Monday 7 April 2014

The Undertaker & Brock Lesnar In The Days And Hours Before The End Of The Streak

We all now know that The Undertaker lost to Brock Lesnar at last night's WrestleMania pay-per-view. However, we could have known a few hours before the show.

I kept constant checks of the odds from the time they were first posted online at 5Dimes.com all the way through to just before the bell sounded to kick off their match.

The image below shows how far apart The Undertaker and Brock Lesnar were from the early stages of betting up to the night before WrestleMania XXX.

Click to expand

A look at how the betting went on WrestleMania Sunday below shows how close they were when the late money came in before the show.


Time in BST. Click to expand

I noticed a change in the betting on the bout. I even wrote about it in a post where I noted the differences in the prices of a number of match markets at the sportsbook.

Unfortunately, I had blinkered myself into believing that World Wrestling Entertainment would never have the streak end so I reasoned that the odds shifting had either something to do with underdog gamblers taking the number (it happens in regular sports betting) or the sportsbook had balanced action on both sides so set out new odds to attract more wagers on the fixture.

Hindsight proves my theories were incorrect. It was smart, inside money moving the price.

There really is no alternative excuse, in my opinion.

The question then has to be asked, why didn't Lesnar become a favourite like in similar scenarios where heavy underdogs became a favourite in the eleventh hour of betting?

It's quite simple.

When the odds started shortening for Lesnar, The Undertaker's price may have been more attractive to people who also didn't believe the streak would end. As the bettors placed their stakes on Undertaker, it started to move the two opponents out again ultimately forcing Taker to remain a favourite to win which - and as we know now - was not the plan.

In a few days, I'll take a look at what happened in the betting on the Bray Wyatt vs John Cena match.

3 comments:

  1. Let's just say i'm glad that Brock Lesnar won.....I placed my bets soon as undertaker odds dropped all they way to 1/6 from 1/200 on 5Dimes!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi guys. I got taken to the cleaners by the bookies due to Undertaker's loss because I had him placed in all my accumulators. Man, I didn't see that coming; my jaw hit the floor when Lesnar got the pin. I should have been more astute with regards to the conspicuous betting patterns last night. Nevermind- Im a good loser.. Nice work with the graphs and all the research, David!!!

    ReplyDelete

Thank you for reading this post. Please note: All comments are moderated and will be published or rejected at the blog owner’s discretion.

Summer 2020 Update:
Due to changes with the blogging platform (not getting notified of new comments), I have had to close the comment section. Until I find a remedy, you can reach out on Twitter (@WWELeaksDotOrg)

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.