Friday, 26 August 2016

Undertaker Now 12/1 To Main Event WrestleMania 33 & More

If you've read yesterday's post, you would have seen that the oddsmakers at the Betfair Sportsbook had moved The Undertaker's odds to be in the main event of WrestleMania 33 out from 10/1 to 25/1. They have now dropped to 12/1.

Earlier this year, I noted that the betting firm had published odds where its customers could wager on the main event participants at next year's show and had a punt on Taker at 10/1 on the chance that WWE puts him and John Cena against each other in a bout that was originally penciled in for this year's WrestleMania. An injury to John Cena forced the company to go off in a different route that saw Shane McMahon taking on The Deadman inside the Hell in a Cell.

So, if I thought 10/1 was a decent price for a speculative punt, I was definitely not going to turn my nose up at 25s.

It's worth noting, however, that there is no guarantee that John Cena .vs. The Undertaker is still a plan. The Undertaker has told people that he is done. Although, he has said similar things in the past. Another reason I would warn against building your hopes up for an Undertaker main event is that there is no guarantee that Undertaker/Cena will go on last. Betfair will consider the final match of the night the main event, so if WWE does the usual hype claiming to have 'three main events' or something, it'll be the final match of the night that pays out.

Another name that I have backed has been The Rock. His price had been 10/1, was cut to 8/1 at the start of August, but has now moved back out to 10s.

I placed my bets on The Rock before he started teasing tension between he and Vin Diesel. If what he's doing is to build to a match, I can't see it going last. It's a mainstream grabber, but should not be the finale.

Bill Goldberg is a name that I have not bet on. However, it appears that he saw some interest yesterday as his price was halved from 100/1.

In my opinion, a Bill Goldberg match at WrestleMania - if one were to take place next year - should not be the top of the card. Even if his opponent is someone like Brock Lesnar, it fits into the semi-final spot at best.

Seth Rollins and Finn Balor are now joint-favourites in this market at 6/4.

I can't argue with that. Finn Balor is one of my picks to win the 2017 WWE Royal Rumble and Balor chasing the Universal Champion to WrestleMania could be a story they go with if he has healed in time for WrestleMania season.

Another price worth watching is AJ Styles at 8/1. He had started off at 10/1, but was cut down to 8s a few weeks ago. He's set to face Dean Ambrose for the WWE Championship at Backlash in a little over two weeks, so he could be the one to beat come April 2nd. I would not be surprised to see the price plummet if he leaves Backlash as champ.

Betfair's WWE WrestleMania 33 Specials are found under 'Special Bets' on the Betfair Website.

Thursday, 25 August 2016

Comment Bag : 25 August 2016

I had quite a few comments this week. Most of them are concerning the 'upset' from SummerSlam.

Brian left this early on Monday morning:

This was the first WWE event I've ever watched. Can someone explain how such a massive upset happens (regarding the Carmella .vs. Bell tag team match)? The odds swung massively in Carmella's favor right before the match started. Wouldn't that imply someone has insider info on the outcome?

I'm not complaining since I got lucky and bet on Natalya's team. I'm just curious how these massive shifts and upsets happen.

As I stated, there are a few comments like this, so apologies if I repeat myself throughout this post.

My response to Brian: A huge swing moving in right before the start of the PPV is almost certainly a sign that people with inside knowledge have backed the winner. This obviously was not the case in this example. You could point to Saturday night as the time when potential smart money landed on Natalya's team as they moved from +350 outsiders at 8:30pm then moved into -300 somewhere between 11pm BST and early Sunday morning. Their odds continued to drop throughout Sunday until that late move that must have panicked the sportsbook.

Keiran asked:

What would you say could be the reason Carmella's team was backed late on Sunday? Is there two different sets of  people that know the results of matches? One being, let's say writers even though probably not as far up as that or just tech people?

My response to Keiran: I think part - and it's a slight part - of the reason is because they kept Nikki on a bus to come out as a surprise. Apparently, they claim she was hidden away and neither her team-mates or opponents knew who the third member would end up being. Considering Bella was involved in the finish of the match, a few must have known. If other people were unaware of the third person, you could make a case that they made safety bets but this would be a presumption on my part.

As for the final part - without stating too much, there's enough out there to suggest that the wagering goes further than you think. Disco Inferno is on record as saying that as soon as the TNA booking meetings ended, he would be on the phone to a cadre of people with their betting accounts opened to place wagers on TNA results. If it happened there, it would be short-sighted of anyone to claim it doesn't happen elsewhere.

Another comment:

Maybe the first idea was Eva Marie's team lose and someone bet a lot of money on it. They 100% changed the match when Nikki's return was confirmed. But that was a very strange flip. Maybe a bookmaker mistake?

