Tuesday, 25 September 2018

Super Show-Down Odds Ahead Of 25/9 Smackdown

I have just taken a look through the 5Dimes Sportsbook's WWE Super Show-Down betting markets. This was the second time I looked through them today, but this is the first time I've written about them since publishing a post before last night's episode of Raw.

There was only one market showing differing pricing to last night. This was the one for Bobby Lashley and John Cena .vs. Elias and Kevin Owens.

At 8:45AM BST this morning, Elias and Owens were back at +350 after dipping from +450.

Lashley and Cena
Elias and Kevin Owens
21/9 1:00PM
24/9 9:00AM
25/9 8:45AM
25/9 10:00PM

As a result, the babyfaces have moved up from -750 to -530.

The rest of 5Dimes markets' prices for next week's PPV - as of 10PM BST - can be found below.

Triple H +125
The Undertaker -165

Daniel Bryan -175
The Miz +135

The Shield -350
Strowman, Ziggler and McIntyre +250

Bellas and Rousey -900
Riott Squad +500

AJ Styles -180
Samoa Joe +140

Cedric Alexander +130
Buddy Murphy -170

New Day -600
Cesaro and Sheamus +400

Asuka and Naomi +115
The IIconics -155

Becky Lynch -195
Charlotte Flair +155

Closing Odds For Tonight's MMC Matches

Kambi has closed betting on tonight's episode of WWE Mixed Match Challenge.

The market, where customers could place wagers on the tag match featuring The Miz and Asuka going up against R-Truth and Carmella - was taken down at 5PM BST today.

As you can see below, I had kept track of the betting but there wasn't much to report.

Asuka and The Miz
Carmella and R-Truth
19/9 4:00PM
20/9 4:00PM
21/9 4:00PM
22/9 5:00PM
24/9 4:00PM

The odds for Carmella and R-Truth were cut from 13/4 into 5/2 within the first day.

I was one of the punters who backed the outsiders.

In my opinion, this match should have taken place in week one. Last season's winners - Asuka and The Miz - either winning or losing on their return to the series would have set the tone for the rest of the tournament.

Or maybe it's just me in the NFL bubble right now and thinking WWE should have adopted what the league does by having the Super Bowl champions open each new season.

I liked the idea of an upset at 13/4.

The market where customers could place wagers on the gender of the person who scores the decision in this match was unavailable when I checked in at 4PM today. The most recent prices I have are from yesterday night, which was how they opened, with 'Male' a 7/10 fave over 'Female' at EVENS.

Kambi cancelled the other match market it had for tonight after Sasha Banks was pulled from the tournament and replaced by Mickie James. She'll team with Bobby Lashley to oppose Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox.

These markets were published by Kambi. They can be found on the websites that offer Kambi's WWE betting odds. A couple of examples can be found below:

Another Raw Match Market Voided

One of the matches that had been advertised for tonight's episode of WWE Raw is seemingly not taking place after all.

Brie Bella .vs. Ruby Riott has now been changed to a trios match which will see The Bella Twins and Natalya go up against The Riott Squad.

This news means that the Sky Bet market for Brie Bella .vs. Ruby Riott will be settled as void as the singles match has been scratched.

The market was closed at 11PM BST with Riott a 4/5 favourite. Brie Bella was 10/11.

Monday, 24 September 2018

Super Show-Down Odds Update Ahead Of September 24th Raw

It has been days since I last wrote about the 5Dimes Sportsbook's WWE Super Show-Down markets, so this post will serve as an update. I'll go through each market and point out where the bettors have been punting since I first began to keep track of the wagering.

Becky Lynch .vs. Charlotte Flair
The WWE Smackdown Women's Championship market is one of a few that has been stationary since I first started keeping tabs. Lynch is a -195 fave to successfully retain her title. A winning bet on Charlotte Flair will pay out at +155.

Asuka and Naomi .vs. The IIconics
This one has changed.

Asuka and Naomi
The IIconics
21/9 1:00PM
22/9 9:00AM
23/9 9:00AM
24/9 11:00PM

As I expected, the Australian team of The IIconics were backed from -120 into -165 between Friday and yesterday morning. However, today's move has gone in favour of their opponents as Asuka and Naomi have been snipped from +125 into +115.

Cedric Alexander .vs. Buddy Murphy
When I checked the WWE Cruiserweight Championship market this morning, it was still showing the same pricing as Friday. It has since moved.

