Thursday, 15 November 2018

Survivor Series Odds Notes For Thursday Night

It has been a few hours since I published a post with the 5Dimes Sportsbook's lines for this Sunday's WWE Survivor Series PPV. I've taken another look through them to see whether there have been any adjustments made. Here's what I've noticed

  • No change in the markets for Brock Lesnar (-300) .vs. Daniel Bryan (+220), AOP (-230) .vs. The Bar (+170) and Team Raw Tag Teams (+220) .vs. Team Smackdown Tag Teams (-300)
  • Buddy Murphy's odds to successfully retain the WWE Cruiserweight Championship have moved in from -190 into -210 while his opponent, Mustafa Ali, is up to +160 from +150
  • Team Smackdown Women have shortened from -150 into -230. Their opponents have moved up to +170 from +110
  • Team Raw Men have lowered from -110 into -170. The Smackdown team is now +130 - up from -130
  • Shinsuke Nakamura has decreased from -155 into -185 while Seth Rollins has moved up to +145 from +115
  • Cbarlotte Flair has dropped from +550 into +290. Ronda Rousey has now been moved to -410, which is up from -1,050

Odds from 5Dimes.

5Dimes Releases New Survivor Series Markets

The 5Dimes Sportsbook has taken off the Ronda Rousey .vs. Becky Lynch match market from its Survivor Series book and published lines for the full card that's scheduled for Sunday.

The replacement of the Rousey .vs. Lynch match has Rousey as a -1,050 favourite over Charlotte Flair. A successful wager on Flair will pay out at odds of +550.

Team Raw Men have been installed at -110 to Team Smackdown's -130.

Smackdown's Women team are -150 favourites to topple their Raw counters (+110). Smackdown's tag teams are -300 faves to overcome Raw's lineup (+220).

Seth Rollins is a +115 underdog for his bout with Shinsuke Nakamura (-155).

Raw's Tag Champions - The AOP - are the favourites to beat Smackdown's champs - The Bar. AOP are -230 while their opponents are +170.

New WWE Champion, Daniel Bryan, is a +220 outsider for his match with Brock Lesnar. A decision in favour of the Universal Champion will pay out at -300.

A match that isn't part of the Raw .vs. Smackdown storyline is the one for the Cruiserweight Championship. Buddy Murphy is -190 to Mustafa Ali's +150.

Prices correct as of 4:40PM GMT.

Lynch .vs. Rousey Reportedly Set For Mania 35

This week's issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter came out today and its lead story is about the changes that have been made to the Survivor Series card within the past few days.

The most eye-catching part of the article notes that the Becky Lynch versus Ronda Rousey match - which was scheduled to take place this Sunday, but was pulled from the Survivor Series lineup due to Becky Lynch's broken nose and concussion - is now set to take place at WrestleMania 35.

Dave Meltzer - editor of the Observer -  mentions that it could possibly be the main event. In the very least, it'll be one of the main attractions of next year's show.

The selection for a Becky Lynch .vs. Ronda Rousey match to main event Mania is, as of the time of writing, a joint-favourite next to The Rock versus Brock Lesnar (I wrote the other day that I strongly disbelieve this match is happening) in a Sky Bet special where customers can place wagers on who will compete in the final match of the April show.

After Tuesday and especially seeing the fallout on social media yesterday, I had a feeling that Becky Lynch could end up in the match. However, I thought at the time that it was worth a gamble on a triple threat with Charlotte Flair, Ronda Rousey and Lynch. I didn't think it would result in Charlotte being removed from the WrestleMania equation entirely, but today's story puts paid to that idea. 

The singles match - with Becky up against Ronda - is 4/1. For what it's worth - and this is obviously going against today's report  -  the scenario where all three ladies are in the WrestleMania 35 main event is 12/1,

For the aforementioned market, the match must be the final one of the night. The alternative would be to look at the women's Royal Rumbler winner market.

To get to Lynch versus Rousey in a singles match, one of the ladies might have to end up winning the women's Royal Rumble. As of the time of writing, Rousey is 18/1 (Sky Bet) and Lynch, who I'd say is the most likely of the two, is 9/2 (Betway).

Wednesday, 14 November 2018

BetOnline's Survivor Series Markets

Here are the WWE Survivor Series betting markets that are available from BetOnline. 

BetOnline's WWE Survivor Series 2018 Betting Odds

As you can see, the sportsbook is accepting wagers on all of the matches that are now confirmed for Sunday's PPV.

