Monday, 15 October 2018

Rock Still -140 Not To Wrestle At Smackdown 1,000

MyBookie still has Dwayne Johnson at -140 NOT to wrestle at Smackdown 1,000.

As noted in a couple of posts - the first published on September 15th and then a follow up on Saturday - the sportsbook had installed a proposition market where customers could place wagers on the actor showing up on the show that's celebrating its one-thousandth episode.

When I first came across the market, I was surprised to see the bookie had Johnson not to wrestle on the Smackdown 1,000 card at +160 considering he hasn't wrestled on regular TV in over fifteen years.

The 'No' has since fallen to the aforementioned -140 while the 'Yes' has been moved to +110 from -200.

I believe Johnson is still filming Hobbs and Shaw in London, so I find it hard to believe he'll make a live in-person appearance tomorrow night.

Even if he does show up, wrestling a match is highly unlikely.

And then some.

The market is scheduled to close at 8AM Eastern / 1PM BST tomorrow.

Closing Odds For The October 15th Raw

The Sky Bet website has now closed betting on two of the matches that are scheduled for tonight's edition of WWE Raw.

I had a look over the two markets before they were taken down at their scheduled cut-off time of 11PM BST.

The market for the World Cup qualifier between Seth Rollins and Drew McIntyre closed with McIntyre as an 8/13 favourite. He was at 8/11 in the early hours of this morning.

However, as you'll see below, Seth Rollins' price was snipped from even money into 10/11 by 6PM BST this evening. As a result, the bookies placed McIntyre at 4/5.

Date/Time
Seth Rollins
Drew McIntyre
15/10 3:45AM
EVS
8/11
15/10 6:00PM
10/11
4/5
15/10 10:45PM
6/5
8/13

The Dean Ambrose versus Dolph Ziggler market went the way of the former. He was at 4/7 at 3:45AM BST today and - as mentioned in a post published this morning - had fallen to 1/2 by 10AM BST. He was down to 1/3 before the market closed.

Date/Time
Dean Ambrose
Dolph Ziggler
15/10 3:45AM
4/7
5/4
15/10 10:00AM
1/2
6/4
15/10 10:45PM
1/3
9/4

As a result, Dolph Ziggler was pushed out from 5/4 into 6/4 and then was at 9/4 before the cut-off time.
Before the market closed, I thought I'd place a small speculative punt on Ziggler beating Dean Ambrose. 

There was a method behind my apparent madness.

Looking at the confirmed participants for the tournament, I believe that it needs more of a balance because, of the four people already in, Randy Orton is the only heel. Rey Mysterio will likely be added tomorrow, so that's another fan favourite. This would make it 4:1 on the babyface to heel ratio with three empty places. 

McIntyre winning a place would also do that, though. It would also set up a potential Ambrose versus McIntyre meeting in the tournament, hence the reason why I've placed a small wager on Ziggler.

It wouldn't be the first time I've lost on Dolph Ziggler in 2018, if this doesn't go my way.

Rollins/McIntyre And Ambrose/Ziggler Odds For Tonight's Raw

Sky Bet has published two betting markets for matches that have been announced for tonight's episode of WWE Raw.

Both matches are World Cup qualifiers for the tournament that is still currently scheduled to take place from Saudi Arabia in less than three weeks time.

The first market will see Seth Rollins once again go up against Drew McIntyre. The bookies have installed Rollins at even money while McIntyre is an 8/11 favourite.

I was alerted to these markets in the early hours of this morning. The aforementioned market is showing the same pricing as then. However, the one for Dean Ambrose's meeting with Dolph Ziggler has been adjusted.

The earliest price I have for the match had Dean Ambrose as a 4/7 favourite to Ziggler at 5/4. The fave has since been cut into 1/2 with his opponent now up to 6/4.

These markets are scheduled to close at 11PM BST tonight.

The firm is still accepting wagers on the World Cup qualifier that is scheduled for Smackdown - Rey Mysterio .vs. Shinsuke Nakamura.

The market remains at the same pricing as when I wrote about it in a post published on Wednesday - Mysterio is 1/7 while Nakamura is 4/1.