Cedric Alexander
Buddy Murphy
21/9 1:00PM
24/9 11:00PM

Alexander has dipped from +130 to +130 to successfully retain the title. As a result, Buddy Murphy's role as favourite has drifted slightly moving up from -175 to -170.

That's two markets where the Australians have surprisingly been faded today, for those paying close attention.

The New Day .vs. The Bar
This another market still showing the same pricing as Friday afternoon. The WWE Smackdown Tag Team Champions - The New Day - remain favourites to get a decision over The Bar. They're -600. A win for the challengers will pay out at +400.

AJ Styles .vs. Samoa Joe
AJ Styles' odds have been on the descent. He was a -145 favourite on Friday, but was moved into -155 by yesterday morning. He has since moved into -180 sometime between 9AM and 11PM BST today.

AJ Styles
Samoa Joe
21/9 1:00PM
23/9 9:00AM
24/9 11:00PM

As you can see, Samoa Joe has risen to +140 from +105 since Friday.

Ronda Rousey and the Bella Twins .vs. The Riott Squad
This is another one of the markets that are unchanged. The babyface trio are -900 favourites. The Riott Squad are +500.

The Shield .vs. Strowman, McIntyre and Ziggler
Another non-mover. The Shield are -350 to their opponents' +250.

Daniel Bryan .vs. The Miz
This market moved in favour of Daniel Bryan (-155 to -195) between Friday afternoon and this morning. Then - during the day - there appears to have been interest in The Miz as he dropped from +155 into +135.

Daniel Bryan
The Miz
21/9 1:00PM
24/9 9:00AM
24/9 11:00PM

Bobby Lashley and John Cena .vs. Elias and Kevin Owens
The team of Bobby Lashley and John Cena spent a few days as -530 favourites, but fell to -750 by this morning. They remain at this price as of 11PM BST.

Lashley and Cena
Elias and Kevin Owens
21/9 1:00PM
24/9 9:00AM
24/9 11:00PM

As a result, Elias and Kevin Owens' role as underdogs has increased from +350 to +450.

Triple H .vs. The Undertaker
This has been an active market. The first sign of action moved in favour of Triple H as his number was snipped from +120 into +110 between Friday and yesterday morning. Then, by this morning, it was The Undertaker who seems to have been backed as he dropped from -150 into -165.

The Undertaker
21/9 1:00PM
23/9 9:00AM
24/9 9:00AM
24/9 11:00PM

I'll have another look through these prices tomorrow.

Prices correct as of 11PM BST on Monday night. The latest can be found under 'Other Sports' on the 5Dimes Website.

Sunday, 23 September 2018

2 Raw Match Markets Published

Sky Bet has published two markets for matches that have been announced for tomorrow night's episode of WWE Raw.

Ruby Riott is 4/5 to win her match with Brie Bella (10/11).

Riott was 11/10 before I came across the market, so the punters have obviously sided with her.

The bout is a set up for the trios match - which will see the Bellas team up with Ronda Rousey to take on the Riott Squad - at WWE Super Show-Down in less than a fortnight.

Market number two is for the WWE Raw Tag Team Championship match.

Current titleholders, Dolph Ziggler and Drew McIntyre, have been installed as favourites to successfully retain the straps against The Revival.

The champs are - as of the time of writing - 1/5 and the challengers are 10/3.

Saturday, 22 September 2018

That Lesnar Market

It has been over a month since Brock Lesnar dropped the WWE Universal Championship to Roman Reigns as SummerSlam.

This means it has been well over a month since I planned to write one last post about the 'Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar' market where customers could have placed wagers on who they believed would succeed Lesnar as Raw's premier champion.

I had kept meaning to write a post about the market because - with Lesnar's reign lasting for well over a year - I had obviously dedicated time following the moves and writing about them. The amount of new markets that have been published following SummerSlam 2018 - including the Hell in a Cell 2018 coverage - forced me to hold off on this, the final post for this market.

Odds for the next Universal Champ were first installed on April 19th 2017 and closed August 19th of this year, when Lesnar dropped the strap to Roman Reigns in the main event of WWE's summer PPV.

As many people were aware, Reigns to eventually beat Lesnar for the strap was the plan BEFORE Lesnar beat Bill Goldberg to become champion at WrestleMania 33. Many, yours truly included, thought the day Reigns overcame The Beast would be at WrestleMania 34. 