Prices correct as of 10:50PM GMT today. The markets can be found under 'Game Props' on the sportsbook's menu.

Daniel Bryan's Title Win Closes A Year-Old Betting Market

Last night's WWE Championship loss by AJ Styles means that a betting market, that had been available to Kambi customers on-and-off for almost a year, will now be closed.

Next WWE Champion After AJ Styles
Click on image to expand

Its winner will be the new champion, Daniel Bryan, who - when the market was first published on November 17th 2017 - was retired from ring action.

It was only in May when Bryan found his way into the market. At the time he was installed, the bookies were offering 3/1 to be AJ Styles' successor.

The image above is of all of the selections and how their prices fluctuated over the near year that it was available. As you can see, Bryan closed as a 4/5 favourite. This was mainly because he was, at that time, set to face Styles for the WWE Championship match at Crown Jewel after beating The Miz in a number one contender match at Super Show-Down five days earlier.

Next WWE Champion After AJ Styles - Daniel Bryan's Odds
How Daniel Bryan's Odds Changed in Kambi's WWE Champion After AJ Styles Market


A second market where customers could place wagers on the time-frame Styles dropped the title was also published on November 17th of last year. However, this closed following WrestleMania with the selection 'First Day After WrestleMania 34 Or Later' being settled as the winner at a closing 3/1.

The eventual winner had opened at 6s when the full market was published close to a year ago.

Markets For New Survivor Series Matches From Sky Bet

Sky Bet published markets for the two replacement matches that have been added to the WWE Survivor Series card.

I first came across the market a little over an hour ago. The prices are unchanged.

Ronda Rousey is a 1/16 favourite to overcome her new opponent in Charlotte Flair. A successful wager on Flair will pay out at 7s.

New WWE Champion, Daniel Bryan, is 2/1 to get a decision over Universal Champ, Brock Lesnar (4/11).

Closing Odds For S2 E9 Of WWE Mixed Match Challenge

The following post was meant to have been published last night, but encountered a problem. I'm publishing it for those who would like to keep record of the Mixed Match Challenge Season 2 weekly prices.

* * *

Betting on tonight's Mixed Match Challenge matches has now closed.

Kambi shut down its final markets for the bouts at 5PM GMT today after removing the two for the Raw bracket yesterday.

Ember Moon and Braun Strowman closed as 4/9 favourites to beat Mickie James and Bobby Lashley. The faves had started off at 3/4 when the market was first installed on Friday.


Date/Time
Moon and Strowman
James and Lashley
9/11 5:00PM
3/4
19/20
10/11 11:00AM
11/20
13/10
11/11 2:30PM
4/9
6/4


James and Lashley were 6/4 when the market was taken down. They had started off at 19/20.

The 'Gender of Decision' market - where customers can place bets on who the legal participants in the match are when the fall is decided - saw the punters back Ember Moon and Mickie James as the 'Female' selection dropped to 2/5 from 11/20.


Date/Time
Male
Female
9/11 5:00PM
5/4
11/20
11/11 2:30PM
7/4
2/5


'Male' was the punters' pick in the gender market for the Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles versus Asuka and The Miz match.

Date/Time
Male
Female
9/11 5:00PM
9/10
4/5
11/11 2:30PM
7/10
EVS

As you can see, the selection fell from 9/10 into 7/10 by Sunday afternoon. It remained at this price right up to closure.

The march winner market kicked off with customers seemingly backing Asuka and The Miz and their selection dipped from EVS into 9/10. However, it was their opponents who saw the latter part of the action as Flair and Styles were slashed into 1/3 sometime between yesterday and today.


Date/Time
Flair and Styles
Asuka and The Miz
9/11 5:00PM
7/10
EVS
10/11 11:00AM
4/5
9/10
11/11 2:30PM
13/20
11/10
12/11 1:30PM
1/3
2/1


Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Asuka And The Miz Out To 2/1 In MMC Betting

In a post published late last week, I wrote that I was going to stop placing wagers on Kambi's WWE Mixed Match Challenge markets because I felt that WWE is making up the rules of its tournament and pointed out that - other than Asuka and The Miz's undefeated streak that has extended beyond both seasons - tonight's matches have nothing at stake as all four will qualify into the playoffs.

I visited the website a few minutes ago to note down the latest prices and saw that the bookmakers had shortened Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles from 13/20 into 1/3. This has obviously resulted in their opponent moving out.

