Sunday, 5 January 2020

NJPW WrestleKingdom 14 Night Two LIVE

I'm watching night two of New Japan's WrestleKingdom 14 and also following Kambi's odds for the event, so - just like I did yesterday - I intend post updates during the show with the closing betting odds for the matches that are covered.

Times in GMT.

5:18AM
The gauntlet match for the NEVER Openweight 6-Man Tag Team Championship is currently in progress. Kambi didn't have a market for this one, but the rest of the card is covered.

5:29AM
The Los Ingobernables team of EVIL, Shingo Takagi and Bushi won the titles. Here's hoping there'll be an LIJ title celebration at the close of today's show!

6:06AM
The first match on the main part of the card is about to begin. It's Jushin Liger's last match.

As you can see below, the bookmaker opened with Liger and Naoki Sano as 7/10 favourites to win against Ryu Lee and Hiromu Takahashi.

From there, the odds for Lee and Takahashi have shortened and they were down to 2/13 faves when I checked in first thing this morning.

As you can see, the early favourites were out to 7/2 before the market closed.


Date/Time
Liger and Sano
Lee and Takahashi
27/12 6:40PM
7/10
EVS
31/12 5:30PM
13/10
13/25
2/1 7:30PM
8/5
11/25
4/1 7:30AM
19/10
7/20
4/1 11:35AM
5/2
1/4
5/1 4:45AM
7/2
2/13

I backed Lee and Takahashi when the market was first installed.

6:28AM
Lee and Takahashi won the tag match after Takahashi pinned Liger.

And my stream has died...

6:33AM
The stream is back up, but what a disastrous moment for it to go down. It came back just as Liger, Sano and Yoshiaki Fujiwara were leaving.

Next up is the IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Tag Team Championship contest.

Date/Time
Roppongi 3K
Bullet Club
27/12 6:40PM
11/20
5/4
2/1 7:30PM
1/2
7/5
5/1 4:45AM
"
"

Roppongi 3K (Yoh and Sho) started off as 11/20 favourites to beat the current champs, Taiji Ishimori and El Phantasmo, when the market was published a couple of days after Christmas.

The challengers were cut to 1/2 a few days ago and have remained at this price right up to the market's close.

A win for the Bullet Club members was first priced 5/4, but went out to 7/5 when Roppongi 3K's price was lowered.

6:56AM
Sho and Yoh won the titles.

6:59AM
The British Heavyweight Championship is on the line next as Zack Sabre Jr. defends his strap against SANADA.

Date/Time
SANADA
Zack Sabre Jr.
27/12 6:40PM
4/5
9/10
28/12 7:45PM
8/13
23/20
30/12 11:00AM
11/20
5/4
31/12 5:30PM
3/4
19/20
4/1 11:35AM
11/10
13/20
5/1 4:45AM
5/4
11/20

When the market opened on December 27th, the challenger was a slight favourite over the champ. 

Sabre's odds fell from 13/20 into 11/20 overnight and - as a result of this - SANADA was moved from yesterday's 11/10 into 5/4.

I've placed a small bet on SANADA just in case they're going with everyone from Los Ingobernables de Japon to be in possession of titles at the conclusion of tonight's show.

As you can see above, LIJ won the six-man tags, Hiromu Takahashi won the IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Championship yesterday and then it'll all be on Naito to win the IWGP Heavyweight Title in the main event if SANADA were to win this one.

7:17AM
So much for my idea.. ZSJ won!

7:19AM
The IWGP US Championship match is next.

The market for this one is a 'Title Holder at end' rather than a match winner. This is because, when it was published, there were three possible names to leave night two with the championship.

At the time the market was published, Lance Archer was the titleholder. He was 9/4 to still be in possession of the strap at the conclusion of night two. His opponent for night one - Jon Moxley - was 13/5 and the person who was waiting to wrestle the winner of night one - Juice Robinson - was 4/6.


US Titleholder at End of Night 2
Robinson
Archer
Moxley
27/12 6:40PM
4/6
9/4
13/5
28/12 7:45PM
"
19/10
13/4
31/12 5:30PM
4/9
5/2
4/1
3/1 7:00PM
21/50
13/5
"
4/1 11:35AM
1/3
OTB
2/1
5/1 4:45AM
"
"
"

With Moxley beating Archer yesterday, the bookies took Archer off the board and we were left with the challenger 1/3 while Moxley was 2/1 to retain.

For what it's worth, I have a feeling Robinson wins. However, I thought the 2/1 for Moxley was worth a small gamble just in case. 

This is the rubber match of sorts as Moxley beat Robinson in the latter's NJPW debut, Robinson got the win back in the G1 Climax and that was meant to set up a third match between the two. However, Moxley was unable to get to Japan and the title was stripped. This left Robinson .vs. Archer for the vacant title. This was obviously won by Archer.

