Sunday, 18 August 2019

KOTR 2019 Betting Update For August 18th

I have visited the King of the Ring 2019 outright winner markets at both Sky Bet and William Hill and have noted the changes that have been made to them since yesterday.

Sky Bet
In the market from Sky Bet, one selection is showing a shorter price than a little over twenty-four hours ago and it's the one for a Baron Corbin win.

The selection has been cut from 6/1 into 4/1 while Kevin Owens (9/2 to 5/1) and Ricochet (6/1 to 7/1) have drifted out.

Even though I haven't made the adjustment in the image below, Corbin now moves up to second-favourite while Owens replaces him in third.

Sky Bet's King of the Ring 2019 Betting Odds

William Hill
Corbin's price has also lowered with William Hill.

William Hill's King of the Ring Betting Odds

As you can see, the selection has dropped from 9/2 into 3/1. As a result, Kevin Owens has drifted out to 9/2 from 7/2 and the favourite - Drew McIntyre - is now 3/1 from 5/2.

Saturday, 17 August 2019

William Hill's KOTR Odds For August 17th

Here are the William Hill Sportsbook's WWE King of the Ring outright winner odds as of 7:30PM BST this evening.

William Hill's WWE King of the Ring Odds As Of August 17th 2019

I last wrote about these prices in a post published a day ago. This was shortly before WWE announced the brackets for the tournament. There have been a number of changes made since this announcement.

Seven of the participants' prices have shortened. They are:
  • Kevin Owens 6/1 to 7/2
  • Baron Corbin 11/2 to 9/2
  • Andrade 8/1 to 6/1
  • Ali 14/1 to 10/1
  • Buddy Murphy 20/1 to 16/1
  • Cedric Alexander 50/1 to 20/1
  • Chad Gable 100/1 to 66/1
Of those that have drifted, the most interesting - in my opinion - is that of the favourite: Drew McIntyre.

As you can view in the table above, McIntyre was a 3/1 favourite when I first came across the market on Thursday evening. He was then down to 7/4 at about this time yesterday evening and is now up to 5/2.


Prices correct as of 7:30PM BST and taken from William Hill's TV/Specials Page.

Sky Bet's KOTR Odds For Saturday August 17th

Sky Bet - King of the Ring Outright Winner Betting Odds

I've just had a look at Sky Bets' outright winner market for the upcoming WWE King of the Ring tournament in order to compare the current prices with those from yesterday afternoon.

Of all the selections, the one that is showing a price shorter than lunchtime on Friday is Andrade. He is now 8/1, which is down from 9/1 and the 10/1 from the day before that.

Andrade is set to face Apollo Crews in the first round (if WWE sticks to its current bracket) and, if he goes over, will then face the winner out of Chad Gable and Shelton Benjamin.

On paper, it does look like an easy route to the semi-finals on the Smackdown side of the bracketing.

As a result of Andrade's price being lowered, the bookies have moved Elias up to 10/1. He's set to meet Kevin Owens in their first round with the winner of that match moving on to face the winner out of Ali and Buddy Murphy.

Friday, 16 August 2019

WWE Releases KOTR Tournament Bracket

King of the Ring 2019 Tournament Bracket

WWE has revealed the brackets for the King of the Ring tournament that begins on TV next week.

On the Raw side, the opening matches will be:

Cesaro .vs. Samoa Joe
Ricochet .vs. Drew McIntyre

Cedric Alexander .vs. Sami Zayn
The Miz .vs. Baron Corbin

On the other side, with matches that will take place on Smackdown, they have:

Kevin Owens .vs. Elias
Ali .vs. Buddy Murphy

Chad Gable .vs. Shelton Benjamin
Apollo Crews .vs. Andrade

The biggest match at this stage has to be Ricochet versus Drew McIntyre only because it's a match containing two names at the top of betting markets.

Kambi's KOTR Markets Published

The oddsmakers from Kambi published a plethora of King of the Ring betting markets today.

Along with the 'Tournament Winner' market that you'd expect from a bookmaker with KOTR betting opportunities, the bookies have also included markets in which customers can place bets on the winner from the Raw and Smackdown sides of the tournament.

Drew McIntyre is 13/10 to be the overall winner. He's 4/6 to be Raw's representative in the final while Kevin Owens is 9/10 to be the finalist from the blue brand.

And there's more.

Other markets that can be found are:

- An alphabetical proposition market where clients can bet on the first initial of the tournament winner. There are three selections (A-B, C-D or E-Z)
- Brand of winner
- Nationality of winner
- Age of winner (the options are '34 years or less' and '35 years or more')
- Best finishing position head-to-heads
- Stage of elimination wagering for all the announced participants

As well as those, and I will get into them in the next day or so, there is a 'Group Betting' market in which people can bet on the winner as part of a group.

There are three to choose from. They are:

- TOP BABYFACES (Ali, Cedric Alexander, Kevin Owens, Ricochet and The Miz)
- TOP HEELS (Andrade, Baron Corbin, Drew McIntyre, Elias and Samoa Joe)
- OTHERS (Apollo Crews, Buddy Murphy, Cesaro, Chad Gable, Sami Zayn and Shelton Benjamin)

The 'Top Babyface' group is 23/20, the 'Top Heel' selection is 1/3 and those that fall into the 'Others' category are 7/1.

The markets can be found on any of the websites with Kambi's WWE/Pro Wrestling markets. An example can be found on the link below.

William Hill's KOTR Odds For August 16th

It has been over a day since I published a post looking at the William Hill Sportsbook's King of the Ring market and thought I'd publish a short update to note the changes that have been made.

