Going Over Betfair's Rumble Participation Odds (Jan 16 Edition)

It has been nearly a fortnight since the Betfair Sportsbook released a 'To Participate in the Royal Rumble' betting market where customers are allowed to bet on certain wrestlers entering the battle royal. I have been asked to go through the list again, so will do so in this post.

The way I have tackled this is to put the wrestlers in groups ranging from 'No Chance' to 'Strong Chance'. I've recorded the earlier prices and have compared the numbers to what they are as of the time of publishing (Saturday afternoon) to indicate how the bookmaker is changing the price due to possible action.

No Chance

First, I'll start of with the 'No Chance' category. This one is simply the names I cannot see being a part of the match. The reasons for their presence in this group range from being retired, injured, being in WWE's bad books or potentially being an injury risk.

Edge, Mick Foley, William Regal, Shawn Michaels, Shane McMahon. Steve Austin, Christian, Seth Rollins, Sting, Billy Gunn, Scott Steiner, Tyson Kidd, Scott Hall, X-Pac and Ric Flair.

Hmmm

For want of a better title for the second group, I have named it 'Hmmm'. It's a bunch of names that I had to think slightly more than I did for 'No Chance'. To simplify it - they are names that are close to 'No Chance' but would not shock me if they show up on the night.

Alex Riley: He returned to the ring following injury. He's technically an NXT talent now, so I'm unsure whether he'll get the nod. His odds have fallen from 33/1 to 25/1. People are evidently backing him.

'Hacksaw' Jim Duggan: I have backed him for a laugh. I caught him when he was 50/1. He's 10/1 now. The reason behind punting on Duggan is mainly based on him being a former Rumble winner, they like mentioning that now and again. The main thing in the way of this is Duggan has been working for Global Force Wrestling as an ambassador or something. He's a long-shot but I felt he was worth it for a small stake bet at those odds. He might still be at 10s.

Vince McMahon: Another name I have bet on. He had been 100/1 but is now showing at 13/2 so there is definitely interest. It did take me a while to consider McMahon as being a possible entrant and by then I had him at 33/1 so people did jump on him before I did. I would not be surprised if he shows up as an entrant to try to stop Roman Reigns. I also would not be surprised if he's only used in a cheerleader role. Could go both ways.

Hornswoggle: He hasn't been seen since he was suspended. They might use him for a comedy spot, but I doubt it. His odds haven't changed from 13/2, so don't see any interest.

El Torito: Same as above minus the suspension detail.

Shinsuke Nakamura: I really should have Nakamura in the 'No Chance' section because I think the possibility of him appearing in the Royal Rumble is extremely slim. His NJPW contract isn't over until the start of next month. His name was added to the list when news of his imminent WWE arrival hit the headlines.

The Rock: Close to 'No Chance', but he did show up with little announcement for last year's show for an appearance. His odds have drifted from 3/1 to 10/3. If you're going to bet on him being in this match, not only are you punting against his tight movie schedule, you'll also be going up against an insurance issue that is in the way of him doing anything huge at WrestleMania. 

Daniel Bryan: Another name I cannot see being involved for a plethora of reasons. However, if he shows up I would not be shocked if he is used. He needs to be medically cleared first, though. Bryan is a latest addition to the market. He was not available when it first opened. He's currently priced at 5/2.

Road Dogg: 'Road Dogg' Jesse James is closer to the next group than he is to the 'No Chance'. This is due to him being a road agent for WWE so will certainly be at the show in some capacity. Getting the nod to appear in the match is another thing. He's 6/4. His odds haven't changed since they went up.

AJ Styles: Unlike Shinsuke Nakamura, AJ Styles is a free agent having left New Japan Pro Wrestling on January 5th. I checked out a story earlier today where he - in a roundabout way - denied he'll be at the Royal Rumble. What did they expect him to say? With that said, I do have him high in this group meaning he's far from 'No Chance' but not in the next bracket. He is certainly seeing action as his price has plummeted from 33/1 to 5/4.

Possible

This group is a list of names that are slightly higher than the 'Hmm' category but still far off from being names that I feel strongly about as being Rumble participants.

Finn Balor: If they want to kick off the Balor Club thing, then the Royal Rumble could be the most opportunistic time. The fans have forced Betfair.com to halve his price. He's now 2/1 to be an entrant. The obvious thing against this possibility is the fact he is still a major part of NXT. 

The Miz: The Miz has now been taken off the board. This means one thing - he has had interest. I think he's a toss-up to either go in or not make the cut. It's quite telling that he was not selected to be in the group of wrestlers that were out on the stage at the start of Raw this week. I'm confident that not all of the people in that segment will even be in the match, so there's still a possibility that Miz is in. Him not being selected in the pretend group of Rumble participants doesn't look good, though.

Sami Zayn: As with Finn Balor, Sami Zayn is on NXT. He suffered a shoulder injury in the mid-point of 2015 that saw him sidelined for most of the year before returning a month ago. Before going down, it was looking like he was about to be brought up to the main roster (on Breaking Ground, Zayn noted this but was not sure himself whether his appearance on Raw against John Cena was an official call-up or not). He has a built-in feud on a plate with Kevin Owens so it would be perfect for him to be an entrant here if Owens is one of the participants in the match. His price has drifted out since they were published. They opened 5/4 but are now 11/8.

Strong Chance

Four names appear in this group. Two have confirmed their entry into the match while two are in a good position to be featured.

Chris Jericho: Y2J's odds have been taken off the board now that he has officially been entered into the match. He was 5/2 when the market opened.

Mark Henry: Mark Henry was also 5/2 when the book opened and is now being offered at 1/100 following the release of  a WWE video where Henry has given the impression that this might be his final year in WWE. With the knowledge of the video being out there, I have forced myself to put him in this grouping. My reluctance to put him in this group is due to the video being online exclusive. I have seen angles and interviews done in the past that have never made their way to TV. I wouldn't bet on him at those odds now. So it doesn't matter if I am right or wrong here.

Adam Rose & Bo Dallas: I'm ranking these two together because they're now part of a stable called The Social Outcasts. I think it's a safe bet that the foursome will find their way into the Royal Rumble as the group is relatively new (ie it hasn't gotten old yet!). Dallas' odds opened at 10/11 but are now 1/3 while Adam Rose is now EVENS after being installed at 2/1.

The market can be found along with other WWE-themed betting opportunities in the 'Special Bets' section of the Betfair Sportsbook at Betfair.com.