Another thing that might work in my favour, in regards to my small punt on Moxley, is Robinson won the IWGP Tag Team Championship yesterday.

7:37AM 
Moxley retained the title.

Minoru Suzuki has just came out and it looks like he's about to fight Moxley.

7:40AM
The challenge has been set by Suzuki.

7:43AM
The NEVER Openweight Championship match is up next.


Date/Time
Hirooki Goto
KENTA
27/12 6:40PM
7/10
EVS
2/1 7:30PM
13/20
11/10
5/1 4:45AM
"
"


When the betting market for the bout was first installed, Kambi had the current champion - KENTA - as the underdog. He was EVS while his challenger, Hirooki Goto, was 7/10.

By January 2nd, the odds had moved in favour of Goto as his price slipped into 13/20. The offer for a win from the champ was raised to 11/10.

For what it's worth, I backed KENTA when he was EVS. I'm not completely confident, though.

8:06AM
Goto won the title.

Next up is the Jay White versus Kota Ibushi match.

The market for it was published yesterday afternoon once we knew who the losing participants of the two titles matches were on day one.

As you can see below, Jay White started out as a 7/10 favourite. He was down to 11/20 when I checked in at 4:45AM today. He has since fallen to 11/25.


Date/Time
Jay White
Kota Ibushi
4/1 12:55PM
7/10
EVS
5/1 4:45AM
11/20
5/4
5/1 8:07AM
11/25
8/5

A win for Ibushi will now pay out at 8/5. This is up from the initial price of EVS and the early morning price of 5/4.

8:45AM
The betting was on the right side as Jay White did indeed beat Kota Ibushi.

8:50AM
The market for Hiroshi Tanahashi versus Chris Jericho has now closed. You'll see below that it has been the most active of all markets that Kambi released for the event. This is partially due to the fact that it was first published on November 9th.

Back when it was released, Tanahashi was a 1/3 fave. A decision for Jericho was offered at 2/1.


Date/Time
Hiroshi Tanahashi
Chris Jericho
9/11 1:15PM
1/3
2/1
18/11 4:00PM
1/2
7/5
19/11 6:00PM
3/5
6/5
16/12 4:45PM
3/4
19/20
18/12 11:00AM
4/5
9/10
24/12 8:30PM
7/10
EVS
27/12 6:40PM
13/20
11/10
28/12 7:45PM
11/20
5/4
30/12 11:00AM
11/25
8/5
31/12 5:30PM
9/10
4/5
2/1 7:30PM
19/20
3/4
4/1 12:55PM
4/5
9/10
5/1 4:45AM
17/20
17/20
5/1 8:14AM
13/10
13/25

Jericho's odds have been slipping in the latter stages of betting. I believe this can be attributed to the wrinkle that has been added to this feud with the AEW Champion stating that - should Tanahashi win tonight - he'll get a future AEW Championship challenge against Jericho.

I suppose it made people believe there was no chance of Jericho losing as AEW and NJPW don't currently have a business relationship.

I've backed Tanahashi. My wager was placed when he was 19/20 after NJPW started promoting that Jericho has promised Tanahashi a title shot should he win.

9:20AM
Chris Jericho won.

Main event up next.

9:25AM
As noted in a post published yesterday, Kambi released a market for night two in which customers could bet on which champion would be victorious in the title versus title match. This market was released in November, so the options were 'IWGP Heavyweight Champion (Okada/Ibushi' or 'Intercontinental Champion (Naito/White)'.

Now that we know the IWGP Heavyweight Championship will be defended by Kazuchika Okada and the IWGP Intercontinental Championship will be defended by Tetsuya Naito, Kambi posted a 'Match Winner' market yesterday.

I've combined both markets below.

Date/Time
Heavyweight Champion (Okada/Ibushi)
IC Champion  (Naito/White)
10/11 7:30PM
9/10
4/5
3/12 6:00PM
EVS
7/10
4/1 7:30AM
"
"
Confirmed Match
Kazuchika Okada
Tetsuya Naito
4/1 12:55PM
8/5
11/25
5/1 4:45AM
19/10
7/20
5/1 8:14AM
5/2
1/4

As you can view in the table, Naito's odds fell from 11/25 into 7/20 between yesterday and the early hours of this morning. His price was lowered to 1/4 as the show was in progress.

A win for the IWGP Heavyweight Champion - Okada - closed at 5/2. When Kambi released the market yesterday, he was 8/5 which was slightly shorter than the 9/10 the original market started off with on November 11th.

10:09AM
Naito wins!!!

It was a great match.

I hope you've enjoyed following along over the past two days. I'll have another WrestleKingdom 14 post up later today and will then have an Observer star ratings look back when the reviews are published next week.

For now, I'm going to watch Naito's post-match celebration.

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