Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Superstar Shakeup 2019: To Raw

In February, Kambi published a series of prop betting markets for the 2019 WWE Superstar Shakeup which allowed customers to bet on certain wrestlers changing brands.

In today's post, I'll take a look at the markets of the wrestlers that were moved over from either NXT or Smackdown to Raw and see how their odds changed. Then - in a post that is scheduled to publish before Smackdown - I'll take a look at the prop markets for those who moved from NXT/Raw to the blue brand.

Before I begin, I'd like to point out that - as of the time of writing this post (Monday 10AM BST) - some of the wagers I placed are still unsettled (once they are, they'll be losing anyway). 

Unless I am mistaken, I was under the impression they would be graded last week as the rules stated 'Results will be based on the final brand affiliation at the conclusion of Smackdown broadcast for the applicable week and will disregard any subsequent announcement or future stipulations'. 

The aforementioned rule intrigues me because of what happened with Samoa Joe last week. According to reports, the US Champion was backstage at Raw but fell ill and his move from Smackdown was not confirmed on either show. Nor was it announced via the WWE website between Monday's Raw and Tuesday's Smackdown.

As Joe's move was not made official before the 'conclusion of (the) Smackdown broadcast for the applicable week', I believe the 'No' would be the winning selection once it's settled. IF, I have comprehended the rule correctly.

You can see in the table that - on the first day of the market - the bookies had Joe at 8/5 but, when the market was republished on March 31st, it was a shorter 13/10. The wagering from 31st of March right up to the last day the market was available points to gamblers backing Joe to stay with the blue brand.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: Samoa Joe

Now I'll focus on those who officially switched brands on last week's TVs.

The markets were first installed on February 17th. This was before certain NXT talents popped up on WWE TV. Two of those names were Aleister Black and Ricochet. With both being moved up to work the two other brands ahead of the shakeup, Black and Ricochet were taken off the board.

Their prices on February 17th can be viewed below.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: Aleister Black

Black moving to a new brand from NXT was 3/5. Now that he has been confirmed for the Raw roster, the bets should be settled for 'Yes'.

The same goes for Ricochet in regards to him being a Raw talent. However, the bookies thought he would remain on the NXT roster as they had 'No' at 1/4. The eventual winning selection was 5/2.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: Ricochet

(Update: There have been reports that Aleister Black has been moved to Smackdown. I'll explain more further down)

The Miz - who had jumped for most of the recent shakeups - once again made a move. This time, he went from the blue to red brand. With Miz moving frequently, I was not surprised to see the bookies have him at 1/3 to stay with Smackdown when the market was first priced up. His price to stick with Smackdown was even lowered to 1/4 by late-March.

The eventual winning selection opened at 2/1, drifted to 5/2 but dipped to 9/4 a couple of days before the market closed.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: The Miz

Rey Mysterio was another Smackdown wrestler who switched to Monday's show. The Mysterio market was offering 6/4 for Mysterio to change brands on February 17th. It was still at this price when the market was republished on March 31st but, by April 5th, the oddsmakers removed the market from their coverage. I don't know why for sure, but I would hazard a guess that they stopped taking bets on Mysterio moving to Raw because he worked the match against Baron Corbin on the April 1st edition of the show while still part of the Smackdown roster.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: Rey Mysterio

Andrade, who was brought up from NXT to Smackdown during last year's shakeup, has now found his way to Raw.

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: Andrade

The bookies evidently didn't expect the move as the 'No' was 2/5 at open. The odds for Andrade to switch brands did dip from 7/4 into 8/5 when the special was republished however, the punters seemingly backed the option for Andrade to remain on Smackdown as the 'No' fell from 11/25 into 3/10 and then dropped to 2/7 on the last day of wagering.

(Update: As noted above, this post was written on Monday morning. Since writing, reports that Andrade has been moved back to Smackdown have circulated. I suppose this makes sense considering his real-life partner, Charlotte Flair, has remained on Smackdown. From a betting perspective, and how I have comprehended the blurb, the ruling should still be in favour of 'Yes' as Andrade was moved to Raw before the end of last week's episode of Smackdown concluded as the rules state that 'subsequent announcements' beyond the Smackdown do not count. 
The same goes for Aleister Black, who was initially announced as being signed to Raw but is now apparently moving to Smackdown. This move kind of makes sense considering Black is married to Andrade's on-screen sidekick, Zelina Vega, in real-life).