William Hill's WWE King of the Ring Betting Odds

Drew McIntyre, Ricochet and Baron Corbin have all had their prices reduced over the past day and a bit.

McIntyre remains a favourite, but his odds have been moved to 7/4 from 3/1 while Baron Corbin is now 11/2 from 13/2.

Ricochet has lowered from 8/1 into 9/2 second-favourite. Earlier today, a friend of mine from Australia sent across a screen capture of an Australian sportsbook that opened with Ricochet as a 2/1 fave, so it was interesting to see his price lowered over here.

William Hill's WWE markets can be found under 'TV/Specials' on the Sportsbook's Website.

How Kambi Settled Its G1 Climax 29 Observer Head-to-Head Markets

In the weeks leading up to this year's NJPW G1 Climax tournament, the oddsmakers from Kambi created three head-to-head markets in which customers could place bets on how opposing matches would fare in Dave Meltzer's reviews inside the Wrestling Observer Newsletter.

The first head-to-head had two of Will Ospreay's matches competing against each other. One was for the night seven match against Kazuchika Okada and the other was for night 11's bout with Zack Sabre Junior.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Head-to-Head Betting

The bookies had the ZSJ match as a 17/20 favourite when the market opened on June 26th. The Okada match was 11/10 and the selection to bet on both matches receiving the 'Same Star Rating' was 43/20.

The night seven match with Okada - as we now know - was the match of the tournament. It was awarded five-and-three-quarters in Meltzer's review, so it should really go without saying that it won against the four-and-a-half stars the Sabre match received.

This market was settled when the August 5th issue of the Observer was published online on August 1st.

The two remaining head-to-head markets contained bouts that were set to run right to the end of the block matches.

The second was specific to two more of Kazuchika Okada's tournament. The first was for his night one main event win over Hiroshi Tanahashi while the second was for the A Block finale against Kota Ibushi.

When the market was published, the bookies had the Ibushi match as a 9/10 favourite, the Tanahashi bout was 11/10 and the 'Same Star Rating' option was 2/1.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Observer Head-to-Heads

The winning selection turned out to be the contest with Ibushi from night seventeen. It was given five stars and beat the night one match with Tanahashi by half a star.

Even though I blindly backed the 'Same Star Rating' in the above two markets, I was even more keen to see how the third market would end up being settled.

It was focused on bouts within B Block and had the Tetsuya Naito .vs. Jay White match, which was the main event of B Block's final night, going up against 'Any Other B Block Match'.

I felt that it was worth a gamble backing all of the B Block matches against Naito and White, so sided with the option when it was EVS.  As you'll see - by clicking on the table below - the 'Naito .vs. White' selection was also EVS when it was first installed on June 26th. 

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Observer Head-to-Heads

Other customers evidently thought the 'Any Other B Block Match' selection was worth a gamble as its odds plummeted from day one and was moved to 1/6 by the end of July. 

As the tournament was in progress, I kept my eye on the star ratings results of B Block to see what Naito and White needed to beat when it came time for them to wrestle each other on August 11th.

Before any matches had been fought, I felt Tomohiro Ishii .vs. Tetsuya Naito had the best chance of doing better than Naito .vs. White. And I was right.

Sort of.

Ishii .vs. Naito was awarded four-and-a-half stars in the issue that covered the night eight main event. This was a quarter of a star better than Naito's outing with White on night eighteen.

The real winner, however, was Ishii's meeting with Shingo Takagi from night sixteen. It was the best match from B Block with a score of five-and-a-half stars.

There are still many more G1 Climax 29 posts in the pipeline. Keep checking back for more.

Sky Bet's KOTR Winner Odds 24 Hours Later

It has been a day since Sky Bet published its King of the Ring market, so I've looked back at it to see how today's prices differ from yesterday's post.

There are three selections showing shorter odds than twenty-four hours ago.

The first is Andrade. He has moved down one from 10/1.

Baron Corbin's price has lowered from 16/1 to 6/1.

Drew McIntyre is now a sole-favourite after sharing the spot - at 9/2 - with Kevin Owens. He is now at 6/4. Owens has stalled at 9/2, but is now a second fave.

Sky Bet's King of the Ring Odds For August 16th 2019

How Kambi Settled Its G1 Climax 29 Highest Rated Match Markets

Now that this year's G1 Climax has ended, and the edition of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter with Dave Meltzer's final reviews of the events has been published, I intend to take a look back at the Observer-themed betting markets that Kambi had available for customers in the weeks leading into and during the tournament.

In this post, I'll cover the markets in which customers could have placed wagers on the Match of the Tournament.

The bout that ended up with the most star ratings out of all of Dave Meltzer's reviews of the tournament turned out to be the A Block meeting between Kazuchika Okada and Will Ospreay from the seventh night.

It received five-and-three-quarter stars.

As you can see in the table below, the bout was 7/1 when Kambi first published the market in June. It fell to 11/2 by July 2nd, which was eighteen days before the match. Then - by July 12th - it was down to 5/1.

The bout took place on July 20th. As soon as I watched it, I thought it had a strong chance of being the best match of the tournament, so backed it when it was 5/1. A few days after that, Dave Meltzer's match report was published in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter and the editor gave the contest the five-and-three-quarter rating.

Still, there were many more nights of action left and Kambi continued to accept wagers on that bout and others albeit, not long after the match was confirmed as a 5.75 classic, the bookies slashed its odds to 1/10.