Asuka and Miz are now at 2/1 from 11/10.

As I mentioned last week, the only thing at stake tonight is Team Awe-Ska's streak, so I thought 2/1 on it to continue was worth a punt.

I really do think Asuka and The Miz should represent Smackdown in the final considering they were the previous winners. I also believe they should remain undefeated until at least the final, so the 2/1 was too good to turn down.

With that said, my Mixed Match Challenge wagers have been shambolic so we'll have to see if it's my streak that continues beyond tonight

Newly-Acquired Qualms

I've just finished watching last night's episode of WWE Raw and I'm now questioning my theory that Braun Strowman will win the 2019 Royal Rumble to get his rematch for the Universal Championship against Brock Lesnar.

If you've been following along, you're sure to be aware that - following Crown Jewel, when Strowman lost to Brock Lesnar - I felt that they would meet again at WrestleMania 35. 

The result from the Saudi show made me move Strowman up to the top of my list of potential winners of the January battle royal. Now - after watching how last night's Raw played out - I admit there is a question mark beside his name.

Not just a question mark. There are many.

????

Strowman is absolutely getting a rematch. However, on last night's show, Stephanie McMahon told the Monster Among Men that he would have to lead Team Raw to victory at the Survivor Series before his request is granted. On top of that, Stephanie told Strowman that he couldn't touch Raw's General Manager - Baron Corbin - until after Sunday.

Knowing that Corbin versus Strowman is one of the adjusted plans that was recently sent out to the San Jose's SAP Center has me wondering whether Strowman will do what he has bargained with Stephanie: get the win on Sunday, meet Corbin at TLC on December 16th and then challenge Lesnar for the Universal Championship at the Royal Rumble in January.

I suppose they could go with Corbin costing Strowman this Sunday in an attempt to avoid getting those hands, but it isn't looking as good in my mind as it has for the days post-Crown Jewel.

Listening to this morning's edition of Wrestling Observer Radio hasn't helped alleviate my newly-acquired qualms.

Dave Meltzer mentioned that it was indicated to him that Brock Lesnar versus Braun Strowman is not a plan for WrestleMania 35.

This must have been told to the editor after the most recent issue of the Observer was published because - in the part where he wrote about Lesnar's contract status - Meltzer states that he wasn't completely sure whether Brock Lesnar would wrestle on the Royal Rumble card other than to state that it was possible seeing as it's a stadium show. He did write that the company had a planned match for Lesnar at Mania, but today's update might have put paid to most of the hope I had that it'll be Strowman.

It's sure going to be interesting to see how Sunday plays out now...

Monday, 12 November 2018

MMC Prize Announced And Latest Betting Update

WWE has announced that the winners of this season's Mixed Match Challenge will get the number thirty spots in their respective Royal Rumble matches.

This is an interesting development as it should finally write off AJ Styles and Charlotte Flair. Or - in the very least - cast further doubt on their chance of walking away as season two winners.

With the last match taking place on the Tables, Ladders and Chairs card - and with Styles still WWE Champion - I have been touting that Asuka and The Miz are the likely winners of Smackdown's side of the tournament.

Tonight's news has made me even more confident that Team Awe-Ska will represent Smackdown in the final.

As for the Raw side - all I can say is my idea from yesterday, where I have Braun Strowman winning the Royal Rumble from number one spot, might have been a premature Sky Bet request.

With that said, Bayley and Finn Balor - now that they've made the playoffs - would be my pick to represent Raw in the final. What's working in my favour is the fact that Strowman will likely have an even bigger role coming out of the Survivor Series.

Kambi's market for Raw's side of the tournament closed at 5PM BST today.

Ember Moon and Braun Strowman closed as 4/9 favourites over Mickie James and Bobby Lashley (6/4).


Date/Time
Moon and Strowman
James and Lashley
9/11 5:00PM
3/4
19/20
10/11 11:00AM
11/20
13/10
11/11 2:30PM
4/9
6/4

Betting on the 'Gender of Decision' closed with the 'Female' selection having been slashed from 11/20 into 2/5.


Date/Time
Male
Female
9/11 5:00PM
5/4
11/20
11/11 2:30PM
7/4
2/5

The markets for Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles .vs. Asuka and The Miz remain open as of the time of writing.

