Saturday, 15 December 2018

Kambi's Observer Star Ratings Markets For TLC 2018 Published

The Kambi oddsmakers have just published their Wrestling Observer Newsletter star ratings markets for tomorrow night's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 PPV.

As per usual, customers of the sportsbooks with Kambi's specials can wager on a variety of Observer markets. There are over/under specials for all of the bouts scheduled to take place on the show, a head-to-head where two matches expected to be good quality square off against one another to get the most stars, a market that will pay out on the 'Exact Star Rating Of The Highest Rated Match On The Card' and one for the 'Highest Rated Match On The Card'.

The WWE Smackdown Women's Championship is a 6/4 favourite to be the match of the night in Dave Meltzer's review of the PPV. It is followed by Daniel Bryan versus AJ Styles at 7/4.

Buddy Murphy versus Cedric Alexander for the WWE Cruiserweight Championship and Seth Rollins' Intercontinental Championship defence against Dean Ambrose are both at 5/2 each while the Smackdown Tag Team Championship bout is 5/1 followed by Ronda Rousey versus Nia Jax at 9/1.

Those looking to back any of the other matches that haven't been given individual pricing - to receive the most stars in next week's issue of the newsletter -  can find 'Any Unlisted Match' at 15/1.

'Exactly 4.5 Stars' and 'Exactly 4.25 Stars' are joint-favourites at 7/4 in the 'Exact Star Rating of the Highest Rated Match on the Card' market.

A four star match is 9/4 as is the selection that covers '4.75 Stars or More'. They are followed by 'Exactly 3.75 Stars' at 4s and the option to wager on the top match receiving three-and-a-half stars or below is 7/1.

The aforementioned head-to-head special has the Daniel Bryan versus AJ Styles match up against Becky Lynch's WWE Smackdown Women's Championship defence against Asuka and Charlotte Flair in a three-way TLC match. The bookies have given the latter 9/10, Bryan versus Styles is 19/20 and the option to guess that both matches receive the same amount of stars is 12/5.

The Over/Under lines for the card are as follows:

Strowman .vs. Corbin - 2.25 Stars
Rollins .vs. Ambrose - 3.75 Stars
Mixed Match Challenge Final - 1.25 Stars
Rousey .vs. Jax - 3.5 Stars
Smackdown Women's Championship Triple Threat - 4.25 Stars
Bryan .vs. Styles - 4.25 Stars
Balor .vs. McIntyre 3.5 Stars
Elias .vs. Lashley - 2.25 Stars
Smackdown Tag Team Championship Triple Threat - 3.75 Stars
Natalya .vs. Riott - 2.25 Stars
Murphy .vs. Alexander - 3.75 Stars
Mysterio .vs. Orton - 3.25 Stars

I haven't bet on any of these markets just yet. However, I find the Strowman .vs. Corbin O/U appealing. If the match happens, it's safe to presume that Braun Strowman will be limited in what he can do. It could turn out to be a mess. I'm going to gamble on it being received poorly and take the under as soon as I've published this post.

It's worth noting that there's also a chance of the bet not standing.

If it's a short squash that lasts a few minutes or less, I doubt it'll get a rating, so the bet could potentially end up voided.

Wagers will be settled when next week's issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter is published. This is usually on a Thursday morning UK time.

5Dimes' WWE TLC 2018 Odds For Saturday Morning

I checked in with the 5Dimes Sportsbook's markets for tomorrow night's PPV an hour ago. Here are all the changes that have been made since last night.


  • Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox's price to win the Mixed Match Challenge final have lowered. When I checked in at 11PM GMT yesterday, they were at +260. As of this morning, customers were being offered +220. Carmella and R-Truth remain favourites despite drifting out from -380 into -300
  • The punters have also backed another underdog in Seth Rollins as he is now +155 to get a decision over Dean Ambrose. He was +165 last night. As a result, Dean Ambrose has moved to -195 from -215
  • Braun Strowman is now a -420 favourite to beat Baron Corbin. He was -410 yesterday. A win for Corbin will now pay out at +300 - up from +290
  • Ronda Rousey is still a -1,050 favourite to beat Nia Jax (+550) in the WWE Raw Women's Championship market
  • WWE Champion, Daniel Bryan, is now a -420 favourite to successfully retain his strap against AJ Styles after falling from -350 into -390 on Thursday night. A decision for Styles is now +300 - up from +270
  • Finn Balor's price to beat Drew McIntyre has been cut from +450 into +400. A win in favour of McIntyre is now being offered at -600, which is up from last night's -750
  • Bobby Lashley is now a -160 favourite to beat Elias in the ladder match. He was -155 yesterday. As a result, Elias has slightly moved up to +120 from +115
  • The Usos and The New Day have dropped in the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship market. The Usos were +180, but are now at +140 and The New Day have fallen to +305 from +310. The current champs, The Bar, have moved up from -110 into +130
  • Natalya is now a -600 favourite to get a decision over Ruby Riott in the tables match. She was previously -380. Riott has risen to +400 from +260
  • Cedric Alexander is now a +145 underdog to be declared a victor over WWE Cruiserweight Champion - Buddy Murphy. The challenger was +165 yesterday. The champ has moved up from -215 into -185
  • Rey Mysterio went from +140 into +120 in the market for his chairs match against Randy Orton. The Viper is now at -160 which is up from last night's -180
  • Both Asuka and WWE Smackdown Women's Champion - Becky Lynch - have dropped in the market for the TLC match. Asuka fell from +255 into +180 and Lynch from +205 into +175. With both of these names moving in, the oddsmakers have moved Charlotte Flair up to +155 from -105. I'm even more intrigued to see how this match plays out now that Vince McMahon is coming back on Monday's Raw in order to 'Shake things up'. As I've written in previous posts, I had Charlotte Flair to win this match with Asuka a close second. Flair as champion would allow for a meeting between Flair and Ronda Rousey at the Rumble, but - if the shake up has anything to do with moving talent to opposing brands or cutting the brand split entirely - Flair doesn't necessarily have to win this match now. In fact, Ronda costing Flair and then having Asuka walk away as Champion would not surprise me at this stage. The bottom line - Flair as champion might not matter if there is some sort of talent swap from Monday.
Odds from The 5Dimes Website.

Friday, 14 December 2018

WWE TLC 2018 Odds Notes For Friday Night

I've just taken a look over the 5Dimes Sportsbook's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 betting markets in order to compare tonight's odds with this morning's visit. Here are some notes.


  • Randy Orton has dropped from -150 into -180 to win the chairs match against Rey Mysterio. With Orton's price moving in, the bookies have moved Mysterio to +140 from +110
  • Buddy Murphy has lowered from -190 into -215 in WWE Cruiserweight Championship betting. A decision in favour of Cedric Alexander is now +165 - up from +150
  • Ruby Riott has dipped from +275 into +260 in wagering on her tables match with Natalya (-395 to -380)
  • The Usos have been cut from +200 into +180 in the Smackdown Tag Team Championship market. Current champs, The Bar, stay at -110 while The New Day has moved up to +310 from -430
  • Bobby Lashley remains a -155 favourite to beat Elias (+115) in the ladder match
  • Drew McIntyre is now a -750 favourite to defeat Finn Balor. He was at -565 earlier while Balor has risen to +450 from +375
  • Charlotte Flair was +120 to win the TLC match for the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship. She is now down to -105 with 'The Field' versus Flair moving up to -135 from -160. A decision in favour of Becky Lynch - which was at +190 this morning - is now being offered at +205 while Asuka has risen to +255 from +215
  • No change in the WWE Championship market. AJ Styles is still a +270 to get a decision over Daniel Bryan (-390)
  • Ronda Rousey is still -1,050 to successfully retain the WWE Raw Women's Championship against Nia Jax (+550)
  • Braun Strowman is now at -410 from -380 to beat Baron Corbin who is now at +290 from +260
  • Seth Rollins is still a +165 for his WWE Intercontinental Championship defence against Dean Ambrose (-215)
  • The team of Carmella and R-Truth have dropped to -380 from -335 in the market for the Mixed Match Challenge Final. Their opponents, Mahalicia (Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal) have risen to +260 from +245
Price correct as of 11PM GMT and taken from the 5Dimes Website.

TLC 2018 Markets Posted By Paddy Power

Paddy Power and Betfair's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 betting markets have now been published.

They first started appearing on the sportsbooks' websites within the last hour or so.

As of the time of writing, all but one of the matches are covered.

The one that hasn't posted yet is the one for the Smackdown Women's Championship. Considering it has a strong chance of being Sunday's main event, I'm sure it'll find its way onto the websites imminently (if it hasn't done so by the time you're reading this).

New 5Dimes TLC 2018 Markets And More

The oddsmakers from the 5Dimes Sportsbook have added new WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 match markets to their coverage of this weekend's PPV. As well as this, most of the markets that have been available for the past few days have had some adjustments made to them,

The sportsbook has priced up Carmella and R-Truth (Fabulous Truth) as favourites to win the Mixed Match Challenge final. They're -335 over Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal (Mahalicia) at +245.