It was moved up to 1/8 a day before the final block rounds began and stayed at that price. The move up coincided with bets coming in on a potential Kota Ibushi .vs. Tetsuya Naito final being the match of the tournament. The odds for that selection went down from 40/1 (Jul 28) to 7/1 (Aug 2) to 4/1 (Aug 9) and closed at the 13/4 it had fallen to by the morning of August 10th (A Block's final round).

As we now know, Naito didn't win B Block, so the gambles had no chance of paying of.

You can view, in the table below, all of the price changes I recorded before and during the tournament.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Highest Rated Match of the Tournament Result

The selections in the peach/pink colour were bouts from A Block, those in grey were ones that could have only happened in a final,  the green covered any block and potential final matches from the named person and the blue was for any B Block matches. In this case, it was for the B Block finale between Naito and Jay White.

The rating that Ospreay and Okada received for their match meant that the 'Exact Star Rating of the Highest Rated Match' market was settled with the 'Exactly 5.75 Stars' option.

As you can see below, it started off at 2/1 but was then slashed into 1/14 shortly after Meltzer's review of the match was published.

The selection did move up slightly. Just like with the market I wrote about above, the eventual winner was moved up on the Friday before the final weekend of shows. In this case, the selection went from 1/14 to 1/10.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Exact Star Rating of the Highest Rated Match of the Tournament Result

As you can see in the table, there appears to have been some punters gambling on Meltzer rating one of the later matches in the tournament more than he did for Okada .vs. Ospreay as the 'Exactly 6.0 Stars' began to descend as soon as the 5.75 was awarded to the night seven match.

I still have more G1 Climax 29 betting posts to publish. I'm not sure when they'll see the light of day, but they are coming. The next will cover the head-to-head markets that were released.

Thursday, 15 August 2019

William Hill's KOTR Market Published

William Hill is another sports betting firm that has published an outright winner market for the WWE King of the Ring tournament that begins on TV next week.

Drew McIntyre is currently a 3/1 favourite. He's following by Kevin Owens (9/2), Baron Corbin (13/2) all the way down to Chad Gable, Apollo Crews and Shelton Benjamin who are all 100/1.

The full list of selections, and their respective odds, are:

Drew McIntyre 3/1
Kevin Owens 9/2
Baron Corbin 13/2
Ali 8/1
Ricochet 8/1
Andrade 8/1
Samoa Joe 10/1
Elias 12/1
Buddy Murphy 16/1
The Miz 16/1
Cesaro 20/1
Sami Zayn 20/1
Cedric Alexander 25/1
Chad Gable 100/1
Apollo Crews 100/1
Shelton Benjamin 100/1

The winner will be decided in a final that's scheduled to take place at WWE Clash of Champions on September 15th.

How Kambi's SummerSlam 2019 Weekend Observer Markets Were Settled

As mentioned in the most recent post, this week's issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter was published this morning. It not only includes Dave Meltzer's reviews of the final batch of G1 Climax tournament events, but also the NXT TakeOver and WWE SummerSlam shows that took place over the weekend.

The oddsmakers from Kambi published a handful of Wrestling Observer star ratings for the aforementioned shows, so - in this post - I'll take a look over those that for the matches that took place at both NXT TakeOver: Toronto and WWE SummerSlam 2019.

The bookies had Over/Under star ratings lines for the five bouts that took place at TakeOver. Of the five, only one of them went 'Over' and it was for the Io Shirai versus Candice LeRae match.

Kambi had the line set at 2.75 stars, but Dave Meltzer gave it four-and-a-quarter, so it went over the line. And then some.

Kambi's NXT TakeOver: Toronto Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

There was a mixed bunch of results for the WWE SummerSlam 2019 Over/Unders. As you'll see, there were Overs, Unders and even a trio of 'Exactly' wins.

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

Brock Lesnar .vs. Seth Rollins match - for the WWE Universal Championship - was the highest rated match of the night. It received four-and-a-quarter stars and was a quarter of a star higher than the line. I had a feeling it would go under.

Another selection I slipped up on was for the Bray Wyatt versus Finn Balor match. I thought it had a slight chance of going over two stars, but it landed right on two.

The 'Highest Rated Match' market had the 'Universal Championship' selection as a 33/20 second-favourite throughout the weekend and will now be graded as a winner thanks to the performances from everyone involved in the Seth Rollins versus Brock Lesnar match.

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

Another market that will be settled with odds of 33/20 is the one in which customers could have bet on the 'Exact Star Rating of the Highest Rated Match'. The  winning selection was the 'Exactly 4.25 Stars' selection was a joint-second favourite.from Saturday morning right up to Sunday evening.

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

The bookmakers also released two head-to-head markets for SummerSlam. 

In these specials, customers had the chance to bet which - of two contrasted matches - would receive the most stars in Dave Meltzer's review of the PPV.

The first head-to-head had the Kevin Owens .vs. Shane McMahon and Charlotte Flair versus Trish Stratus opposing one another.

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

The winning selection turned out to be the Charlotte Flair .vs. Trish Stratus contest as it received three-and-a-quarter stars while Owens versus McMahon scored two stars.

As you can see from the betting, the consensus was evidently on Owens .vs. McMahon as the price was cut from EVS into 3/6 across the weekend.

The eventual winning selection went out from EVS to 6/4 in the same period.

Head-to-Head number two saw Becky Lynch .vs. Natalya compete against the WWE Championship match between Kofi Kingston and Randy Orton.

From wagering, you can see that the customers backed the 'WWE Championship' match. It had started out at 19/20 on Saturday morning, but was down to 4/6 a few hours before the show started.

As a result of the 'WWE Championship' moving in, the bookies pushed 'Raw Women's Championship' out from 19/20 all the way to 13/10 while keeping the option to wager on both matches receiving an identical number of stars at 9/4.