AJ Styles is the last wrestler in Kambi's markets to move from Smackdown to a different brand. 

Superstar Shakeup Prop Bets: AJ Styles

The 'Yes' was 3/4 on February 17th. It was cut to 8/13 when the market was republished at the end of last month and was then backed into 3/5 and then 1/2 before it closed.

In tomorrow's post, I'll cover the winning 'Yes' selections for the wrestlers who were moved from NXT or Raw to Smackdown. This will be published an hour ahead of Smackdown.

Monday, 22 April 2019

Ambrose Betting Ahead Of 'The Shield's Final Chapter'

We're a few hours away from a match on the WWE Network which is being billed as 'The Shield's Final Chapter'. It'll see Jonathan Good make his final appearance as Dean Ambrose for the time being at least.

With the match taking place tonight, and Good seemingly done with WWE afterwards, I thought I'd publish an update about a betting market that Kambi had priced up in the middle of last month.

It was a prop market offering customers the opportunity to wager on Jonathan Good's next match 'After 23:59 US Pacific Time of May 1 2019'. The options were 'World Wrestling Entertainment' and 'Any Unlisted Promotion'.

'World Wrestling Entertainment' opened at 13/10 while the other selection was a 13/25 favourite on March 15th. By the following day, the WWE selection was cut to 5/4 while its opposition was moved out to 11/20.

From there, the 'Any Unlisted Promotion' selection slid as it went from the aforementioned 11/20 back into 13/25 by March 20th. It was then lowered to 2/5 around March 26th before lowering once more to 1/3.

When the market was last made available - on the night of WrestleMania 35 - 'Any Unlisted Promotion' had moved up to 11/25.

The 'World Wrestling Entertainment' selection was evidently the outsider throughout despite its odds shortening on two occasions - right at the start and near the end.

You can view how I tracked the adjustments by clicking on the table below.

Dean Ambrose / Jonathan Good Next Match After May 1st Betting

For what it's worth, and as I wrote on March 15th, I backed 'World Wrestling Entertainment'. I felt that he would remain with WWE because the company telling media and the fans that Good was leaving was uncharacteristic and I thought it was worth a gamble in case it was leading to an angle of some kind.

On Sunday morning's edition of Wrestling Observer Radio, Dave Meltzer noted that people he has spoken with seem to think that Good is taking a break from the business rather than go elsewhere and they are hopeful that he'll come back eventually. 

The word 'Retirement' was brought up in the segment of the podcast which covered the Ambrose/Good story, but Meltzer stressed that it was a strong word to use here.

If this is the case, it might be a while until any bets on the market are graded.

Saturday, 20 April 2019

New Sky Bet RequestABet Selection For MITB 2019

A new WWE Money in the Bank 2019 selection has been added to Sky Bet's RequestABet page.

The selection allows customers to wager on Roman Reigns and Sasha Banks winning the respective ladder matches that are scheduled for May 19th.

As of the time of writing, it's 50/1.

The RequestABet page was republished this weekend. The three other selections that are available were first priced up on February 16th and focus on the Money in the Bank winner - or winners - cashing in their immediate title shots on the first episode of Smackdown on Fox.

The selections are:

- Either briefcase to be cashed in on the first Smackdown to air on Fox (19th October 2019) which is currently priced at 4/1. It was 9/2 in February.

- Women's briefcase to be cashed in on the first Smackdown to air on Fox (19th October 2019). This was 8/1 when it was initially priced up, but is now at 13/2

- Men's briefcase to be cashed in on the first Smackdown to air on Fox (19th October 2019) is 12/1 - down from 14s

Thursday, 18 April 2019

Post-Shakeup 'Champion After' Catch Up

Earlier today, I published a post in which I mentioned that I had placed a wager on Braun Strowman in Sky Bet's  'United States Champion After Samoa Joe' market. At the time of the post, Joe was 8/1. He has since been cut into 4/6.

I finished the aforementioned post stating that I'd cover the new Sky Bet markets that came out last week following WrestleMania 35 now that they've been adjusted following the Superstar Shakeup. So, here goes..

