Wednesday 21 August 2019

How Kambi Settled Its Observer Props For The G1 Climax 29 Final

For the next few days, I plan to publish daily posts about Kambi's G1 Climax 29 props/specials. I don't know how many days this series will run for as I have a lot of markets to get through and don't want to dump everything in one post. They should go live at 12PM BST for at least a week. 

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In late-July, the oddsmakers from Kambi added three more NJPW G1 Climax 29 proposition markets to their coverage of the tournament.

All three were about the tournament final and were Wrestling Observer Newsletter star ratings themed, with two of them also concerning the NXT and WWE shows from the weekend.

As we now know, due to Dave Meltzer's review of the tournament final having been published on Thursday morning, the Kota Ibushi versus Jay White final received five-and-a-half stars from the writer.

In the first proposition of the three, the customers were asked to wager on the final receiving five stars or more. The winning selection was obviously the 'Yes'. 

The eventual winner opened at 3/4 on July 20th and was backed into 11/20 within the first week. There was a moment were the 'No' was moved from 5/4 into 1/2 by July 28th, however - from there - the 'Yes' declined from 7/5 right down to 3/5 across the following days. The prop closed on August 10th, which was the morning of Kota Ibishi's A Block win.

G1 Climax 29 Final Prop - Match To Get 5 Stars Or More?

At the start of this post, I wrote that the three markets were added to the many proposition and specials that Kambi wrote up before the tournament kicked off. One of the earlier markets - which came out on June 23rd - was also about the final and asked customers to place wagers on it being awarded the highest star rating out of all the matches in the tournament.

The Kazuchika Okada .vs. Will Ospreay A Block match from night seven was the best match of the tournament and Ibushi .vs. White's five-and-a-half came half a star short of beating it. Therefore, the 'No' - which was a 13/20 favourite and closed 1/5 over a month later - turned out to be the winning selection.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Final To Be Solely Awarded Highest Star Rating

Back to the most recent props that were released during the tournament.

The second prop saw the G1 Final up against the NXT TakeOver: Toronto main event.

In this proposition, customers were asked to bet whether they felt the G1 Climax final would receive more stars than the NXT Championship match on the night of August 10th.

G1 Climax 29 Final Prop - Final .vs. NXT TakeOver: Toronto

The Adam Cole versus Johnny Gargano bout was given one-and-a-half stars less than the G1 final, so the winning selection - once again - was 'Yes'.

As you can see, the eventual winner opened at 4/5 while its opposing number was 9/10. Whenever the market was adjusted, the 'No' selection was cut the majority of the time. It closed at 3/4 leaving the 'Yes' to finish off out at 19/20. 

The third of the newer Observer-themed props for the G1 final had the bout up against the WWE Universal Championship match at SummerSlam.

In the prop, customers were asked to bet whether or not the G1 Final would beat the Universal Championship match by at least one-and-a-half stars in Meltzer's review.

Brock Lesnar .vs. Seth Rollins was awarded four-and-a-quarter stars, so the winning selection turned out to be the 'No'.

It won by only a quarter of a star.

As you'll see in the table, the eventual winner began as a 7/10 favourite over the 'Yes' at EVS. By the day of SummerSlam, Kambi had both selections at 17/20.

G1 Climax 29 Final Prop - Final .vs. SummerSlam 2019

This is one of a handful of new G1 Climax 29 props/specials posts that I intend to publish over the next few days/weeks. In tomorrow's post, I'll take a look over some of the general proposition markets that were settled following Kota Ibushi's win.

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