I've had a few people ask me about Bill Goldberg's odds and whether his price descending yesterday could be attributed to smart money. Even though it could be argued that it is, I am inclined to lean on the no.
Here are a few reasons why. Some thoughts might overlap.
- Brock Lesnar versus Bill Goldberg has been scheduled for WrestleMania 33 as far back as November when the decision was made for Lesnar to do a quick job to his rival. Brock would not have lost in this fashion if an agreement hadn't made for him to get his win back at Mania.
- As I wrote in every post about the price drop from yesterday, I think the idea that Lesnar vs Goldberg is being scrapped for Lesnar versus Braun Strowman is far-fetched. A bout between Lesnar and Strowman could very well happen another time, but I cannot envision WWE moving away from Lesnar and Goldberg.
- Here's another one that I've mentioned before: If Bill Goldberg .vs. Brock Lesnar is still locked in for WrestleMania, it makes no sense for Goldberg to win the Royal Rumble. Goldberg is losing at WrestleMania and Brock Lesnar will likely be off until SummerSlam. What becomes of the Universal Championship?
- Brock Lesnar is not scheduled to wrestle at Fast Lane, so where is he going to win the title and who is he going to defeat for it? The company isn't going to sacrifice Roman Reigns and why would Lesnar get the win over Kevin Owens when the company is trying to keep both Lesnar AND Owens heels heading into WrestleMania?
- Here's possibly the strongest reason I can think of: In all the years that I've been following line moves in pro wrestling betting, there has only been one occasion that I can recall when domestic odds moved sharply and the right sides won. This was for the first NXT TakeOver Brooklyn in 2015. All other domestic odds shifts have followed the off-shore movements.
That's five reasons I can think of. The bottom line is I need a lot more convincing. If a reliable source told me that Lesnar versus Goldberg is off the WrestleMania card, then I would start buying into it.
Until then, I'm calling BS.
Tuesday 24 January 2017
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Damn if Goldberg wins that would ruin a potentially great PPV no one wants to see that
ReplyDeleteBased on DVD sales, TV ratings etc, there are a lot of people out there who would like to see Goldberg win it.
DeleteIt's still based off UK punters and this alone is making me not worry about any odds shifting. Unless the insider(s) have leaked it early to UK fans somewhere which is unlikely as they will be looking for good value on 5dimes etc
DeleteMe being one of them since I placed a bet on him Months ago at 76.0 odds haha
DeleteOn recent years do you remember when smart money landed? I mean Royal Rumble winner is a corner stone on WWE calendar and it is supposed to be planned several weeks before the event unlike most of ppv regular matches
ReplyDeleteAll in all ,we wont know for sure until 5dimes open lines, right?
Just checked my database and here's what I've got. Times are approximate.
Delete2014 - Late Friday/Early Saturday
2015 - Night of the event 10pm UK
2016 - Night of the event 7:30pm UK
Yeah, the Royal Rumble and main part of the Mania card would all be worked out by now.
DeleteBryan Alvarez said on one of the Wrestling Observer Live shows this week that the company has locked in Mania and - as you'd expect - they work back from that and figure out who they want to win the Royal Rumble.
Good call I'm not buying Goldberg either, it's so refreshing to still be so unsure on who's winning
ReplyDeleteGut still says Taker then I think about Balor then I talk myself out of both of them
What common sense tells me is new blood is gonna win this Rumble.WWE is betting hard on new comers ,Styles,Balor,Owens (both champions are "newbies")
ReplyDeleteI cant see the purpouse of giving this one to an oldie...
Besides Goldberg and Lesnar are feuding,Undertaker is too old how cant he be a regular on TV as WWE champion? he doesnt need a belt surrounding his match at WM to make it interesting.
That leave us Balor,Strowman,Samoa Joe,Kenny Omega( I think he is not a free agent yet).
Surprise factor is on Balor and Joe,they are not "scheduled" to be part of Battle Royal.My guess would be one of those.
Anyways WWE tends to surprise us and they could make Mojo the next WWE title challenger...
Jokes apart thats my bet ,we got a debutant to win Rumble at 3.0 on kambi(Joe/Balor) and if we gonna not want to risk so much ,first time RR winner at 1.67(add Jericho,S