Universal Champion After Seth Rollins
The selection that stands out - so far - in the market for Seth Rollins' Universal Championship successor is Drew McIntyre.

You'll see, by clicking on the image below, that he was 12/1 when I first came across the market a couple of days after Mania. His price has dropped all the way down to 2/1.

AJ Styles - who is now even more eligible to succeed Rollins as they're now both on the same brand - was 16/1 last week, but is now a 3/1 favourite.

Following Roman Reigns' move from Raw to Smackdown, his selection went out to 20s from 8/1 but - as of this evening - his price is down to 16/1.

Samoa Joe is another selection that has shortened since yesterday. After moving out from 22/1 to 50/1 he has now been snipped into 33/1. This is from a small wager I placed on Joe as I've more or less written off his chances of keeping the US Championship and thought it was worth a punt on him eventually winding up with the red strap.

Universal Champion After Seth Rollins Betting

WWE Champion After Kofi Kingston
The big story coming out of this week's shakeup was Roman Reigns' move from Raw to Smackdown. As a result of this switch, the bookies went from offering Reigns at double figures to 3/1 favourite to succeed Kofi Kingston for the WWE Championship.

The market is unchanged from yesterday's post-shakeup update, so you can view how the other selections moved by clicking on the image below.

WWE Champion After Kofi Kingston Betting

Raw Women's Champion After Becky Lynch
Lacey Evans has remained a 4/1 favourite to be the next WWE Raw Women's Champion in the market in which customers can place wagers on Becky Lynch's successor for the red brand's title.

Former champ, Ronda Rousey, was moved from 6/1 to 4/1 within the first day. She remains at this price post-shakeup.

Other selections to move in following Monday and Tuesday were Sasha Banks (7/1 to 5/1), Ruby Riott (25/1 to 10/1), Natalya (25/1 to 12/1), Naomi (40/1 to 14/1), Dana Brooke (25/1 to 20/1) and Sarah Logan (50/1 to 40/1).

WWE Raw Women's Champion After Becky Lynch Betting

Smackdown Women's Champion After Becky Lynch
Charlotte Flair went from 5/2 into 7/4 in the market to succeed Lynch for the Smackdown Women's Title. 

Asuka, who was also 5/2 last week, has drifted out to 7/1. There's a good reason why - she looks destined to be in the tag division for the time being.

Two of Smackdown's latest signings - Bayley and Ember Moon - have both moved in from 50/1 into 9/1 each.

Other selections to lower since the TVs are: Carmella (12/1 to 10/1), Mandy Rose (12/1 to 10/1), Ronda Rousey (was 14/1 on April 9th, moved to 11/1 on April 10th but ow 10/1), Nikki Cross (20/1 to 16/1), Sasha Banks (25/1 to 16/1), Sonya Deville (20/1 to 16/1), Kairi Sane (33/1 to 20/1) Liv Morgan (80/1 to 40/1) and Mickie James (80/1 to 50/1).

WWE Smackdown Women's Champion After Becky Lynch Betting

Intercontinental Champion After Finn Balor
With Finn Balor moving over to Smackdown from Raw, there has been a major update to the market.

Intercontinental Champion After Finn Balor Betting

A lot of the Raw roster, who were in the running before Balor's move, have been taken off the board while Smackdown talent have been added. The most notable are Ali, Daniel Bryan and Randy Orton who are all available at 6/1 each.


Raw Tag Team Champions After Curt Hawkins and Zack Ryder
Following their WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship loss to Matt and Jeff Hardy, The Usos were added to the 'Raw Tag Team Championship After Curt Hawkins and Zack Ryder' market at 4/1. They were then cut to 3/1 and were 5/2 on ahead of Monday's Raw. When the market was republished on Wednesday - and obviously after Jimmy and Jey were officially named as Raw signings - they were moved down to 11/10.

NXT's Tag Team Champions - The War Raiders The Viking Experience - were also brought up to Raw on Monday night. The team was already available ahead of their call-up at 14/1, but was 7/2 yesterday and is now down to 3/1.