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

Lynch .vs. Natalya did indeed beat Kingston .vs. Orton as it had three-and-a-quarter stars to the males' two-and-a-half.

Four Wrestling Observer star ratings proposition markets were also published for SummerSlam.

In the first one - titled 'Curtain Raiser' - customers were asked to bet whether or not the first match of the main card would end up getting the most stars in Meltzer's review of the event.

Seeing as the main event won match of the night, it should go without saying that the 'No' was the winning selection. Looking at the betting, it appears at least one punter was of the opinion that the opener would not get the most stars as the 'No' was cut from 13/25 into 1/2 sometime before 3:30PM BST on Sunday afternoon.

The prop titled 'Joint Winners' allowed gamblers to bet whether or not there would be two matches sharing the award for the 'Highest Rated Match of the Night'. Once again, it was the 'No' which won as the four-and-a-quarter stars for Seth Rollins' Universal Championship win over Brock Lesnar was not matched by any of the other bouts on Sunday's card. The winning selection was 7/20 throughout the weekend.

'Lowest Rated' was a proposition which asked the customer whether Bill Goldberg versus Dolph Ziggler would get the least amount of stars in Dave Meltzer's review of the match. 

If you look at the list of star ratings above, you'll see that Goldberg versus Ziggler was given three stars and there are matches that fall below three. Therefore, the winning selection - once again - is 'No'. It was 7/20 through the weekend.

'Yes' was the winning selection - at odds of 1/12 - in the prop named 'Title Match'. In this market clients were given the opportunity to wager on any of the championship matches on the SummerSlam card receiving the most stars in the review. 

Kambi's WWE SummerSlam 2019 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

There were a few more NXT/SummerSlam Observer specials that also included NJPW G1 Climax. I'll get to them in another post in the very near future.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Update For August 15th

This week's episode of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter includes Dave Meltzer's reviews of the final three nights of this year's NJPW G1 Climax tournament. Therefore, Kambi's oddsmakers will now be able to tie up the loose ends and settle the remaining G1 Observer markets that were published before - or during - the tournament.

In this post, I'll write about the last seven Over/Under star ratings markets that Kambi published starting with the last night of A Block and ending with the Kota Ibushi .vs. Jay White final.

KENTA .vs. Zack Sabre Jr.
The bookmakers set a line of four-and-a-half stars for the KENTA .vs. Zack Sabre Jr. match when the market was published at the end of June. 

The winning selection turned out to be the 'Exactly 4.50 Stars' because Meltzer graded it exactly where Kambi had estimated.

As you can see below, the best price customers would have found was the 43/20 that was available from late-July to early August.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - KENTA .vs. ZSJ

Will Ospreay .vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi
Another Over/Under market that fell 'Exactly' on the line was the one for the Will Ospreay versus Hiroshi Tanahashi match. 

Dave Meltzer gave it four-and-three-quarters.

This is another one where 43/20 turned out to be the best price. This was available when the market was initially priced up. It was lowered to 2/1, but went back up to 43/20 in the later round of betting.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Ospreay .vs. Tanahashi

Kota Ibushi .vs. Kazuchika Okada
Five stars were given to the A Block decider between Kota Ibushi and Kazuchika Okada, which was won by the former.

The star rating result means that the winning selection will be the 'Over' as Kambi had the line set at 4.75.

Its best price was the earliest available - EVS. The selection began to slip a month later and closed at 4/6.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Ibushi .vs. Okada

Jon Moxley .vs. Juice Robinson
Juice Robinson's win over Jon Moxley was given four-and-a-quarter stars in Meltzer's review of night eighteen. This went 'Over' the line of four stars.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Moxley .vs. Robinson

Hirooki Goto .vs. Shingo Takagi
An Over/Under for the Hirooki Goto .vs. Shingo Takagi match was first published on August 9th. The line for it was set at four-and-a-half stars. 

The result was another one for the 'Over' as Meltzer's rating was a quarter of a star above the line.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Goto .vs. Takagi

Kambi's best price for the 'Over' was the closing 13/10. It moved out to that number from 23/20 a couple of days after opening.

Tetsuya Naito .vs. Jay White
Jay White's win in the B Block decider against Tetsuya Naito was given four-and-a-quarter stars in the report. This was below Kambi's line of 4.75, so the winning selection turned out to be the 'Under'.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Naito .vs. White

As you can see from the betting, the customers evidently thought that the line was set too high as the odds for the 'Under' were lowered across most of the time that the market was available. However, the last sign of action appears to have gone the way of both the 'Over' and 'Exactly' options as the 'Under' was moved up.

Kota Ibushi .vs. Jay White
The G1 Climax 29 final had a line of 4.75 stars when the Over/Under market was published on Sunday evening. 

Meltzer rated the match five-and-a-half stars, so the winning selection is the 'Over'. It was 6/5 when the market was opened.

G1 Climax 29 Observer Star Ratings Betting - Ibushi .vs. White


Results From All Of Kambi's G1 Climax 29 O/U Markets
Here's a table with the complete star ratings results for all of the G1 Climax 29 matches that Kambi had Observer markets for.

They start with the Kota Ibushi .vs. KENTA match from night one all the way through to the final from August 12th.

G1 Climax 29 Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Results

McIntyre And Owens Betting Favourites To Become King Of The Ring

Drew McIntyre and Kevin Owens are joint-favourites to win the upcoming WWE King of the Ring tournament.

A market, in which Sky Bet customers can place wagers on the person who they believe will be crowned the King of the Ring, was published today with the joint-faves at 9/2.