Saturday, 13 October 2018

The Rock And Smackdown 1,000 Betting Update

In a post published last month, I pointed out that MyBookie had a proposition market where customers could wager on The Rock wrestling at Smackdown 1,000. I was concerned that the market was priced up in error because the odds looked too good to be true. Now that we're a few days away from the episode, I thought I'd publish an update.

When I first wrote about the market, the line for Dwayne Johnson to wrestle on Tuesday's show was priced as a -200 favourite. It seemed off considering The Rock hasn't wrestled a proper match in over five years.

On top of that - Johnson hasn't wrestled on regular television since 2003, so the odds on him NOT to wrestle at Smackdown 1,000 seemed great at +160.

Too great.

What also added to my concern that the market was incorrectly priced was, further down the page, the bookie had priced up a market for Johnson to compete in a match at WrestleMania 35 with the 'Yes' an outsider at +220 and the 'No' favoured at -260.

In September - I suggested that, if you were to apply the odds to the different propositions, it would kind of make more sense if you pushed yourself into avoiding Dwayne Johnson's upcoming schedule to try and make a case for him wrestling a match in April.

As of today, the Smackdown 1,000 market seems to be showing prices that wouldn't shock me if I were to have came across it for the very first time.

The Rock To Wrestle At Smackdown 1,000 Odds

The 'Yes' has now been moved to +110 while the 'No' has been cut into favouritism. It's now at -140.

-140 is still too high.

I don't even get the sense that Dwayne Johnson will be there live on Tuesday night. Let alone wrestle. The last I heard he was in London filming the Fast and Furious spin-off movie titled Hobbs and Shaw.

Even if he is in the building, there's zero chance of him wrestling.

For those keen to know the latest odds for a match featuring The Rock to be on the WrestleMania 35 card - there is no change. The 'Yes' remains at +220 to the 'No' at -260.

As mentioned above, I find it pressing to believe he'll wrestle at Mania due to all his commitments and the production issues that would be raised if he were to injure himself.

Friday, 12 October 2018

Another Look At A New Mania 35 Market

Kambi republished its WWE WrestleMania 35 specials where customers can place wagers on who certain wrestlers will oppose at next April's PPV.

Of the five markets available, the one for Daniel Bryan's Mania opponent has been adjusted since I wrote about them last Saturday

Daniel Bryan's WrestleMania 35 Opponent

As you can see, the selections that have been cut since the weekend are Shinsuke Nakamura from 3/1 into 2/1, Samoa Joe from 11/2 into 4/1, and Shawn Michaels from 15/1 into 10/1.

All kind of make sense for different reasons.

I mentioned on Saturday that I thought there was a good chance of Bryan versus Shinsuke Nakamura because the two wrestlers are friends dating back to their time rooming with Lyoto Machida back in the early 2000s. Both have also shared a wish to wrestle one another on the big stage.

With Joe's price moving down, I would hazard a guess that this might be from a punter, or punters, who might believe that Bryan will become WWE Champion in the coming weeks. Joe - as we've seen - has made for a great challenger in title programs both in and out of the ring.

Shawn Michaels' price being cut is another one that makes sense at a push. Especially considering that Bryan was a student of the Heartbreak Kid's wrestling school back in the day. There was also a tease of a match between the two when Michaels was firmly sticking to his vow of staying retired.

Braun Strowman's odds have increased from 15s into 20/1. A lot has to happen for this match to be fixed up for Mania. One way, which would require a lot of things falling into place storyline-wise is for either one of the them to secure a championship on their respective brand and then for the other to choose to challenge for the belt after winning the Royal Rumble.

The Miz remains a favourite. I'm surprised that his odds have increased from 13/20 into 5/4 because - after watching Bryan and AJ Styles being interviewed by The Miz on this week's edition of Smackdown - the company sure did hint that there was a chance of Bryan .vs. Miz being a title match down the road.

The aforementioned Styles remains a 7/10 favourite to wrestle John Cena, The Rock is even money in wagering on Roman Reigns' opponent, Charlotte Flair is still strongly-favoured to meet Ronda Rousey at 1/5 and Shawn Michaels tops The Undertaker opponent market at 1/2.

You can read Saturday's Post for a more detailed look through the four other markets and - where appropriate - the early price adjustments.


MyBookie Publishes Crown Jewel Prop Market

In what I personally think is close to the region of taking celebrity dead pool bets, the oddsmakers from MyBookie have published a market where clients can wager on WWE pulling out from holding the Crown Jewel show in Saudi Arabia.

This market was created due to the situation involving Washington Post journalist, Jamal Khashoggi who has gone missing - feared murdered - after visiting the Saudi Arabian consulate in Turkey on October 2nd.

There are allegations that the decision to capture the journalist was ordered by the Saudi government. This has been denied.

The news has caused many businesses dealing with Saudi Arabia to reconsider their relationships with the country. For example, Richard Branson suspended discussions with the Saudis over a billion dollar investment that was to be given to Virgin Galactic.

Branson announced, in a statement released yesterday, that 'what has happened in Turkey around the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, if proved true, would clearly change the ability of any of us in the West to do business with the Saudi government.'

WWE has offered a statement of its own - 'we are currently monitoring the situation'.

As far as the prop bet goes, the bookmakers seem confident that the show will go ahead as planned. They've installed 'No' WWE will not pull out as a -500 favourite while the 'Yes' has been given +350.

It isn't as immoral as creating markets where people can place wagers on celebrity deaths, but it's very close. This is, in the very least, a market that has been created on the back of a kidnapping and - at worst - a murder.

Thursday, 11 October 2018

New WWE Evolution Markets From Kambi

New WWE Evolution betting markets were published today for the matches that were confirmed on this week's TV shows.

WWE Smackdown Women's Champion, Becky Lynch, has been installed at odds of 11/20 to successfully retain her title against Charlotte Flair in the last women standing match. A successful wager on the challenger will pay out at odds of 5/4.

Nikki Bella is a 5/2 outsider for her WWE Raw Women's Championship challenge against titleholder, Ronda Rousey (1/4).

The bookies have withdrawn the markets for Alexa Bliss .vs. Trish Stratus and Mickie James .vs. Lita matches now that WWE has merged the bouts into a tag match that'll see Alexa Bliss and Mickie James take on Stratus and Lita.

As of the time of writing, the heels are 6/4 outsiders to Trish Stratus and Lita, who have been priced at 4/9.

The NXT Women's Championship market was republished today. Kairi Sane's price is now down to 4/9. When I last checked in, she was at 1/2.

Date/Time
Kairi Sane
Shayna Baszler
25/9 4:00PM
3/4
19/20
3/10 10:00PM
1/2
7/5
11/10 1:00PM
4/9
31/20

As a result of the champion's odds moving in, the former titleholder - Shayna Baszler - has drifted to 31/20 from 7/5.

Mixed Match Challenge S2 E5 Betting Markets Installed

Betting markets for next week's episode of WWE Mixed Match Challenge have been published by Kambi.

The bookies have installed Asuka and The Miz as 1/5 favourites for their meeting with Lana and Rusev (3/1).

The favourites are 1-0 in matches so far while Lana and Rusev are 0-1.

In the 'Gender of Decision' market - where customers can place wagers on whether the males or females are involved in the match finish - the 'Female' selection is favoured over its opposition. It's 21/50 to the 'Male' at 33/20.

This is only match covered due to Kevin Owens having been pulled from the competition. His replacement is yet to be announced. Natalya and her new tag team partner will compete against Bobby Lashley and Mickie James on the show.

Prices correct as of 12PM BST today. When available, the markets can be found on the websites that publish Kambi's WWE odds. A couple of examples can be found below.


Kambi Add More Markets To Its Crown Jewel Coverage

The Kambi oddsmakers have added markets for the new additions to the WWE Crown Jewel card.

D-Generation X have been installed as 1/2 favourites to best the team of Kane and The Undertaker. A winning wager on the Brothers of Destruction will pay out at 7/5.