Raw Tag Team Champions After Hawkins and Ryder Betting

Smackdown Tag Team Champions After The Hardy Boyz

Smackdown Tag Team Champions After The Hardys Betting

The Bar and The New Day were 9/2 to succeed Matt and Jeff Hardy when the market was published a day following the Hardys' win over The Usos on last week's Smackdown. They have since moved in to 5/2.

Heavy Machinery, who were officially announced as Smackdown talent this week, have been cut from 10/1 into 4/1.

Rusev and Shinsuke Nakamura, who were still a tandem on TV this week, have had their odds halved from 8/1.

WWE Women's Tag Team Champions After The IIconics
On Tuesday's Smackdown, Paige revealed the team she had lined up for The IIconics were Asuka and Kairi Sane. They were instant favourites when the 'Champs After The IIconics' market was published on Wednesday.

Another team that has shortened since Tuesday is Mandy Rose and Sony Deville. Their selection was initially 5/1 on April 9th, but drifted to 6/1 the following day. This was likely due to punters assuming that Paige's team would be Kairi Sane and Io Shirai as their price was snipped from 8/1 into 3/1. The Sane and Shirai selection went all the way down to 6/4 before the market was closed ahead of TVs and is now off the board following the pairing of Shirai and Asuka.

Women's Tag Team Champions After The IIconics Betting

All the prices mentioned in this post were correct as of 7PM BST this evening.


A Gamble On Strowman To Succeed Samoa Joe As US Champ

I have just had a gamble on Sky Bet's 'United States Champion After Samoa Joe' market.

The selection I've gone for is a person who is currently not on the same roster as Joe - Braun Strowman.

I've placed the bet because Joe and Strowman had an altercation on TV last week.

As noted, both are on opposing brands, but - according to reports - Joe was meant to appear on this week's Raw as a new signing from Smackdown but was unwell and he did not make an appearance on the show.

Nor did he appear on Smackdown. However, Finn Balor - who is a fellow secondary titleholder as Intercontinental Champion - did.

With both the IC and US Title currently on the blue brand, I strongly believe that Joe was meant to move over before to Raw before he took ill on Monday, so I'm gambling on him making the move over and entering a feud with the person he had beef with on last week's edition of Smackdown.

Strowman was not a selection when I made a personal note of the odds yesterday morning. I have backed him at 10/1. He's now down to 8/1.

By the way - I will cover Sky Bet's 'Champion After' markets over the next day or so. They've had a number of obvious changes made to them now that the rosters have been shaken up.

Tuesday, 16 April 2019

More About Ronda's Break Prop

It was interesting to see Ronda Rousey announce that she was taking an - and I cannot believe I am going to write the next few words - 'Impregnation Vacation' with her husband, Travis Browne, in an Instagram picture that was published yesterday.

It was intriguing not only because Dave Meltzer could now be vindicated for a report he wrote months ago that stated Rousey was likely to take time away from WWE following WrestleMania 35 to start a family but also because of the date the post was published.

If you recall, I pointed out at the start of the month that BetOnline had published a prop market in which customers could bet whether or not 'Ronda Rousey announces a break from WWE'.

The now controversial part of the market is that the announcement had to have been made by today.

Ronda Rousey Prop Bet


Ronda obviously didn't straight up announce that she was taking a break from WWE, but yesterday's Instagram post sure did tease that she was about to take a hiatus.

Seeing as I wrote back at the start of the month that I didn't think Rousey would announce any sort of departure from WWE before April 16th, and am now unsure whether the Instagram post can be considered as an announcement, I asked a British bookmaker how he would settle the market if he were in charge of it.

He feels that the 'No' would be the right call in this situation because there wasn't a clear - and official - announcement made by Rousey via proper channels. He also stated that he would have settled in favour of the 'Yes' if WWE had made some sort of official announcement on its platforms.

Seeing as neither has happened by today, his call would have been to settle with 'No' as the winning selection.

Speaking of Ronda, how's this one for a plot twist?

Vince McMahon has announced that - on tonight's edition of Smackdown - the 'biggest acquisition' in the show's history will be unveiled.

On the surface, you'd assume it's Roman Reigns.

But, what if it's Ronda?