Date/Time
Flair and Styles
Asuka and The Miz
9/11 5:00PM
7/10
EVS
10/11 11:00AM
4/5
9/10
11/11 2:30PM
13/20
11/10

Initially, the odds for Asuka and The Miz were cut in the first day from even money into 9/10. However, when I checked in this afternoon, I noticed that customers had backed Flair and Styles from 4/5 into 13/20. As a result, Asuka and The Miz have drifted out tto 11/10.

The Gender of Decision proposition market has seen customers back the males. 

Date/Time
Male
Female
9/11 5:00PM
9/10
4/5
11/11 2:30PM
7/10
EVS

It has moved in from 9/10 into 7/10. 

Sunday, 11 November 2018

A Strowman Rumble/Mania Special

In the most recent post, I mentioned that I currently have Braun Strowman as my number one pick to win the 2019 Royal Rumble. I thought I'd publish a short note about a RequestABet selection that I asked Sky Bet to put on its WrestleMania 35 specials.

As Strowman is my pick to win the Rumble, and due to him currently having trouble from Raw General Manager - Baron Corbin, I couldn't help but think that - come the Royal Rumble - the GM might stack the deck against Strowman by having his nemesis enter January's battle royal from the number one spot.

On top of Strowman winning as the first entrant, I also added in 'and beat Brock Lesnar for the Universal Title at WrestleMania 35'.

The selection has been added at 50/1.

There have been plenty of new selections added to the website this weekend. You can view all markets, new and old, by clicking on the image below.

One of the recent additions is 'Brock Lesnar to remain Universal Champion until WM35 and lose the title at the event'. This also plays into my scenario. It obviously would apply to any other scenario that could happen should my pick be wrong and somebody other than Strowman defeats Lesnar for the title at Mania. I backed it when it was 5/1 yesterday. It's currently 4/1.

Sky Bet - WrestleMania 35 RequestABet For November 11th 2018

2 Lesnar Specials From Kambi

With Brock Lesnar now holding the WWE Universal Championship, and rumoured to be signed up to wrestle at WrestleMania 35, the oddsmakers from Kambi published two new Lesnar markets to their WWE/Pro Wrestling section.

The new markets were released earlier this week. The first is a special where clients can place wagers on whoever succeeds Lesnar for his championship. The second is in the WrestleMania 35 section where clients can wager on who they believe will oppose Lesnar in early April.

Unsurprisingly, Braun Strowman is a 1/2 favourite to become the WWE Universal Champion following Lesnar. After seeing Lesnar win the title - the way he did - from Strowman at Crown Jewel it made me confident that it was a setup for Strowman to get his revenge at a later point.

I'll get into The Rock at 2/1 later.

Drew McIntyre at 3/1 kind of makes sense considering there was a consensus out there that believed he would beat Strowman for the title had Strowman left Saudi Arabia with the title. As it stands right now - a heel McIntyre chasing a heel Lesnar for the title going into Mania does not make sense to me, however.

Seth Rollins - who called out Lesnar as a way to stir up the fan's hatred toward the Universal Champion not being around on Monday's episode of Raw - is 6/1.

I read in passing this week that Bobby Lashley still believes that he'll get to wrestle Lesnar sometime in the future. He's 7/1.

All of the selections, along with their odds from Tuesday, can be found below. The prices are unchanged from there.

Next WWE Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar

I stated that I would write a bit about The Rock as a second-favourite in the 'Universal Champion After Brock Lesnar' market because there's kind of an overlap as he is second place in the special where customers can place wagers on The Beast's Mania opponent.

Brock Lesnar's WrestleMania 35 Opponent Betting

As you can see, The Rock is priced next to Drew McIntyre. Both are at 5/2. 

Earlier this week, I read an article from a person who writes a lot of fake news stories in the quest for attention.. His story claims that WWE wants Dwayne Johnson to come in for Mania, beat Lesnar for the title and then drop it back to him in Saudi Arabia.

This would obviously mean Rock would have to come in for the Royal Rumble or Elimination Chamber as well, but let's play on..

The writer's fantasy story didn't factor in that Dwayne Johnson's agents - Endeavor - exited a huge investment deal with Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Jamal Khashoggi murder.

If John Cena's people advised him against going, I am certain Johnson's team would. Especially as Rocky was recently criticised for endorsing Mohammad bin Salman after the two met earlier this year. 

A look at Dwayne Johnson's IMDB page will also show a schedule that makes performing in ONE match doubtful. Let alone two. 

Or more.

In my opinion, Braun Strowman is the right favourite to be Lesnar's WrestleMania dance partner.