It didn't.

We then went on to thinking Reigns would get the win at the Greatest Royal Rumble on April 27th. 

This also didn't occur as Lesnar was awarded the W in the pair's cage match in Saudi Arabia.

When the time came for Reigns to finally snare the title, the market had closed with the eventual winner a 1/6 favourite (he fell from 11/50 a day before the win). To say that Reigns had opened as a 2/5 favourite in April of 2017 would gloss over how his price fluctuated in the sixteen-month period. The amount of adjustments made to every selection in the Champion after Lesnar markets can be viewed by clicking on the image below. 

Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar Betting

The picture doesn't come out well due to how long it is, so I have created another table showing how only Reigns' odds were changed from April 2017 to August 2018. 

Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar Betting - Roman Reigns' Odds

I don't know for sure if we'll ever get to see a top-tier title reign like this for quite some time. AJ Styles is closing in on eleven months with the WWE Championship. I've had a quick look at the table I have been recording for his market and I've counted twenty-six updates.

Lesnar's had forty-six - surprising considering the end result was - with the benefit of hindsight - obvious months before the market even existed.

Friday, 21 September 2018

Yet Another MMC2 Injury

WWE has announced that Sasha Banks has been withdrawn from this season of the Mixed Match Challenge citing an injury.

Banks was set to team up with Bobby Lashley. The pair were due to wrestle against Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal on next week's episode.

Mickie James has been announced as Banks' replacement.

I expect Kambi to void the match market for next week as soon as the firm becomes aware of the news.

This is the second injury to plague the first round of matches.

On Tuesday, Alexa Bliss was replaced by Ember Moon. However, as of the time of writing, WWE is hopeful that Bliss will return for her and Braun Strowman's remaining tournament matches.

5Dimes Publishes Super Show-Down Markets

The 5Dimes Sportsbook has began to take bets on the WWE Super Show-Down event that's scheduled to take place from Melbourne, Australia on Saturday October 6th.

Asuka and Naomi .vs. The IIconics has both teams at -120 as of the time of writing. Seeing as Billie Kay and Peyton Royce are from Australia, I would not be surprised if they're established as favourites within the next fortnight.

On the topic of natives wrestling on the card - Buddy Murphy, who is from Melbourne, is a favourite to beat Cedric Alexander in the Cruiserweight Championship match on the card. The fave is -175 while the titleholder is out at +135.

WWE Smackdown Tag Team Champions, The New Day, are -600 for their defence against The Bar (Cesaro and Sheamus). A win for the challengers will pay out at at +400.

Elias and Kevin Owens have been priced as +350 underdogs for their tag match against John Cena and Bobby Lashley (-530).

The Bella Twins and Ronda Rousey are short-priced faves for their trios match against The Riott Squad. They're -900 while the team comprised of Ruby Riott, Liv Morgan and Sarah Logan are +500.

The Shield are -350 for their trios bout against Braun Strowman, Dolph Ziggler and Drew McIntyre (+250).

Charlotte Flair is a +155 outsider for her WWE Smackdown Women's Championship rematch against Becky Lynch. The champ is -195.

Daniel Bryan is a -155 favourite to beat The Miz (+115) in the match where the winner will earn a title shot for the WWE Championship.

On the topic of the WWE Title - AJ Styles is a favourite to retain his strap with a decision over Samoa Joe. The champ is -145 and the challenger is +105.

Finally, Triple H has been installed as a +120 underdog for his meeting with The Undertaker (-160) in what has so far been the most-hyped match of the event and will be used as a setup for a D-Generation X versus Brothers of Destruction match at WWE Crown Jewel a month later.

Prices correct as of 1PM BST today. The latest can be found under 'Other Sports' on THE 5DIMES WEBSITE.

Thursday, 20 September 2018

Kambi Settles HIAC 2018 Observer Markets

The latest issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter - featuring Dave Meltzer's review of WWE Hell in a Cell 2018 - was published today. As a result, the Kambi oddsmakers have now settled the star ratings markets that were available to customers over the weekend.

Ahead of the PPV, there were 'Highest Rated Match', 'Exact Star Rating Of Highest Rated Match' and Over/Under betting markets where clients could bet on Meltzer's ratings for the matches.

