We're more than a day away from finding out who this year's Royal Rumble winners will be, so I thought I'd do my semi-annual post where I write about the bets I have going into the two battle royals.
This year is an unusual for my wagering. That's because, as I write this post on Friday morning (hours before tonight's Smackdown, I should add), I have only ONE bet on for this weekend.
It's a 4/1 (+400 US) wager on John Cena to win the men's Royal Rumble. The bet was struck in the latter part of 2024.
Regular visitors are sure to know that, over the years, John Cena and The Rock have always been the first two selections I seek whenever Royal Rumble outright markets are published. The former is one I have done the most because I have strongly believed WWE would go in the direction of Cena having a run to break the 'record' of sixteen world titles.
Quite a while back, I had a spirited debate with somebody in the comment section of a post here on the blog about Cena going for 17. The commenter was adamant WWE would not do the record chase story. It's more obvious now, in Cena's final year, the company will indeed write that narrative.
The elephant in the room with this idea, however, is the fact that Cena could fall at the Rumble and enter the last chance saloon - through an Elimination Chamber victory - in four weeks from tomorrow night.
At the time I placed my wager on Cena, I had discounted Cena .vs. Cody Rhodes because I felt Rhodes' WrestleMania opponent would be The Rock. My opinion at the time was Cena would go after the World Heavyweight Champion - Gunther.
As of right now, the reported potential WrestleMania matches have Cena challenging Rhodes and for Roman Reigns to wrestle CM Punk.
Which leads me to some out there ideas I have which contradicts those news reports. Some have been re-erupted after seeing CM Punk and Cody Rhodes having a promo together on Monday night.
In yesterday's post, I wrote about the BetOnline sample study which points to over half of the US favouring John Cena for the Rumble win. The next person liked by the US public, per the research, is CM Punk.
I keep being drawn into thinking what the favour Paul Heyman now owes CM Punk after the latter helped the Bloodline win at the Survivor Series will be. The conclusion I keep reaching to is the favour will result in Heyman delivering Punk one of the things he has clamoured for in his career as a professional wrestler - to main event WrestleMania.
There are a number ways to get there, but the one which I fantasy booked is for Roman Reigns to win the Royal Rumble, thus setting up a third consecutive WrestleMania contest between Reigns and Cody Rhodes - which would main event night two - but, here's the plot twist: Punk calls in the favour from his mentor forcing Heyman to have to honour his word and add Punk to the match.
I suppose a similar, yet also dissimilar, angle was done to add Shawn Michaels to the World Heavyweight Championship match at WrestleMania XX after Chris Benoit won the 2004 Royal Rumble and chose Triple H as his opponent. Michaels ended up adding his name to the contract. I envision Paul Heyman doing something along those lines. Minus a Superkick.
A triple threat would make a fresh match for the WrestleMania main event after having already seen singles contests between Reigns and Rhodes closing out the shows of 2023 and 2024.
It would be ironic considering one of Punk's gripes from his last run with WWE was the fact he (a) didn't main event WrestleMania and (b) was not added to the WrestleMania XXIX main event between The Rock and John Cena.
A Roman Reigns Rumble victory could then mean my initial guess of Gunther .vs. Cena would be in play.
But, like I've already stated, the reports have Reigns .vs. Punk in singles and Cody Rhodes defending the Undisputed WWE Championship against John Cena.
Another thing from Monday night was we - once again - saw Seth Rollins and Gunther in a promo. Last year, Gunther came out and vowed he would challenge Seth Rollins for the World Heavyweight Championship upon winning the 2024 Rumble. On the most recent episode of Raw, we witnessed a similar exchange to last year. This time, however, Gunther is the titleholder and Rollins is setting his sights on a Rumble win.
I do not rule Rollins out from winning tomorrow night. Neither do the bettors and sportsbooks because Rollins is currently a +175 second-favourite. That's a drop from the +1,400 BetOnline was offering back in November.
With only one bet, that means I have evidently given the women's Royal Rumble a miss this year.
For most of 2024, I envisioned Jade Cargill as a potential winner (and challenging Bianca Belair) but that has not panned out with Cargill currently written off TV and Belair holding the tag straps with Naomi (who replaced Cargill as co-holder).
Cargill's odds have moved out from +600 to +4,000 since December.
It has been reported that WWE is looking to have Rhea Ripley and Bianca Belair wrestle each other some time in the future. With Ripley holding the Women's World Championship, that news has evidently made Belair a potential Women's Royal Rumble winner. She is a +180 second-favourite with BetOnline. The earliest price I have Belair is at +350 (3rd December).
Charlotte Flair is odds-on. She is returning from injuries that have kept her out of action since 2023. As of this morning, a win for Flair will pay out at -200. That's a drop from the +275 customers could have picked her up at in December.
The obvious match for Flair is to challenge Tiffany Stratton for the WWE Women's Championship - a bout that has also been discussed in the writers' room.
So - to close: I have only ONE bet and that's a gamble on John Cena securing a WrestleMania title shot now rather than in doing so via the Elimination Chamber.
If not Cena, I would like Roman Reigns as it would mean the scenario leading to a triple threat main event with Cody Rhodes defending against CM Punk and Reigns could turn into a possibility.
As for the women's Rumble - I think the safe option would be to predict Charlotte Flair or Bianca Belair although I'd enjoy the bragging rights I'd garner from my friends if Jade Cargill won it.
