Thursday 23 November 2017

A Look Back At Kambi's Observer O/U Markets From Survivor Series (2017)

This week's issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter was published a short time ago. This edition features Dave Meltzer's official review of this past weekend's WWE Survivor Series and will therefore mean that any of the Wrestling Observer Star Rating betting markets will be settled by the Kambi oddsmakers as soon as they read their copy.

Unfortunately, the two selections I backed will be graded as losers when they're settled.

I went for the women's elimination match to receive more than 2.75 Stars. This fell short by half a star as it was given 2.50.

The other selection I backed was for The Miz and Baron Corbin to go under two-and-a-half stars. The match went over by a quarter.

In this post, I'll look through all of the Over/Under markets that were available last weekend and see how they'll be graded (if it hasn't been by the time this post sees the light of day).

With Elias versus Matt Hardy and Zayn/Owens .vs. Breezango being late additions to the card, there were no lines published for them. The only Kick Off match covered was for the Cruiserweight Championship clash between Enzo Amore and Kalisto.

Enzo Amore .vs. Kalisto

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Cruiserweight Championship

Enzo's victory over the former titleholder was set at 1.75 stars by the bookies. The prices weren't altered throughout the times that I observed the markets, so it's difficult to work out what was being backed the most. Anyone who backed 'Exactly' at 23/20 will have winning bets as the match hit the nose.

The Shield .vs. The New Day

The Shield's trios win over The New Day was given three-and-three-quarters by Meltzer.

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - The Shield .vs. The New Day

As you can see in the table above, the line was set at 4 stars. The punters had high hopes that it would go over this amount because they forced the bookmakers to slash the 'Over 4 Stars' from an opening 5/4 all the way to 3/4 by Sunday night.

Women's Elimination

As noted at the start, Team Raw Women's victory over Team Smackdown Women was given two-and-a-half stars by the editor and fell short of my prediction.

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Women's Elimination

The oddsmakers had set the line at 2.75. The 'Over' was slashed from 6/5 into EVS by Saturday evening and remained that way until at least Sunday night. 
The winning selection is obviously 'Under 2.75 Stars'. 

The Miz .vs. Baron Corbin

Another one I called incorrectly was for The Miz .vs. Baron Corbin to go below the line of 2.50 stars.

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Corbin .vs. Miz

The match being rated two-and-three-quarters means that anyone who took the over chose the right side.

The Usos .vs. Sheamus/Cesaro

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - The Usos .vs. The Bar

Judging by how the betting went over the weekend, it's safe to say that the consensus expected the battle of the tag team champions to receive less than four stars. The market was slashed from 7/5 on Friday morning all the way down to 11/20 by Sunday night.

The match received three-and-a-half stars, so the punters were correct.

Alexa Bliss .vs. Charlotte Flair

Charlotte Flair's submission win over Alexa Bliss was rated two-and-a-half stars in the review.

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Bliss .vs. Flair

As you can see, it looks like another win for the customers as they backed 'Under 3.25 Stars' from day one. It was cut from 4/5 into 3/4 within the first few hours and fell to 1/2 near to its close.

Brock Lesnar .vs. AJ Styles

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Lesnar .vs. Styles

My favourite match of the weekend received four-and-a-quarter stars. Therefore, anyone who backed 'Exactly 4.25 Stars' will have their bets settled in their favour.
Looking at the odds movement, it's safe to presume that the customers believed that this match would end up being short and potentially one-sided so backed the option to go under what ended up being the actual rating.

Men's Elimination 

The line for the main event was set at 4.50. It was far, far too high. The match was graded one-and-three quarters.

Survivor Series 2017 Observer Star Rating Odds - Main Event

It's difficult to determine what the consensus went with as the market was stationary throughout the weekend. Anyone who took the 'Under 4.50' will end up being a winner.

These markets were one type of Wrestling Observer star rating specials that were published over the weekend. I'll go through the rest in a separate post later on today.

When available, Observer betting odds can be found on the websites that publish Kambi's markets. A couple of examples can be found below:



Update: The bookmakers settled all of these markets while I was writing this post.

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