Miz Money

It has been over eleven hours since I published yesterday's post upon noticing there were three noticeable shifts in the Extreme Rules 2016 markets at 5Dimes.com so here's a follow up.

In the previous 5Dimes post I noted the following:

• Rusev had been backed from -350 to -590
• Dean Ambrose from -455 to -650
• The Miz from +100 to -300

Concentrating on these three selections, the latest odds are:

Rusev still at -590

Dean Ambrose still priced -650

The Miz now down to -505

The market for the Fatal 4-Way match has been the one many are pointing to as potential evidence to prove that smart money has been placed. If I were to be forced to go one way or another I would mildly state that it had. Emphasis on the word 'mild'. I am reluctant to be fully on board because I need to see a lot more in order to run with.

Firstly, I need to see the moves across more than just three matches to have the confidence to point to smart money having been placed. I have been running WWELeaks.org for near to three years and know that there are a lot of people who read the blog who come across on PPV weekends just to see if smart money has landed. I don't want to mislead them if I am not 100% convinced myself. There has been exception to this rule lately and this is the knowledge that the past two PPVs have seen odds change for a handful of matches, but not the entire board, days before a show.

In this case, I need more than The Miz being backed to convince me. Especially in a market where the four named selections were at plus money. If you go by how the television has been over the past three weeks, the hint of Miz winning has been there. Many regular WWE punters would have had him pegged to win this match long before last night. There is an exception here as well. In fact there are two - television would lead some to suspect Chris Jericho and Kalisto were winning. Last night's betting went the opposite direction as you can see above. So, there's that.

Another reason why I am not going to fully commit is - even though it could be argued people with knowledge of results have placed wagers where it matters - you're still gambling on Vince McMahon not changing his mind two days later. It happens.

I guess the best advice is to use your own judgement and tread carefully. That's the best approach for now.