Monday, 15 April 2019

Next WWE Title To Change Hands Update For 15/4/19

Sky Bet's 'Next Title To Change Hands' market has been taken down as scheduled, so I thought it was worth pointing out some changes that were made to it following last Wednesday's post in which I mentioned it had been refreshed following The Hardys' WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship triumph over The Usos.

When I last wrote about the market, the bookies had joint 3/1 favourites in the Raw and Women's Tag Team Championships. 

By Thursday, the Raw Tag Team Championship selection had moved in to 2/1. As a result - the Smackdown Women's Championship and Universal Championship were increased. Both were originally as 10/1, but the former went to 12s and the Universal Championship moved to 14/1.

Next WWE Title To Change Hands - April 15 2019

On last week's episode of Smackdown, Paige teased that she would bring in a team to challenge The IIconics for the women's tag straps, so I was quite surprised to not have seen that selection move in. With that said, I guess it did make sense to see the Raw Tag Team Championship snipped because it had potential to change hands twenty-four hours before the other.

I wrote 'had potential' because tonight's show has apparently had some rewrites due to some stars having trouble getting to Montreal.  For example, Zack Ryder tweeted last night that his flight from Newark was cancelled and he had to wait between two and six hours for his luggage to be given back to him. 

I haven't placed any bets on this market as of the time of writing. This is mainly because I wasn't confident enough to bet against The IIconics because - if I were to have placed a speculative punt - I would have gambled on the second-favourite just in case WWE wants to have Paige's team make an immediate impact. 

Without knowing for sure who Paige is bringing it made it a pass.

Saturday, 13 April 2019

How Kambi's WrestleMania 35 Observer Head-to-Head And Prop Markets Were Settled

Over the past day, I've published a few posts about Kambi's Wrestling Observer Newsletter star ratings betting markets for NXT TakeOver: New York and WrestleMania 35. In this final part, I'll take a look over two other kinds of markets that were available to customers leading into the event. They are head-to-head specials and prop bets.

Head-to-Heads

In head-to-head - or matchbet - wagering, the customer is given two matches and they have the option to bet on which of the two receives the most stars in Dave Meltzer's review of the event. A third selection is also there to cover both matches possibly getting the same number of stars.

Kambi published three versions of these specials for WrestleMania.

Styles/Orton .vs. Reigns/McIntyre
When Kambi put AJ Styles .vs. Randy Orton up against the Roman Reigns .vs. Drew McIntyre match up, the company had the former as a 19/20 favourite. And, going by the wagering, the customers thought it was a rightful fave as it was cut into 10/11 by April 3rd and was then snipped to 4/5 on the night of the event.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting: Head-to-Head Markets: WrestleMania 35

The bettors were spot on. AJ Styles versus Randy Orton received three-and-a-quarter stars while its opposition was graded two.

Triple H/Batista .vs. McMahon/The Miz
When first published, the market which had the no holds barred match up against the one with falls count any rules had Triple H .vs. Batista open as an 11/25 favourite. The McMahon versus The Miz match was 11/5. The customers evidently sided with the falls count anywhere contest as it was the selection that fell the majority of the time that the market was available. By the end, the two markets were at 19/20 and the 'Same Star Rating' option, which started off at 41/20. was 9/4.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting: Head-to-Head Markets: WrestleMania 35

The result was a win for Triple H .vs. Batista. It was given two stars. Shane and The Miz failed to match it by a quarter.

Universal Championship .vs. Smackdown and Raw Women's Championship
Brock Lesnar's Universal Championship loss to Seth Rollins was awarded three-and-a-half stars. It was paired off with the main event, which had three stars.

You'll see, by clicking the table below, that the eventual winner began to drift out on March 26th and closed at 11/4. It was initially 5/4 on March 2nd.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting: Head-to-Head Markets: WrestleMania 35

Specials and Prop Bets

Kambi also published a handful of Observer-themed prop bets for the PPV. Most offered a 'Yes' or 'No' option, but two specials only allowed  'Yes'. I'll get to those first and then go through the.. err.. proper prop bets.

Better Than TakeOver?
The bookies were offering 2/1 that the highest rated match on the WrestleMania 35 card would have more stars than anything that was graded in Meltzer's review of NXT TakeOver: New York. As I mentioned in one of yesterday's posts, Johnny Gargano's win over Adam Cole in the main event was given five-and-a-half stars. The highest rated match at Mania - Daniel Bryan .vs. Kofi Kingston - came a star short from tying let alone beating it.