Rey Mysterio will take on Randy Orton in a chairs match. The bookies have installed Orton as a favourite. He's currently -150 while Mysterio is +110.

WWE Cruiserweight Champion, Buddy Murphy, is -190 to successfully defend his strap against previous titleholder - Cedric Alexander (+150).

Natalya is -395 to topple Ruby Riott (+275) in a tables match.

As noted, the rest of the betting markets for the show were published before this morning. Only one of these markets is unchanged from when I made my last visit to the site. Finn Balor is still a +375 underdog to Drew McIntyre's -565.

Here are the changes that have been made to the rest of the board.

WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship
The Bar has moved in to retain their titles against The New Day and The Usos.


Date/Time
The Bar
The Usos
New Day
10/12 3:00PM
+110/-150
+223/-303
+205/-285
11/12 9:00AM
"
+200/-280
+230/-310
14/12 8:30AM
-110/-130
"
"

The titleholders had stalled at +110 when their challengers' prices were moved around three days ago. However, they've now been placed at -110. The Usos remain at +200 and New Day stay at +230.

Those looking to bet against The Bar can find 'The Field' at -130.

Elias .vs. Bobby Lashley
Bobby Lashley's odds to beat Elias in the ladder guitar match have dipped since I checked in last night. 

Lashley was -140, but is now at -155. Elias has moved in the opposite direction by arriving to +115 from +100.

WWE Smackdown Women's Championship
I was surprised to see this one.


Date/Time
Asuka
Charlotte
Becky
10/12 3:00PM
+120/-160
+110/-150
+340/-510
11/12 9:00AM
+150/-190
+105/-145
+350/-530
12/12 10:00PM
"
-125/-115
"
14/12 8:30AM
+215/-295
+120/-160
+190/-270

At least one customer has backed Becky Lynch to retain the Smackdown Women's Championship in the TLC match. She is now +190 - a drop from the +350 she had been since Tuesday morning.

With Lynch's odds coming down, the bookies have moved Asuka up to +215 from +150 and Charlotte Flair to +120 from -120.

Daniel Bryan .vs. AJ Styles
Daniel Bryan's odds to retain the WWE Championship have moved in from -350 into -390 while Styles has moved up to +270 from +250.

Ronda Rousey .vs. Nia Jax
Ronda Rousey's odds to retain the WWE Raw Women's Championship have now been slashed into -1,050. They had been at -900 since Tuesday morning. A win for Nia Jax will now pay out at odds of +550 - up from +500.

Braun Strowman .vs. Baron Corbin
Baron Corbin's price to get the W against Braun Strowman has been lowered from +280 into +260. As a result, Strowman has drifted to -380 from -400.

Seth Rollins .vs. Dean Ambrose
The customers have once again sided with Dean Ambrose to beat Intercontinental Champion - Seth Rollins.

Ambrose is now at -215. This is a slight drop from the -180 he had been since Tuesday. Seth Rollins is now at +165, which is up from +140.

Prices correct as of 8:30AM GMT. The latest can be found on The 5Dimes Website.

Thursday, 13 December 2018

First MMC Season Two Final Market Published

The first betting market for the season two final of the Mixed Match Challenge has now been published.

Kambi has opened the market with the team of Carmella and R-Truth as 2/5 favourites to win the match against Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal during the Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 PPV on Sunday night.

As of the time of writing, Fox and Mahal have been installed as 7/4 outsiders.

The winning team will receive a vacation and enter in the number thirty spots of their respective Royal Rumbles.

Personally, I hope the vacation segments happen in the week of the Rumble and there's a storyline reason like a missed flight home to explain why they cannot enter the battle royal in the final spot.

In September, I wrote that Carmella and R-Truth stood out to me when I ran down the list of runners in Sky Bet's outright markets. In the very same post, I wrote that 'I don't think Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox have a chance'.

Sunday has come down to lucky foresight or failing miserably. There's no middle ground here.

Wednesday, 12 December 2018

TLC Match Odds Update

There has been a minor change in one of the WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 betting markets that are available from the 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Charlotte Flair - who lost via disqualification in a match against Asuka on last night's episode of Smackdown - has had her odds lowered in a market for the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship triple threat match.

The former Smackdown Women's Champion is now -125 to regain the title in the TLC match on Sunday. She had been +105.

Despite Flair's odds moving in, the price for her opponents - Asuka and champion, Becky Lynch - remain at the respective numbers of +150 and +350.