The list contains the names of the Raw and Smackdown stars that have been announced for the tourney. They are:

Drew McIntyre 9/2
Kevin Owens 9/2
Ricochet 5/1
Samoa Joe 5/1
Elias 13/2
The Miz 13/2
Ali 9/1
Andrade 10/1
Sami Zayn 12/1
Baron Corbin 16/1
Buddy Murphy 16/1
Cedric Alexander 20/1
Cesaro 20/1
Apollo Crews 33/1
Chad Gable 40/1
Shelton Benjamin 40/1

The matches begin on next week's episodes of WWE Monday Night Raw and WWE Smackdown and will conclude at the WWE Clash of Champions PPV on September 15th.

Tuesday, 13 August 2019

WWE To AEW Exodus Betting Notes For Mid-August 2019

When I checked Kambi's professional wrestling markets yesterday morning, I noticed that the WWE to AEW Exodus special in which customers can place bets on the wrestler/s currently contracted to WWE who will next join AEW was back up.

It's no longer available, so I thought I'd publish a short post pointing out the odds from yesterday as all of the selections had changed.

AEW Exodus Betting Odds - August 12th 2019

The selection which covers either member of The Revival  departing WWE for AEW was still the favourite. However, its price was down to 23/20 from 5/4.

Matt Hardy was cut from 17/1 into 7/4 joint-second favourite. I surmise this could be because Hardy mentioned - in a recent interview with Sky Sports - that he believes there are three years left on his career.

Sasha Banks is alongside Hardy at 7/4. Her price was previously 13/4 and I'd guess there's a chance she could drift back out now that she has returned to TV.

Harper was 9/2 before yesterday, but was 4/1 when I looked.

Daniel Bryan has moved in from 12s to 11/2 and Randy Orton is now 13/2 from 9/1.

The selections that have moved out are The Undertaker (12/1 to 15/1) who has reportedly signed a new deal with WWE, Paige (6/1 to 20/1), Gallows and Anderson (17/1 to 80/1 because they've signed new deals).

The biggest leap has been made by the Shinsuke Nakamura selection. It has gone from 5/4 into 66/1.

Monday, 12 August 2019

England Wins Bookie .vs. Blogger .vs. Punters SummerSlam 2019 Edition

England was the winning player in the SummerSlam 2019 edition of Bookie .vs. Blogger .vs. Punters.

For those who haven't been following, 'England' is represented by The Bookie in this four nations version of Bookie .vs. Blogger that we've played a couple of times now.

In these games, four of us make our predictions for upcoming PPVs and rank our picks based on how strong our opinions are. The wrestler/s we believe have the most chance of winning their match are given the most points while the wrestler/s we feel have the lowest chance of winning get one point.

Once the PPV is over, we tally up the points to find a winner.

England  - AKA The Bookie -  finished off with fifty-four points, I was next (Wales) with 46 and then the WrestleMania 35 winner - Scotland - finished third. Ireland's huge gamble on Ember Moon to win the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship resulted in him finishing fourth.

The Bookie's only loss came with his one point play - Randy Orton. 

During the PPV, Orton and Kofi Kingston fought to a double countout in the WWE Championship match so all of us lost on that match. 

The results table can be viewed below.

Bookie .vs. Blogger .vs. Punters - SummerSlam 2019

Kota Ibushi Wins G1 Climax 29

Kota Ibushi is this year's G1 Climax winner after beating Jay White in the tournament final a few moments ago.

The wrestler was a betting favourite when Kambi's market for the tourney was first installed in June. Back then, he started off at odds of 5/4 to be crowned this year's winner. 

5/4 was not the best price customers would have found him, however. 

As the tournament was in progress - and Kazuchika Okada was dominating A Block - the oddsmakers moved Ibushi out to 3/1. 

The market was last made available a couple of days ago with the eventual winner closing as a 4/5 fave.

You can view how I tracked Kambi's outright winner market in the table below.

G1 Climax 29 - Outright Winner Market

The tournament winner market isn't the only G1 Climax special that will be settled following today's result. 

A few days ago, Kambi released a special in which customers could place wagers on the person they felt would end up being the 'Losing Finalist'.

Jay White, who earned a place in today's final by winning B Block, will be the winning selection. He kicked off at 2/1 on Tuesday and was pushed to 13/5 by Friday. From there, his price was moved down.

Despite his odds lowering, he still closed as in third place behind Ibushi and Tetsuya Naito - the person he beat in the final match of B Block.

White's final price was 23/10. You can view how all the selections performed in the table below.

G1 Climax 29 - Losing Finalist Betting Market

This isn't the last G1 Climax 29 post I'll publish. There will be more. However, I don't know what the ETA is. 


G1 And AEW Betting Notes For August 12th

After watching SummerSlam live, I went to bed and woke up half an hour before the start of today's NJPW show to get the late Kambi odds for the G1 Climax final. Unfortunately, I missed them so all I can work with as the final is in progress are the prices that I wrote about yesterday.

A match winner market was published early yesterday evening with A Block winner - Kota Iushi - a 13/20 favourite. His opposition - Jay White - was 11/10.

I also pointed out that there were 'Match Duration' and Wrestling Observer star ratings markets for the bout.

The line for the 'Match Duration' was set at twenty-seven minutes. The oddsmakers had the 'Over' at EVS while the 'Under' was offered as a 7/10 favourite. As noted in the aforementioned post, I took a gamble on the match lasting longer than twenty-seven.

The star rating line was set at 4.75.

Even though I missed the NJPW markets being taken down, I did find new All Elite Wrestling markets.