My response: It can't have been much to do with Eva Marie's suspension as the match odds weren't published until after it was announced she was out for thirty days. As noted above, the Saturday night money gives credibility to the notion that the team that won on Sunday were booked to win from the start. Can't see a reason why it could be a bookmaker mistake as the odds were shifted from one side to the other. The adjustment was intentional as it was the prices that were switched completely. They would have left them be otherwise.

BiggTerror asks:

Do you have records for all events from the past couple of years?

My response: Yes, from this weekend all the way back to SummerSlam 2013. All in a database that I refer to occasionally.
I also have a few early, but not closing, odds for some WrestleManias so am unable to add them to the database because I like to record the closing odds.

Finally, this came in from Anonymous:

Do you think Undertaker .vs. Cena will be the main event of Mania 33? On Betfair.com, Undertaker is currently 25/1 which I think is an amazing price considering Kalisto is 20/1. What do you think?

My response: I wrote about this in April  Back then, Undertaker was 10/1 and I wrote something along the lines of 'WWE wanted to have Undertaker versus John Cena at this year's show, so I'm betting on the possibility that they go with the match in 2017'.

There are a few things in the way. Firstly, is it a main event or will be the semi-main? If it had taken place at WrestleMania 32, I still think they would have put HHH versus Reigns as the main event. Now that we have two titles, I can see them going with a marquee match on top (just like this weekend). One thing that works against this is The Undertaker - he has said that he is done in the past and came back. One day he's going to say it and mean it.

I have been backing The Rock in this spot as well, but I absolutely like that they've pushed Taker to 25/1 now. It is worth a speculative punt.

Wednesday, 24 August 2016

The SummerSlam 2016 'Upset'

In the days following a WWE pay-per-view, I add bits of information into a database so as to keep an at a glance record of how the betting went.

One of the things I note is how many favourites or underdogs won on a particular show. The reason why I'm sharing this with you today is because I am putting the Carmella's team versus Natalya's team from Sunday down as an 'upset'.

As we know, there was a late flip in the market just before the PPV. We witnessed the heavy favourites, Natalya's group, move out from -2000 to +1000. They entered the match as +1300 outsiders yet ended up being victorious after the returning Nikki Bella pinned Carmella.

The bets that came in on the team late on Saturday, when they moved from +350 to -300, could be attributed to people with knowledge of the eventual result backing the trio. However, I have reluctantly opted to call this match an 'upset' even though the tell is pointing to inside money landing either on the Saturday night or early Sunday morning before SummerSlam.

The reason is simple - when I keep record, I go by what the closing odds are so that's why I am backed into regarding the SummerSlam favourites as going 12-1 (92%).

For those of you interested, here are the four years of SummerSlam wagering has gone starting with 2013, the first event I covered properly here at WWELeaks.org.

SummerSlam 2013: 6-2
SummerSlam 2014: 8-0
SummerSlam 2015: 9-0
SummerSlam 2016: 12-1
Overall: 35-3 (92%)

35-3, 36-2.. whichever way you look at it, you cannot deny that it's just a coincidence. Something that is still being suggested after all these years.

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Still Hoping Balor Wins The 2017 Royal Rumble

Despite now having been forced to relinquish the WWE Universal Championship and facing a six-month layoff, Finn Balor should still be worth a punt to win the 2017 WWE Royal Rumble.

In late-July, I suggested he was worth a shout to win next year's battle royal because I was anticipating him losing the WWE Universal Championship match to Seth Rollins at SummerSlam, beginning a feud with Roman Reigns and then eventually ending up getting a title shot to wrestle for the championship at WrestleMania with a Rumble victory.

This prediction failed the first hurdle, but all is not lost. All that matters is a Royal Rumble win.

And I am not counting it out just yet.

As we now know, Balor won WWE's newly-created title this past Sunday. He has since been forced to hand over the strap after injuring his shoulder during the match.

The wrestler is expected out for six months. This obviously points to him returning beyond January. However, there have been many wrestlers in the past that have made their comebacks ahead of time. If he repeats this trend, a Rumble win would be a perfect way to bring him straight back into the title picture in time for WrestleMania season.

For what it's worth, he's currently 6/1 with the betting firms on this list.

Monday, 22 August 2016

SummerSlam 2016 Betting Favourites

Here are the WWE SummerSlam 2016 favourites.

They are ranked in order of strength of odds.

JeriKO -2750
Rusev -2750
Gallows and Anderson -2750
Brock Lesnar -2300
AJ Styles -2300
Zayn and Neville -2000 (Pre-Show Winners)
American Alpha and Co. -2000 (Pre-Show Winners)
Carmella's Team -2000
Dean Ambrose -2000
Finn Balor -1700
Sheamus -1700 (Pre-Show Winner)
Charlotte -1500
The Miz -900

Odds from 5Dimes.com.

Don't forget you can still bet on the PPV throughout the night at 5Dimes and also on the following pages: