Saturday 3 December 2016

TLC 2016 Match Duration Leans

I have been asked to share my thoughts on the match duration odds for tomorrow night's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2016 PPV.

In this post, I'll go through all the available markets and show you what the prices are. I'll then share with you what I would bet on if I were to have a punt. Please note that they are leans. I am not betting on all of these markets.

First, I'll start with the IC Title.

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When I initially looked through the markets earlier today, I noted that the traders had made a mistake and were offering 'Over 14' and 'Over 15' rather than, what I assumed, 'Over 15' and 'Under 14:59'. The market was then removed. The new lines, that can be viewed in the image above, were published instead.

Knowing that I could have had '15 minutes or over' if I had bet earlier, I would have passed on this if I were betting for real.

The next special is for the tag titles:

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I think it's priced up correctly. If I were to have a punt, it would be on the over.

The Smackdown Women's Championship market is showing:

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Once again, the traders have got it in the right spot. I can see this going either way, to be fair. I guess if I had to go with one, it'll be to take the better odds and hope for the over. It's a tough call.

So far, it's all overs. Kind of boring, huh? Let's see what the next offering is..

For the main event, the odds are:

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Even though it's high, I like the '24 minutes or more'. Yes - I am liking another over, but there is a good reason why I like it here.

The under is favoured because the majority of previous TLC matches have gone shorter than 23:59. However, things are different nowadays. Firstly, at the start of the year, WWE told its cable partners to expect events to go longer than usual. This opens up the window here for a potential long main event.

Secondly, we're talking about AJ Styles and Dean Ambrose who can both carry each other to a long bout.

And you know what the kicker is? We saw the Survivor Series main event go 1 minute and twenty-six seconds. I have a strong feeling that they'll compensate the quick finish to last month's show with an extended main event this time.

I've just typed myself into this one. I'm taking the over as soon as I press 'Publish'.

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