The bookmaker has released a match winner market for the Cody .vs. Shawn Spears match that will take place at AEW All Out. As of this morning, both wrestlers are at 17/20.

An Observer star ratings market is also available. The line is 3.75. 

Those aren't the only new AEW markets. There is a special that's specific to the AEW TV show debut on TNT.

Customers can bet how many average viewers the debut episode gets on October 2nd. As you'll see in the image below, there are three options - 'Under 0.75 Milion', '0.75 - 1.49 Million' and '1.5 Million Or More'.

AEW on TNT Debut Betting Market

I have an opinion about the AEW TV number that should point me to betting on the 'Under'. I don't even know if I want to bet against the company, but I feel there's something glaring that I am aware of that makes me believe - or rather, have an uneducated guess - the debut episode will not go beyond 750,000.

And I'm not even referring to NXT possibly being on FOX Sports to siphon off some of the audience.

Take a look at AEW's social media numbers. It does not paint a pretty picture in my eyes. 

The Young Bucks' YouTube followers for the Being The Elite Show have 393,193 followers and 330K on Twitter as of this morning, the AEW YouTube channel has 364, 931 and Twitter followers are at 367K .

You would call a portion of those numbers 'hardcore', but then you have to take a portion away as there's bound to be a percentage that lives outside of the US, so would not be able to watch the show on TNT. 

It's important to note that AEW has built its ticket and PPV business from social media, so I personally think that the social media numbers are important here even though, like I said, this is all guesswork on my part.

750,000 seems high, but do I bet against AEW??

WWE SummerSlam 2019 Betting Favourites

Here are the WWE SummerSlam 2019 betting favourites as the PPV was starting. The selections are ranked in order of strength with the favourite with the shortest odds first.

Bray Wyatt -2,210
Goldberg -780
Becky Lynch -445
Charlotte Flair -420
Kofi Kingston -380
Drew Gulak -380 (Pre-show Winner)
Brock Lesnar -290
Kofi Kingston -230
AJ Styles -160
Ember Moon -135

Prices from 5Dimes.

Sunday, 11 August 2019

5Dimes' SummerSlam Odds For Sunday Night (Updated 11:30PM BST)

For the next few hours, I'll post frequent updates about the 5Dimes Sportsbook's WWE SummerSlam 2019 markets.

They'll start with all of the prices from my 9:00PM visit.

Brock Lesnar .vs. Seth Rollins
9:00PM: No change since 4PM after Brock Lesnar was moved to -230 from -165 and Seth Rollins was pushed to +170 from +125.

11:30PM: Brock Lesnar is now a -290 favourite. Seth Rollins is up to +210.

Kofi Kingston .vs. Randy Orton
9:00PM: Another market still showing the same prices as 4PM. Kofi Kingston is -210 to Randy Orton's +160.

10:00PM: Kofi Kingston has now been moved down to -230. A win for Randy Orton is up from +!60 to +170.

Kevin Owens .vs. Shane McMahon
9:00PM: Kevin Owens is still a -510 favourite. A win for Shane McMahon will currently pay out at odds of +340.

11:30PM: Shane McMahon's odds have slipped from +340 into +260. Kevin Owens remains a favourite, but is now at -380 from -510.

Finn Balor .vs. Bray Wyatt
9:00PM: Wyatt's odds fell from -1,500 into -1,580 before 8:30PM and have remained at this number for now. Balor went up to +800 from +750.

11:00PM: Bray Wyatt has dropped into -2,000 while Balor has moved to +1,000.

11:30PM: Wyatt has moved in once more. He's -2,210 now. Finn Balor has risen to +1,070.

AJ Styles .vs. Ricochet
9:00PM: Ricochet's price declined from +160 into +157 before 6:00PM and is now down to +150. AJ's price has moved up from the -210 at 4PM and is now -190.

11:30PM: Ricochet is now down to +120 from +150. A win for AJ Styles has now been placed at -160 which is up from -190.

Goldberg .vs. Dolph Ziggler
9:00PM: Goldberg has been cut from -475 into -675 following Dolph Ziggler's price dropping today. Ziggler was +325 after falling from +450 at around 6PM, but is now at +425.

11:00PM: Goldberg is now down to -780 while Ziggler has moved to +460

Becky Lynch .vs. Natalya
9:00PM: Becky Lynch is still a -430 fave. Natalya is +310.

10:00PM: Becky Lynch is now a -445 favourite. Natalua is up to +315.

Bayley .vs. Ember Moon
9:00PM: Ember Moon's price to win the Smackdown Women's Championship match was cut from +175 to +125 sometime before 6PM. The titleholder is now a -165 fave, which is slightly up from the -245 Bayley bettors would have found her at 4PM.

11:00PM: Ember Moon has fallen into -135 from +125. Bayley has risen to -105 from -165.

Charlotte Flair .vs. Trish Stratus
9:00PM: Charlotte Flair went from -380 to -530 favourite between 4PM and 6PM. She remains at this price. Trish Stratus is still at the +350 she was moved to from +260 after Flair moved in.

10:00PM: Trish Stratus' price has moved down from +350 to +340. Charlotte is now at -510 from -530.

11:00PM: Trish Stratus is now down to +300. A win for Flair has moved up from -510 to -420.

Closed Markets

Drew Gulak .vs. Oney Lorcan
9:00PM: Drew Gulak was moved from -320 to -335 before 6PM and remains at this number. A win for Oney Lorcan is +245, which is slightly up from the +240 he was at 4PM.

10:00PM: This match will be on the Kick Off. Gulak is now down to -380 and Lorcan is up to +260.

11:10PM: Drew Gulak has won as a -380 favourite.