Date/Time
Asuka
Charlotte
Becky
10/12 3:00PM
+120/-160
+110/-150
+340/-510
11/12 9:00AM
+150/-190
+105/-145
+350/-530
12/12 10:00PM
"
-125/-115
"


Those looking to bet on 'The Field' against Flair can now find the option at -115. This is an increase from -145.

The rest of 5Dimes' odds for Sunday's show are showing the same pricing as Yesterday Morning.

Prices correct as of 10PM GMT and available from The 5Dimes Website.

Tuesday, 11 December 2018

Kambi Also Taking Bets On 2 New TLC 2018 Matches

In the most recent post, I noted that the Sky Bet oddsmakers had opened betting on two of the latest additions to the Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 card. Kambi has also installed markets for the two matches.

As of the time of writing, Natalya is a 2/13 fave to beat Ruby Riott (7/2) in the tables match while Buddy Murphy is a 3/5 to score a decision over Cedric Alexander (6/5) in a WWE Cruiserweight Championship defence.

2 More TLC 2018 Match Markets From Sky Bet

A couple more WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 match markets have been published by the oddsmakers from Sky Bet today.

They have installed Natalya as a 1/8 favourite to beat Ruby Riott in the tables match. A win for Riott will pay out at 9/2.

On last night's Raw, it was announced that there will be a rematch from Super Show-Down with Buddy Murphy defending the WWE Cruiserweight Championship against former titleholder - Cedric Alexander.

As of the time of writing, the champion is a 4/6 favourite to retain with a decision over Alexander (11/10).

The addition of the two new markets mean that Sky Bet is accepting wagers on all of the matches that have so far been confirmed for Sunday's show.

Another MMC Change

There has been yet another change in the Mixed Match Challenge tournament.

This time, Apollo Crews has replaced Finn Balor in the team with Bayley. They're set to take on Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox in one of tonight's semi-finals.

Per Kambi's rules, bets on the match winner will be settled as void if Balor is not featured in the bout later on tonight.

It was a market that had been available from the start of the month right up to 5PM GMT yesterday and had sided with Bayley and Balor throughout.


Date/Time
Fox and Mahal
Bayley and Balor
1/12 1:00PM
11/20
5/4
3/12 2:30PM
13/20
11/10
5/12 3:00PM
4/6
21/20
10/12 4:00PM
4/5
9/10


The team had opened at 5/4, but were 9/10 yesterday.

Bayley and Balor were one of the teams I picked to win the tournament before the season began. I now have one team left in play.

A match market for the second semi-final booked for tonight was also taken down yesterday.


Date/Time
Carmella and R-Truth
Asuka and The Miz
5/12 3:00PM
1/3
2/1
10/12 4:00PM
3/10
11/5


The Smackdown semi-final, which will see Carmella and R-Truth compete against Asuka and The Miz, closed with Carmella and R-Truth 3/10 favourites. They had been backed into this price after opening at 1/3 five days earlier.

Carmella and R-Truth is the other team I backed to win the tourney before it kicked off, so I am hopeful that the bettors picked the right side in this round of betting.

A win for last season's winners closed at 11/5 - up from their opening 2/1.

5Dimes' WWE TLC 2018 Odds For Tuesday Morning

There have been a few changes to the WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 betting markets that are available to customers of the 5Dimes Sportsbook since yesterday.

Seth Rollins' odds to retain the WWE Intercontinental Championship with a win over Dean Ambrose have risen to +140 from yesterday's +120. As a result, Dean Ambrose's role as favourite has moved in from -160 to -180.

Braun Strowman's price to beat Baron Corbin in a TLC match has dropped into -400 from -390 while his opponent has moved up to +280 from +270.

Ronda Rousey is now a -900 favourite to successfully retain the WWE Raw Women's Championship against Nia Jax. She was -750 yesterday. As a result, punters can now find Jax at +500 - an increase from +450.

The Smackdown Women's Championship market now has Charlotte Flair at +105. She was +110 yesterday. The other challenger - Asuka - is now at +150, but was +120 yesterday. A win for the titleholder, Becky Lynch, is now being offered at +350 - an increase of ten points.

Those looking to oppose Lynch by taking 'The Field' can find the selection at -530, which is down from -510.

The WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship triple threat match has also been adjusted. The Bar remain at +110 to retain, The New Day has drifted to +230 from +205 and The Usos are down from +223 into +200.

The Field .vs. The Bar remains at -150.

Elias is now a +100 underdog to win his match with Bobby Lashley. He was +115 yesterday.  On last night's Raw, it was announced that this will be contested as a ladder match. A win in favour of Lashley will now pay out at -140, which is up from -155.

The markets for the other matches on the board are still where they were yesterday.

Finn Balor +375
Drew McIntyre -565

Daniel Bryan -350
AJ Styles +250

Odds from 5DIMES.

Monday, 10 December 2018

TLC 2018 Odds From 5Dimes

The 5Dimes Sportsbook is now taking bets on this weekend's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 PPV.

Here are the odds as of 3PM GMT today.

The triple threat tag team match for the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship has The Bar at +110 to retain. Their opponents, The New Day and The Usos, are +205 and +223 respectively.

Elias is a +115 outsider for his match with Bobby Lashley (-155).

Finn Balor is out at +375 for his battle with Drew McIntyre (-565).

WWE Intercontinental Champion, Seth Rollins, is a +120 underdog for his defence against Dean Ambrose. A successful wager on the challenger will pay out at -160.

Braun Strowman has been installed as a favourite to defeat Baron Corbin in the TLC match. He's -390 to Corbin's +270.

Ronda Rousey is -750 for her WWE Raw Women's Championship defence against Nia Jax (+450).

Daniel Bryan is -350 to successfully retain the WWE Championship against AJ Styles (+250).

The match that I'm keen to see play out is the triple threat TLC match for the Smackdown Women's Championship. Current titleholder, Becky Lynch, is +340 to retain. A win for Asuka will pay out at +120 and one in favour of Charlotte Flair is +110. Those who might want to bet against the champ can find 'The Field' at -510.

Prices correct as of 3PM GMT and taken from the 5Dimes Website.

Saturday, 8 December 2018

All Elite Wrestling Specials

A number of wrestling special markets - all about a possible new wrestling promotion - were brought to my attention this evening.

The specials, available from the BetOnline Website, concern AEW (All Elite Wrestling) - a company that is reportedly in development and is being bankrolled by the son of Jacksonville Jaguars owner, Shahid Khan.

The Young Bucks, Cody Rhodes, Kenny Omega and Hangman Page are obviously involved with the potential new promotion as the Bucks and Omega all own the copyright to using the 'Elite' name for merchandising within pro wrestling.

As for the specials - customers of the websites can place bets on where the aforementioned names sign their next contracts. As well as those proposition markets, clients can also bet on the following:

- What Role Will Jim Ross Have With AEW?
- All Elite Wrestling To Be Announced By 31st January 2019?
- All Elite Wrestling To Announce A TV Deal?

The Jim Ross market is interesting. His name has been floated around as possibly being associated with the project. It should be worth noting that, as of the time of writing, he's still signed to WWE until April 2019. Therefore, I believe it's safe to surmise that Ross cannot be signed to anything until his current contract expires.

The oddsmakers have the following selections on the Ross special:

Commentator +300
General Manager +225
Head Office +175
Will Not Be A Part Of AEW +150

I find it surprising to see 'Commentator' at +300. If this project gets off the ground, Ross as the head commentator is what they should do based on his name alone. As well as being surprised to see Ross as AEW's commentator being the highest price in the market, having him as 'Head Office' shouldn't be out of the question considering he juggled jobs as head of talent and WWE's lead play-by-play commentator years ago.

The proposition for AEW to be announced by January 31st 2019 has the 'Yes' at -250 and the 'No' at +170 while the prices for AEW to announce a TV deal has the 'Yes' favoured at -200 and the 'No' at +150.

The most important thing to note about the specials where people can place wagers on the wrestlers' next contract being signed is that - as far as I am aware - their New Japan contracts expire on the final day of January. I know for sure that Kenny Omega's ends on this date.

Even more important is that - according to the Wrestling Observer Newsletter dated November 26th 2018 - all of the wrestlers that have been associated with this project are keen to retain their relationships with New Japan. Therefore, the 'New Japan' selection stands out to me in all of these markets.

For Adam Page, the firm is offering:
New Japan +500
WWE +400
All Elite Wrestling -300
The Field +400

For Cody:
New Japan +500
WWE +900
All Elite Wrestling -1,200
The Field +600

For The Young Bucks:
New Japan +600
WWE +1,200
All Elite Wrestling -700
Field +400

For Kenny Omega:
New Japan +600
WWE +300
All Elite Wrestling -500
The Field +800

If I were a BetOnline customer, I would back 'New Japan' in all of these specials. Especially the one for Omega as his January 4th IWGP Heavyweight Championship defence against Hiroshi Tanahashi might give away the fact that Omega has resigned or - in the very least - indicated an intention to renew, should he retain his strap.

These specials are found under 'Game Props' on the sportsbook menu that's found on the BetOnline Website.