In another match market - WWE Champion, AJ Styles, is a 1/3 fave to successfully retain his title against Daniel Bryan (2/1).

There's also an outright market where clients can place wagers on the winner of the World Cup tournament that will take place on the night.

The confirmed runners, so far, are: John Cena (2/1), Kurt Angle (5/1), Randy Orton (6/1) and Jeff Hardy (10/1). There are many other names listed including Rey Mysterio and Shinsuke Nakamura, who will compete in a qualifier on next week's episode of Smackdown. As of the time of writing, Mysterio is 8/1 and Nakamura is 20/1 to become the World Cup winner.

Kambi's market for the WWE Universal Championship match was also republished this afternoon.


Date/Time
Reigns
Strowman
Lesnar
19/9 4:15PM
11/20
11/4
11/4
24/9 4:00PM
1/2
14/5
3/1
3/10 10:00PM
7/20
11/4
5/1
11/10 12:00PM
11/50
15/4
6/1


As you can see, the champ - Roman Reigns - is now down to 11/50 to win the triple threat against Braun Strowman (15/4) and Brock Lesnar (6/1).


Wednesday, 10 October 2018

Mysterio .vs. Nakamura Smackdown 1,000 Odds Plus More

Sky Bet has published a match market for next week's Smackdown 1000.

Customers have the opportunity to wager on the World Cup qualifier between the returning Rey Mysterio and Shinsuke Nakamura.

Mysterio has been priced up as the favourite. He's currently 1/7 to Nakamura's 4/1.

The firm has also republished its World Cup outright winner market.

Mysterio is 8/1 to win the tournament at WWE Crown Jewel. If Nakamura were to qualify on Tuesday and then go on to win the cup in Saudi Arabia on November 2nd, the bookmaker will pay out at odds of 25/1.

Here are the current prices for the confirmed participants for the tournament. I'll place yesterday's prices in parenthesis.

John Cena 2/1 (3/1)
Randy Orton 4/1 (10/1)
Jeff Hardy 8/1 (14/1)
Kurt Angle 8/1 (8/1)

Randy Orton and Jeff Hardy both qualified on last night's Smackdown in winning efforts against The Big Show and Samoa Joe respectively.

Tuesday, 9 October 2018

Flair And Styles Down To 1/12 In MMC Wagering

Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles have been slashed into 1/12 to win tonight's Mixed Match Challenge bout against Carmella and R-Truth.

When I wrote about the match market yesterday, I noted that the favourites had dropped from 1/4 into 2/13 in the first few days punters have been able to wager on the bout.

As a result, the team of Carmella and R-Truth have drifted to 5/1. Their odds have doubled since Friday.

Date/Time
Flair and Styles
Carmella and R-Truth
5/10 6:00PM
1/4
5/2
8/10 4:00PM
2/13
7/2
9/10 1:30PM
1/12
5/1

The customers have backed the males being the legal participants in the ring when the match result is determined.

Kambi's 'Method of Decision' special has seen 'Male' fall from 8/13 into 4/9 with the match ending with Carmella or Charlotte Flair scoring the decision has risen to 6/4 from 23/20.

Date/Time
Male
Female
5/10 6:00PM
8/13
23/20
8/10 4:00PM
"
"
9/10 1:30PM
4/9
6/4

In a post published yesterday, I wrote about the closing prices for the other match on tonight's show - Ember Moon and Braun Strowman .vs. Bayley and Finn Balor. 

Moon and Strowman were 11/20 to their opponents' 5/4 before the market was taken down at 5PM BST yesterday evening. 

The gamblers had backed the 'Female' selection in the 'Method of Decision' market as it had dipped from 7/10 into 13/20 while the 'Male' selection went from EVS to 11/10.


New Evolution Match And Betting Update

On last night's episode of WWE Raw, it was announced that Alexa Bliss and Mickie James will take on Trish Stratus and Lita in one of the matches on the WWE Evolution card. This evidently means that two previously announced matches - Bliss .vs. Stratus and James .vs. Lita - have been scrapped.