Odds from 5Dimes.

Kambi Publishes Markets For 2 New SummerSlam Bouts

The oddsmakers from Kambi are the latest to release betting markets for the two matches that have been added to tonight's SummerSlam card.

On the pre-show, Apollo Crews will meet Buddy Murphy. The former has been installed as a 2/1 outsider while Murrphy is 1/3.

Another match on the Kick Off has The IIconics attempt to regain the WWE Women's Tag Team Championship against Alexa Bliss and Nikki Cross. The challengers are 7/2 outsiders while Bliss and Cross are 2/13 faves.

Wrestling Observer star ratings Over/Under lines have been made for both matches. The Crews .vs. Murphy bout has a line of 2 stars while the women's tag bout is set at one.

William Hill Releases New SummerSlam Match Markets

William Hill has published markets for the late additions to tonight's SummerSlam card.

The new bouts will take place on the Kick Off, so you have a short time to get your bets in.

WWE Women's Tag Team Champions, Alexa Bliss and Nikki Cross are 1/5 favourites to defeat the former titleholders - The IIconics (10/3).

In the other match, Apollo Crews will take on Buddy Murphy. The former has been installed at 9/4 while a win for Murphy will pay out at 1/3.

WWE has also announced that the Cruiserweight Championship match will be the third bout to take place on the pre-show.

Markets For G1 Climax 29 Final Published

The Kambi oddsmakers have opened a few books on tomorrow's G1 Climax final between Kota Ibushi and Jay White.

Ibushi has been installed as a 13/20 favourite to go over in the match and be crowned this year's winner. A win for the B Block victor - Jay White - has been priced 11/10.

An Over/Under Wrestling Observer star ratings market has also been released for the bout with the line set at four-and-three-quarters.

Those who like betting on 'Match Duration' can also find an Over/Under for the bout with Kambi giving the punters the opportunity to bet on the match going above or below twenty-seven minutes.

For what it's worth, I've backed the 'Over' at EVS.

5Dimes' SummerSlam 2019 Odds As Of 6PM BST

Here are some notes from my 6PM BST visit to 5Dimes' SummerSlam markets.

  • Charlotte Flair is now a -530 favourite to beat Trish Stratus. The most recent price, from 4PM BST, had her at -380. Stratus is now at +350 from +260
  • Drew Gulak was -320 to successfully retain the Cruiserweight Championship, but is now down to -335. A win for Oney Lorcan will now pay out at +245, which is up from +240
  • Dolph Ziggler's odds have once again came in. He's now at +325 to beat Bill Goldberg. He was a +450 underdog earlier after spending a few day at +600 after falling from +1,150. A win for Goldberg is now priced at -475. The most recent price was -750
  • Ricochet was a +160 outsider to win the US Championship match in my previous update. He is now down to +157. A win for AJ Styles is now -200 from -210
  • Bray Wyatt is now a -1,580 fave to beat Finn Balor. He had been -1,500 since Thursday. A win for Balor is now offered at +750, which is up from +700
  • The remaining markets are still showing the same pricing as the 4PM Update

5Dimes' SummerSlam 2019 Odds For Early Sunday Evening

The last two posts in which I wrote about 5Dimes' WWE SummerSlam 2019 markets were lacking in updates as all of the prices had stalled. This is no longer the case. I've just had a 4PM BST look through the sportsbook's prices for tonight and noticed that all have been adjusted.

In this post, I'll go through each market and point out how they've been adjusted.

Charlotte Flair .vs. Trish Stratus
Charlotte Flair had been a -350 favourite before this afternoon. She is now at -380. With her price moving in, the oddsmakers have pushed Trish Stratus out to +260 from +250.

Bayley .vs. Ember Moon
Bayley was at -230, but has now slid down to -245. Her challenger, Ember Moon, has increased to +175 from +170.

Becky Lynch .vs. Natalya
The WWE Raw Women's Champion's role as a favourite has moved in from -320 to -430. A win for Natalya is now being offered at +310. This is up from +240.

Drew Gulak .vs. Oney Lorcan
The Cruiserweight Championship market has the titleholder now down to -320 from -290. A win for Lorcan will pay out at +240, which is up from the previous +210.

Goldberg .vs. Dolph Ziggler
Here's how the Goldberg .vs. Ziggler market has changed.


Date/Time
Goldberg
Dolph Ziggler
7/8 10:30AM
-1,350
+650
7/8 11:00PM
-2,450
+1,150
8/8 10:00AM
-2,000
+1,000
8/8 11:00PM
-1,200
+600
11/8 4:00PM
-750
+450

Dolph Ziggler's odds have fallen yet again. This time he's at +450. He had stalled at +600 for the past few days after being lowered from +1,100.
Goldberg remains a favourite, but his price has moved up from -1,200 to -750.

AJ Styles .vs. Ricochet
Ricochet's odds to win the US Championship match have moved in from +185 to +160. As a result, a winning wager on AJ Styles will now pay out at -210. This is up from -265.

Bray Wyatt .vs. Finn Balor
Bray Wyatt had been a -1,500 favourite since moving up from -1,700 on Thursday. He is now down to -1,580. Finn Balor is now +750. He was +700 recently.

Kevin Owens .vs. Shane McMahon
Kevin Owens' price to win against Shane McMahon is now down from -425 to -510. McMahon is now at +340 from +305.

Kofi Kingston .vs. Randy Orton
Randy Orton's price is now down to +160. It was recently at +175. Kofi Kingston remains a favourite to successfully retain the WWE Championship, but his price has drifted from -245 to -210.

