzer's Wrestling Observer Newsletter - with his review of WWE Hell in a Cell 2017 - has now been published. This means that the betting specials that focused on the editor's star ratings for the event have now been settled by the oddsmakers from the Kambi Group.

Ahead of last weekend's show, the compilers put up three kinds of betting markets that catered to fans of Meltzer's match ratings. 

The first markets were over/under prop specials for every advertised match where Kambi's clients could have a bet whether a respective match received more, less or exactly the amount of stars the oddsmaker predicted in the next issue of the newsletter.

A second market was a long list where people could have a bet on the bout they believed would earn the most stars in Meltzer's review of the event. 

Market number three offered punters 15/1 that any match on the card received one a strong seal of approval with a review of five stars or more.

Over/Under Betting
As mentioned above, there were markets available for all of the matches that were advertised. However, with Tye Dillinger being added to the US Championship match, this market was voided. I'll explain why when I get to it. 

Kick-Off
The first match of the night saw the newly-formed team of Shelton Benjamin and Chad Gable defeat The Hype Bros on the event's Kick-Off. It received two-and-three-quarter stars in the issue.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Kick Off

The line was set at two-and-a-quarter stars. By Sunday morning, it became clear that the punters were backing the match to be given more than that as the 'Over' was cut from 27/20 to 17/20. It ended up down to 1/2 by match-time. Therefore, the punters were obviously on the right side.

WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship
The line for the opener, which saw The Usos regain the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship from The New Day, was set at three-and-three-quarter stars.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Smackdown Tag Team Championship Match

Not much can be read out of this market because the odds remained stationary from the day they were released right up to the night of the show.

The match was rated the second best of the night with four stars. Anyone who backed the 'Over' will have winning wagers waiting for them in their accounts.

Randy Orton .vs. Rusev
Randy Orton's pinfall win over Rusev was rated three-and-a-quarter stars in Meltzer's review. The line was set at 3.50 Stars.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Randy Orton .vs. Rusev Match

In the table above, you can see that the bettors were taking the 'Under' across the weekend as it opened at even money and was snipped to 13/20 just before the match.

WWE US Championship
The market for the US Championship was first installed on Friday afternoon. Tye Dillinger being added to the bout resulted in the bookmaker voiding the market per the rules.

WWE US Championship Observer Star Ratings Odds For Hell in a Cell 2017

I have highlighted the important part. It reads 'Only ratings given to matches with participants as advertised at time of bet placement (regardless of any eventual changes to match stipulations), will be taken into consideration for settlement purposes.'

WWE Smackdown Women's Championship
Charlotte Flair's disqualification win over Natalya was rated three stars. 

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Smackdown Women's Championship Match

The line was set at three-and-a-half stars. It's apparent, just by looking at how the betting went in the table above, that the customers were gambling on the right side once again as the price for the 'Under' went from 5/4 into 1/2 by match-time.

WWE Championship
Meltzer gave Jinder Mahal's successful WWE Championship defence against Shinsuke Nakamuara two stars. This was under the line, which was set at two-and-three quarter stars.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 WWE  Championship Match

This is another market that closed with no price movement across the two-plus days it was available. Any customer who sided with the under has won. I wouldn't be surprised if the clients had backed the under because - next to 'Any Other Match' at 15/1 - this was the match that the bookies placed right near the bottom of the 'Best Match' market, so they might have concluded it had a chance of being rated lower than the line.

Bobby Roode .vs. Dolph Ziggler
Another market that didn't have any movement was the one for Bobby Roode's victory over Dolph Ziggler. 

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Bobby Roode .vs. Dolph Ziggler Match

The line was put up at three-and-a-half. All three selections were available at 5/4 each. Anyone who decided to back the 'Under' will be winners because the reviewer gave the bout two-and-three-quarter stars.

Shane McMahon .vs. Kevin Owens
Unlike the other bouts on the card, Kambi released an over/under market for the Shane McMahon versus Kevin Owens Hell in a Cell match on September 22nd. The line was set at three-and-a-half stars.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For the HIAC 2017 Main Event Match

The punters were evidently siding with this match to receive more than 3.50 stars because - as the table shows - the odds for the 'Over' went from 27/20 all the way down to 1/2 in the time the market was available.

The money was correct because this was the match of the night and went three quarters over the line.

Overall
Over the weekend, the bookies cut the prices in four markets. Of the four were there was evident betting, the punters were on the right side in every single market. 
Another thing to note is this was the second PPV with the third option where clients could bet on a match receiving exactly X amount of stars. The 'exactly' didn't hit in any of these markets this time, but did for No Mercy 2017.

Highest Rated Match On The Card

The 'Highest Rated Match on the Card' market was published on Friday afternoon. The list consisted of eight selections with the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship match an even money favourite all the way down to an 'Any Other Match' - which would have covered any late changes to the card.

Here's how the market looked from Friday right up until late on Sunday.

Highest Rated Match In The Wrestling Observer For Hell in a Cell 2017 Betting Odds

I've highlighted a rule here to show that, unlike the over/under for the US Championship match where Tye Dillinger being added forced the market to be voided - the Highest Rated Match on the Card market covers this sort of thing because 'Bets stand regardless of any changes in the card'. 

We know that the main event was the match of the night because it received the most stars in the review. Here's how the actual ratings compare to the odds:

Wrestling Observer Newsletter Highest Rated Match On The Card Betting Odds For WWE Hell in a Cell 2017

For the record, I put the Kick Off match's rating as the 'Any Other Match'.

5 Stars Or More?

Any bets on a match receiving five stars or more will be graded as a loss.

If the oddsmaker publishes Observer markets for next weekend's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2017, I'll cover these as well. 

Below are three pages where you'll find these markets when/if they are published for TLC 2017.



2 comments:

  1. I'm assuming the WON staff made a pretty penny this weekend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your assumption skills need some work.

      Delete

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