Lesnar's title victory at Crown Jewel came across to me like a setup for a rematch. If I could liken it to a recent match I could pull from memory - it reminded me of Goldberg going over Lesnar at the Survivor Series. As we now know, this set up the latter's comeback win months later at WrestleMania 33. 

I haven't bet on Strowman to win this market, but - as soon as he lost at Crown Jewel - I backed the Monster Among Men to win the Royal Rumble with Sky Bet and Betway.

Saturday, 10 November 2018

Prices Changed In Kambi's MMC Match Markets

Both of Kambi's match markets for next week's episode of WWE Mixed Match Challenge have been altered since I wrote about them yesterday.

In the market for Ember Moon and Braun Strowman versus Mickie James and Bobby Lashley, the price for Moon and Strowman has been snipped from 3/4 into 11/20. Therefore, their opponents have drifted out.

A winning bet on James and Lashley will now pay out at 13/10. They were 19/20 yesterday.

In the Smackdown side of the tournament, Asuka and The Miz have moved from EVS into 9/10 while Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles have increased to 4/5 from 7/10.

Friday, 9 November 2018

Mixed Match Challenge S2 E9 Odds And A Rant

Next week's round of Mixed Match Challenge matches will see 3-0 teams going up against one another when Charlotte Flair and AJ Styles meet Asuka and The Miz in the Smackdown bracket and then - over on the red brand - Ember Moon and Braun Strowman are set to tangle with Mickie James and Bobby Lashley.

The Kambi oddsmakers have published markets for both of the bouts. Before I get to them, I want to announce that I'm done with this tournament and will not bet on any more of the matches.

All I plan to do from now is write about the odds and nothing more because it's quite clear that WWE is making this up as its going on.

It was revealed a few days ago that Bayley and Finn Balor have secured a playoff spot following their loss against James and Lashley. The team are 2-2 and below the aforementioned duos that are 3-0, which is fair enough. What made the announcement ridiculous is the fact that Smackdown's bracketing also has two 3-0 teams (Flair/Styles and Asuka/Miz) and one 2-2 team in Jimmy Uso and Naomi. If Bayley and Balor have qualified, why hasn't the 2-2 team in the other bracket?

Mixed Match Challenge Standings Raw
Mixed Match Challenge - Raw Bracket

Mixed Match Challenge Standings Smackdown
Mixed Match Challenge - Smackdown Bracket

By announcing that Team B 'n' B has made it to the playoffs, WWE has made the matches for the upcoming episode meaningless in a way. All are guaranteed a spot in the next stage now, so there's nothing at stake. And that's a reason why I am no longer comfortable betting and sharing my picks for this show (not that they were any good!).

Strike that - I guess the only thing at stake is Asuka and Miz's undefeated streak. But that's all.

Now that my rant is over, here are the odds for the match winners:

Asuka/Miz 7/10
Flair/ Styles EVS

Moon/Strowman 3/4
James/Lashley 19/20

As per usual, the oddsmakers have also installed markets where clients can bet on the gender that is legally in the ring when the match is won. 'Female' is a 4/5 favourite in the market for the Smackdown side of the tournament ('Male' is 9/10). Over in the Raw match, a decision with Mickie James and Ember Moon involved will pay out at 11/20 while a decision involving the men is 5/4.

Sky Bet's NXT TakeOver: War Games 2018 Markets Published

Sky Bet has published markets for the four bouts that are confirmed for next weekend's NXT TakeOver show.

The event will see The Undisputed Era head back into the War Games cage. This time, the faction are set to meet the team made up of Pete Dunne, Ricochet and War Raiders.

The Undisputed Era are 2/7 faves while their opponents are 5/2.

The NXT Championship wiil also be defended when Tommaso Ciampa meets his challenger, The Velveteen Dream.

A decision in favour of the titleholder is being offered at a short 1/8, a win for Dream will pay out at 9/2.

Kairi Sane will get the opportunity to try and reclaim the NXT Women's Championship against Shayna Baszler in a best out of three falls match. Baszler is a 1/3 favourite and the former champ is 9/4.

Finally, the fourth match scheduled for the event will see the Aleister Black (4/7) take on Johnny Gargano (5/4) to avenge the attack that took place ahead of  NXT TakeOver: Brooklyn IV - a story that was created when Black was injured for the title match and has played out as a whodunit on NXT TV right up until Gargano was unmasked as the culprit.