Better Than ROH/NJPW G1 Supercard?
4/1 was being offered on the highest rated WrestleMania match beating the best match - or matches - on the Ring of Honor and New Japan show that took place from Madison Square Garden the night before. The only match that beat Kofi's title win was the main event, which saw Kazuchika Okada claim the IWGP Heavyweight Championship from Jay White. It received four-and-three-quarters.

There was another 'Better Than' special, but this did give customers the option to wager on the 'No', so I've included it in the prop bet coverage below the image of the prop market titles and how their odds were adjusted leading into the event.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting: WrestleMania 35 Prop Bets

Better Than WrestleMania 34?
The proposition market titled 'Better Than WrestleMania 34?' was similar to the above two markets in that the customer had to bet whether one of the matches on the WrestleMania 35 card would perform better than any on another card. This time, however, the customers were wagering on the highest rated match at this year's WrestleMania doing better than the one from 2018. The customers were able to bet 'No' on this. It opened at 7/5 while the 'Yes' was 1/2.
The match that had to be beaten was Ronda Rousey and Kurt Angle .vs. Triple H and Stephanie McMahon, which was given four-and-a-quarter in Meltzer's review of WrestleMania 34. With Kofi Kingston's win over Daniel Bryan getting a quarter more than that, the winning selection was the favourite. 
As you can see, the consensus agreed this year's highest rated match would beat last year's. The odds were moved to 1/3 from 2/5 on the night of the event.

Curtain Raiser
The market titled 'Curtain Raiser' allowed punters to bet whether or not the first match on the main card would turn out to be the highest rated match on the card. It turned out to be Brock Lesnar .vs. Seth Rollins which - in a way - had the potential to do well. The winning selection was obviously 'No'. It opened at 1/6 and was last seen by yours truly at 1/5 in the afternoon of April 6th. I surmise the reason why it was taken off the board is due to reports that AJ Styles versus Randy Orton - another match that had potential on paper to get the most stars - was scheduled to be the main card opener.

Joint-Winners
The prop titled 'Join-Winners' was an opportunity to wager on or against there being two or more matches with the highest amount of stars in Meltzer's review. With Bryan .vs. Kingston being the only match with the highest number of stars, the winning selection was once again the 'No'. It was 1/2 to start off with before falling to 11/25, but managed to drift back up to its earlier price by Sunday evening.
I had a bet on this market, but I went the wrong way. I backed 'Yes' when it was 7/5 on March 15th. I felt that, with a card filled with tons of matches, there was a strong chance that there would be a tie when it comes to matches with the highest star ratings.

Pre-Show
The 'Pre Show' proposition was for any of the matches on the pre-show to be given the highest star ratings in Dave Meltzer's review. Unsurprisingly, the bookies had the eventual winner - 'No' - a very short 2/13 when I came across the market on March 16th. It was down to 1/12 by April 3rd and remained that way right up until the close.

Title Match
The 'Title Match' prop was for any match 'valid for any championship' would be awarded the most stars in the review. With Bryan .vs. Kingston obviously being for the WWE Title, this was a win for those who may have backed 'Yes'. And, if you look at the table above, it looks like many did as the selection opened at 1/8 on March 16th, was backed into 1/10 by March 20th and fell into 1/12 a week after that. It closed at a mildly higher 2/13 after the 'No' was cut from 5/1 into 7/2 in early April.

Women
Finally, the market titled 'Women' was available for customers to bet a women's match receiving the most stars in Meltzer's review. With the main event and the battle royal only being eligible, it was safe to conclude that - for it to win in favour of 'Yes' - the main event had to be the match of the night.

You'll see the consensus went with the 'Yes' as it fell from its opening 19/10 to 5/4. The 'No' remained a favourite throughout, but it drifted to 11/20 from 7/20 over the three weeks it was available.

This was the fourth Observer star ratings betting post within the past day or so. The other posts are:




I'll return to the Observer specials next month if Kambi releases anything for Money in the Bank 2019. 

Betting odds from Kambi's WWE Markets