Dolph Ziggler and Drew McIntyre's successful defence of the Raw Tag Team Championship was the match of the night. It received four-and-a-half stars from the newsletter editor.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For HIAC 2018

As you can see in the table above, the winning selection was a joint second-favourite over the weekend. The customers had evidently backed the WWE Championship match earning the most stars in Dave's review. 

Even though there's no clear sign enough people bet on the Raw Tag Team Championship match getting the most stars in the 'Highest Rated Match' market, the customers evidently took a gamble on Meltzer going as high as 4.5 as this option was cut from 7/4 into 6/4 by Sunday afternoon.

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For HIAC 2018

Finally, all of the Over/Under markets have also been settled now that the issue has gone live. 

The market that I circled as having a line far lower than my expectations was the one for the mixed tag team match. I felt the 1.75 line was not factoring in that Daniel Bryan and The Miz were in the match alongside their respective spouses. My instinct turned out to be spot on as the match received three-and-a-quarter.

You can view all of the results in the table below. I'll also go through each market individually to see how - in some cases - the odds changed. 

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting For HIAC 2018

WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship
The Kick Off match went one-quarter of a star over the line of three. The 'Over' was 17/20 to start off with, but was backed into 3/4 within the first few hours. It remained at this price right up to its closure.

Randy Orton .vs. Jeff Hardy
Randy Orton's Hell in a Cell victory over Jeff Hardy was given 3.75 stars from Meltzer, This was another that went over its line of three stars. The punters were offered EVS on the 'Over' throughout the weekend.

WWE Smackdown Women's Championship
The clients appeared to back Charlotte Flair .vs. Becky Lynch going under the line of 3.5 as it fell from 17/20 into 7/10 between Friday and Sunday night. The eventual winner - 'Over' - rose from 11/10 into 5/4.

WWE Raw Tag Team Championship
The marker was priced up with 'Over 4 Stars' at EVS, 'Exactly 4 Stars' at 2/1 and 'Under 4' also at EVS. As we know, this went over the line and was the match that received the most stars in the review.

WWE Championship
The line for AJ Styles' WWE Championship contest with Samoa Joe was set at 4.25 Stars. It fell under. The price for this option was 17/20 throughout the weekend. 

Mixed Tag Team Match
As noted, the bookies set the line for the mixed tag team match at 1.75 stars. It started off at EVS, was backed into 4/5 by Friday night and reopened at 13/20 on Saturday morning.

WWE Raw Women's Championship
Ronda Rousey's successful defence of the Raw Women's Title over Alexa Bliss went over the line of 2.25 Stars. The punters had backed this selection from 11/10 into 9/10 between Friday and Sunday morning.

WWE Universal Championship
The first sign of action on the WWE Universal Championship market saw the customers bet under the line of four stars as it dropped from EVS to 19/20 within the first two days. These customers were spot on as the match did indeed fall under the line. There was late interest in the match receiving 'Exactly 4 Stars' on Sunday night as the odds went from 21/10 to 9/5. As a result, 'Under' moved back up to EVS.

Hopefully, we'll be able to do the same for Super Show-Down in two weeks..

Wednesday, 19 September 2018

Sky Bet Publishes WWE Crown Jewel Market

Sky Bet is another firm that has published a market for the WWE Universal Championship match that is scheduled for the WWE's Crown Jewel event that will take place from Saudi Arabia in early November.

Roman Reigns is - as of the time of writing - a 1/2 favourite to successfully retain his championship against Braun Strowman (11/4) and former champ, Brock Lesnar (5/1).

Reigns Installed As Favourite To Win At WWE Crown Jewel

Roman Reigns has been installed as a favourite to successfully retain the WWE Universal Championship in the triple threat match that has been announced for WWE's return to Saudi Arabia in November.

The champ - who will defend his title against Braun Strowman and Brock Lesnar at the event named WWE Crown Jewel - has been given odds of 11/20 by the Kambi oddsmakers.

Both Strowman and Lesnar can be found at 11/4 each.

This isn't the only market the bookies have priced up for the match. Customers can also place wagers on the 'Participant to concede defeat' and 'Current champion to retain the title'.

Braun Strowman is 13/20 to do the honours. He's followed by Lesnar at 23/20 and Reigns at 11/4.

The 'retain' market has the champion retaining at 11/20 while the 'No' is 13/10. The bet will be graded on whoever is champion at the start and then at the end of the broadcast on November 2nd.