Following the news, Sky Bet has closed its markets for the two scratches and refunded all wagers. The firm has also priced up a market for the new bout.

When I checked in this morning, Trish Stratus and Lita were 4/5. They have since been backed into 4/6 with their opponents drifting to 11/10 from 10/11.

In a post published earlier today, I noted that the sportsbook had also published a market for the WWE Raw Women's Championship contest between Ronda Rousey and her challenger, Nikki Bella.

Rousey has been backed from this morning's 4/9 into 4/11.


Date/Time
Ronda Rousey
Nikki Bella
9/10 9:00AM
4/9
13/8
9/10 12:15PM
4/11
2/1

Current Odds For Tonight's Smackdown Matches

Here are the current WWE Smackdown betting odds from Sky Bet.

Jeff Hardy .vs. Samoa Joe
The majority appears to have continued to back Samoa Joe to get a result against Jeff Hardy in the World Cup qualifier. 
As you can see in the table below, Joe is now down to 2/7. The earlier price I have - from yesterday morning - is 1/2.

Date/Time
Jeff Hardy
Samoa Joe
8/10 10:10AM
6/4
1/2
8/10 5:00PM
9/4
1/3
9/10 9:00AM
5/2
2/7
The returning Jeff Hardy has risen to 5/2 from 6/4 in this period.

Big Show .vs. Randy Orton
Another returner - The Big Show - has continued to drift out in the other qualifier for the Crown Jewel tournament. He's now up to 7/4, which is an increase from the 6/4 I found him yesterday afternoon. 

Date/Time
Big Show
Randy Orton
8/10 10:10AM
2/1
4/11
8/10 10:16AM
5/4
4/7
8/10 5:00PM
6/4
1/2
9/10 9:00AM
7/4
2/5

Randy Orton is the betting favourite having fallen from 4/7 into 2/5 following the early interest in a Big Show victory.

Becky Lynch .vs. Charlotte Flair
The WWE Smackdown Women's Championship market has once again moved in favour of a decision in favour of Charlotte Flair.

Date/Time
Becky Lynch
Charlotte Flair
6/10 10:25PM
1/3
9/4
7/10 4:45PM
2/5
7/4
7/10 6:10PM
4/9
13/8
8/10 10:10AM
4/7
5/4
9/10 9:00AM
4/5
10/11

The challenger has moved to 10/11. A win for Becky Lynch is now being offered at 4/5 - up from yesterday's 4/7 and above the 1/3 I found the champ on Saturday evening.

All three markets are scheduled to close at 11PM BST.

More WWE PPV Markets Published By Sky Bet

The Sky Bet Sportsbook has installed more betting markets for the two upcoming WWE PPV events - Evolution and Crown Jewel.

On last night's episode of Raw, the Bella Twins attacked Ronda Rousey following their trios match win over The Riott Squad. This has resulted in the much rumoured WWE Raw Women's Championship match between Rousey and Nikki Bella being confirmed for the Evolution show.

As of 9AM, Rousey is a 4/9 favourite. A win for her challenger will pay out at 13/8.

Another match that was reported weeks ago was D-Generation X versus The Brothers of Destruction for the Crown Jewel PPV. This was also confirmed on last night's episode.

The bookies had both teams at 5/6 when I first began to write this post. Since then, DX have dropped to 4/6 while their opponents have moved up to 11/10.

The firm is also accepting wagers on the World Cup tournament where eight wrestlers will compete to be the 'Best in the World'.

I am still watching Raw as I write this and the market lists John Cena (3/1) and Kurt Angle (8/1) as confirmed participants. I guess Angle won the battle royal to win his place along with Cena.  The market lists other names such as those who are competing in qualifiers on tonight's episode of Smackdown.

Monday, 8 October 2018

Mixed Match Challenge Week 4 Betting Update

Kambi's betting markets for the WWE Mixed Match Challenge match that will be contested between the team of Ember Moon and Braun Strowman and Bayley and Finn Balor was taken down at 5PM BST.

The match winner market moved in favour of Moon and Strowman as they declined from 4/5 into 11/20 between the day of the market first being published and this afternoon.


Date/Time
Moon and Strowman
Bayley and Balor
5/10 6:00PM
4/5
9/10
8/10 4:00PM
11/20
5/4


A Bayley and Finn Balor victory was priced 5/4 before the market was taken down. It was initially 9/10.

The 'Gender of Decision' market saw 'Female' backed from 7/10 into 13/20 in the period where customers could place their bets on the legal competitors in the ring when the fall is won.


Date/Time
Male
Female
5/10 6:00PM
EVS
7/10
8/10 4:00PM
11/10
13/20


The 'Match Winner' and 'Gender of Decision' markets for Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles .vs. Carmella and R-Truth are still available as of the time of writing.


Date/Time
Flair and Styles
Carmella and R-Truth
5/10 6:00PM
1/4
5/2
8/10 4:00PM
2/13
7/2


The gamblers have backed the favourites from 1/4 into 2/13 over the three days the market has been up. I backed Carmella and R-Truth when I first found the market. I should have waited as I could have got them at 7/2 - an increase from 5/2.

I backed the outsiders because they are currently 0-1. It could be because I've backed myself into the belief that they could go on and win the entire tournament.

As for the 'Gender of Decision' market - it remains unchanged from when it was first installed on Friday. A decision with Styles and R-Truth as the legal participants is 8/13 while the females are 23/20.

Both matches will take place on tomorrow night's episode.


Joe And Orton Lowered In Smackdown Wagering

Following on from this morning's post, where I wrote about Sky Bet's new WWE Smackdown match markets, I've revisited the website to see whether there have been any adjustments made.

Samoa Joe to get a win over Jeff Hardy has now been cut from 1/2 into 1/3. Jeff Hardy going over - which was being offered at 6/4 earlier - is now up to 9/4.

In the Big Show versus Randy Orton market, the customers have evidently sided with Randy Orton since this morning - where I mentioned Big Show's odds had dropped.


Date/Time
Big Show
Randy Orton
8/10 10:10AM
2/1
4/11
8/10 10:16AM
5/4
4/7
8/10 5:00PM
6/4
1/2


As you can see in the table, The Apex Predator - who was 4/7 when I last posted an update - has now dipped to 1/2 with Big Show moving up a notch from 5/4 into 6/4.

Becky Lynch is still a 4/7 favourite to win her WWE Smackdown Women's Championship defence against Charlotte Flair (5/4). As I've mentioned in all of the recent markets about this match, Flair is the selection that has declined since betting opened on Saturday. You can see for yourself in the table below.


Date/Time
Becky Lynch
Charlotte Flair
6/10 10:25PM
1/3
9/4
7/10 4:45PM
2/5
7/4
7/10 6:10PM
4/9
13/8
8/10 10:10AM
4/7
5/4

2 More Smackdown Match Markets From Sky Bet

Sky Bet has published another two markets for this week's episode of WWE Smackdown.

The new additions are for the two World Cup qualifying matches that WWE announced yesterday - Jeff Hardy .vs. Samoa Joe and Big Show .vs. Randy Orton.

Hardy has been priced as a 6/4 outsider.  A winning bet on Joe will pay out at odds of 1/2.

The Big Show .vs. Randy Orton market has been adjusted since I first came across it. Show was 2/1, but is now down to 5/4. Orton has moved from 4/11 to 4/7.

It should be worth noting that I backed Show when he was at 2s. I feel that he has been brought back to TVs in order work the Crown Jewel show where the World Cup tournament will be contested. Whether he's back to work IN the tournament is another thing, but - at 2/1 - I thought it was worth a punt.

These markets can be found alongside the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship match winner odds that were published over the weekend. As of 10:10AM BST, Charlotte Flair has fallen to 5/4 to get a decision over the champ, Becky Lynch.


Date/Time
Becky Lynch
Charlotte Flair
6/10 10:25PM
1/3
9/4
7/10 4:45PM
2/5
7/4
7/10 6:10PM
4/9
13/8
8/10 10:10AM
4/7
5/4