Brock Lesnar .vs. Seth Rollins
The WWE Universal Champion is now a -230 favourite. He had spent over a day at -165. Seth Rollins is now at +170 after moving out from +125.

Prices correct as of 4PM BST. The latest can be found on The 5Dimes Website.


Jay White Wins B Block In G1 Climax 29

Jay White has won the B Block of this year's NJPW G1 Climax tournament. 

The victory was confirmed earlier today when White defeated Tetsuya Naito in the main event of night eighteen. Going into the match, other potential B Block champions in Jon Moxley and Hirooki Goto became ineligible after losing their tournament bouts. This left the winner of White and Naito to book their place in tomorrow's final.

Today's main eventers were joint 6/4 favourites to win the block when a 'B Block Winner' market was published in June. White had a poor start to the tourney after losing his first three bouts and - as a result - his odds to win the block began to rise. The highest price customers could have found the eventual winner was 19/2 - this would have been when he was starting to rally up the points to climb up into top spot.

As you can see below, Naito closed as a 4/6 favourite to win the block. White was in second at 7/5 after falling into that price yesterday afternoon.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - B Block Winner

White will now compete for the G1 Climax trophy and the WrestleKingdom IWGP Heavyweight Championship title shot against Kota Ibushi on tomorrow's card.

A market in which customers could wager on the two finalists has been settled with 'Kota Ibushi .vs. Jay White' as the winning selection. When it was last made available, the selection was 13/5. However, customers could have found it at a far higher 20/1 in late-July. This would have coincided with A Block's Kazuchika Okada on a great run where it looked like he would win the block without picking up a loss and White was reeling after losing his first three matches and needed to win the remaining bouts on his schedule to close out as the B Block champion.

G1 Climax 29 Betting - Finalists

As I'm sure those who have been following my G1 posts are aware, I had a strong feeling that White was going to win the block, so I hope some of you were able to place bets on the outcome. It now all rests on tomorrow's final where I have Ibushi winning and White being the 'Losing Finalist'.

G1 Climax 29 Betting: Night 18

G1 Climax 29 - Night 18 Matches

The final round of block matches in this year's edition of the NJPW G1 Climax tournament should be getting underway in a little under an hour, so I thought I would show you the prices for the three matches that Kambi is accepting wagers on.

The third bout of tournament matches will see Jon Moxley and Juice Robinson compete. Moxley is one of the four wrestlers tied in first place of B Block with ten points. He would need a win to have any chance of booking his place into tomorrow's final.

As I wrote back when the match markets were first installed, I feel Juice Robinson could play spoiler here. My gut instinct kicked in back in June when both wrestlers were available at 17/20.  As you'll see in the table below, the weeks of back-and-forth betting has resulted in Robinson being a 1/5 favourite. A decision in favour of Moxley is now being offered at 3/1.

Date/Time
Robinson
Moxley
26/6 7:40PM
17/20
17/20
27/6 8:00PM
3/4
19/20
2/7 11:00PM
7/10
EVS
9/7 4:00PM
17/20
17/20
12/7 8:30AM
8/13
23/20
13/7 7:00PM
11/20
5/4
15/7 9:00AM
13/25
13/10
16/7 8:30PM
1/2
7/5
26/7 2:00PM
11/25
8/5
28/7 4:30PM
4/11
9/5
29/7 5:00PM
1/3
2/1
30/7 2:00PM
2/7
9/4
4/8 10:00PM
11/50
11/4
9/8 5:00PM
1/6
13/4
10/8 10:30AM
1/5
3/1
11/8 9:30AM
"
"

Match number four is between Hirooki Goto and Shingo Takagi with Goto another one of the four with ten points at the top of the table.

The market for this match was first published a couple of days ago with Goto an 11/25 favourite, but I once again went into my 'spoiler' mindset and backed Takagi at the 8/5.

Since then, it seems others are also of the opinion that Shingo could be a spoiler as he has moved into favouritism. He currently rests at 1/2 while Goto has moved up to 7/5.


Date/Time
Goto
Takagi
9/8 5:00PM
11/25
8/5
10/8 9:00AM
17/20
17/20
10/8 10:30AM
5/4
11/20
10/8 8:00PM
7/5
1/2
11/8 9:30AM
"
"

The main event of the evening will be a clash between the two remaining ten-point wrestlers - Tetsuya Naito and Jay White.

When the market was first installed back in June, the bookies had White as a 4/5 favourite. Naito was at 9/10. As it stands right now, it's Naito who is favoured as he's 8/13 to White's 23/20.


Date/Time
Naito
White
26/6 7:40PM
9/10
4/5
13/7 7:00PM
17/20
17/20
15/7 9:00AM
7/10
EVS
16/7 8:30PM
13/20
11/10
20/7 4:00PM
13/25
13/10
26/7 2:00PM
4/9
6/4
28/7 4:30PM
13/20
11/10
2/8 8:30PM
11/20
5/4
4/8 10:00PM
7/10
EVS
10/8 9:00AM
8/13
23/20

As a fan, I would like Naito to win this match and head into tomorrow's final, but - and as I have written a fair bit recently - I have a feeling White will win this match and face Kota Ibushi.

One reason why I believe that Ibushi .vs. White could be the final is because we've seen Naito and Ibushi wrestle a few times already this year. 

If it is White's block, I think it's worth pointing out the tiebreakers. Moxley can afford to win the Robinson match but Goto would have to draw or lose his because White holds a tiebreak win over Moxley but not Goto.

For Naito to secure the block, he would need Moxley to draw or lose but it wouldn't matter about Goto's result as Naito holds a win over him from night six.