This will be one of many matches that will take place at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh. WWE announced that there will be a 'World Cup' tournament at the event, but participants have yet to be revealed.

The show will also likely feature a returning Shawn Michaels teaming up with Triple H to take on Kane and The Undertaker.

MMCII: Episode Two Odds Published

Kambi's oddsmakers have released betting markets for next week's episode of WWE Mixed Match Challenge.

Season one winners - Asuka and The Miz - will take on Carmella and R-Truth in one of the two bouts that are scheduled for next Tuesday night. They have been installed as 1/6 favourites while Carmella and R-Truth are available at odds of 13/4.

The other match on the board for next week while see Sasha Banks and Bobby Lashley go up against Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal. The latter are 9/2 outsiders while Banks and Lashley are 1/10.

In a couple of Mixed Match Challenge posts yesterday, I noted that I have placed a speculative punt on Carmella and R-Truth to be the outright winners. Maybe it's a bias because of this wager, but I am going to take them to win next week's match. The only reason is it would be somewhat of a story if the undefeated team from the first season lose in their first match of season two.

Last night's results saw Braun Strowman and Ember Moon (subbing for Alexa Bliss) defeat Natalya and Kevin Owens in one match. This was followed by a Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles win over Jimmy Uso and Naomi.

In betting, the Raw tag match was voided due to the change in one of the advertised participants. Smackdown's market saw the winners go over as 1/10 favourites.

When available, the markets can be found under 'Facebook Watch' on the Pro Wrestling pages of the sportsbooks with Kambi betting. A couple of examples can be found below.

Champ After Reigns Update For September 19th

Kambi republished its betting market where customers can place wagers on who they believe will succeed Roman Reigns as WWE Universal Champion this afternoon. With the titleholder scheduled to defend the strap in a three-way at WWE Crown Jewel in November, there have been a number adjustments made.

For starters, Braun Strowman - who challenged Reigns for the strap this past Sunday night at Hell in a Cell 2018 - has had his price moved up slightly. He remains a favourite, but has increased to 1/2 from 2/5.

Brock Lesnar - who will be in the ring along with Strowman and Reigns in Saudi Arabia - has had his price slashed from 20s into 2/1. As you can see in the table below, the former Universal Champion was 15/1 when the market was first installed in late-August, and was pushed to 20/1. Just like every other follower of pro wrestling, the bookie evidently didn't expect Lesnar to return so soon.

Lesnar isn't the only selection to have his price cut.

WWE Universal Champion After Roman Reigns Betting Odds For September 19th

Bobby Lashley (17/1 to 8/1), Dean Ambrose (20/1 to 8/1) and Seth Rollins (10/1 to 8/1) have all been lowered.

Baron Corbin, who challenged for the strap on this week's episode of WWE Raw, is now back at an appropriate price of 33/1. His odds were halved from 12/1 in early-September. I assumed this was a speculative punt from somebody who either thought Corbin would cash in the Money in the Bank briefcase after Braun Strowman handed it over to him in a backstage segment of Raw (something that was suggested to me) or they predicted a scenario, just like what we saw on Raw this week, where Corbin used his power to award himself a title match.

As an aside - I have yet to publish a post all about how the 'Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar' market was settled. I have everything ready to write about it, so expect it within the next week or so.

Becky Lynch Succeeds Charlotte Flair

Becky Lynch's WWE Smackdown Women's Championship victory over Charlotte Flair at Hell in a Cell 2018 this past Sunday resulted in the former winning betting markets that were priced up in the aftermath of SummerSlam.

Sky Bet and Kambi both put up specials where their customers could punt on who they believed would succeed Flair for the blue brand's women's title. 

Both opened with Lynch as the favourite. This is unsurprising as the Irish Lass Kicker turned heel on Flair following their triple threat match against Carmella on August 19th.

Sky Bet's special was priced up a day following Flair's victory. Lynch was installed at 1/2 and ended backed into 1/5 by September 5th. 

Kambi also closed with Lynch at 1/5. This market was first published on August 30th with the eventual winner at 1/4.

You can view how the betting went with both firms in the tables below.

WWE Smackdown Women's Champion After Charlotte Flair - Sky Bet
Sky Bet's Champion After Charlotte Flair Market

WWE Smackdown Women's Champion After Charlotte Flair - Kambi
Kambi's Champion After Charlotte Flair Market