Wednesday, 4 June 2014

Dolphins Said, The Results Read : Payback 2014 Edition

For the past few months, I have been publishing a post-mortem on what Dolphins1925 had tweeted before each pay-per-view and compared them with the betting odds for each match. The idea behind it was to point out that the Reddit/Twitter user (or his alleged source) is/are not being above board with how they are getting their WWE spoilers.

They claim they have an inside source. I call BS. The thing is - they're doing a better job proving my point than even I can. Keep reading and you'll see why.

As per usual, I'll start with the first tweet of the evening and end up with the final one.

'Spoiler' 1 - The Shield will defeat Evolution

At the time of the tweet, The Shield were -900 (1/9 UK) in the betting. Shield won.

'Spoiler' 2 - John Cena will defeat Bray Wyatt

Cena was -510 (10/51 UK) and did win the match.

'Spoiler' 3 - Bad News Barrett will defeat Rob Van Dam

Barrett was a strong favourite to leave as victor. He was -5400 (1/54 UK). Barret got the W.

'Spoiler' 4 - Sheamus will defeat Cesaro

The Irishman was -1050 (2/21 UK) when the tweet was made. Another win.

'Spoiler' 5 - Paige will defeat Alicia Fox

The current WWE Divas Champion was -1850 (2/37 UK) at that point of the evening. Her odds would shorten further as her match was the penultimate one of the show. She won.

'Spoiler 6' - Alexander Rusev will defeat Big E. Langston

Here's an eyebrow raiser. Not because Rusev winning was unlikely. Far from it. What is interesting is that Dolphins still used the 'Langston' surname. Yes, I'm splitting hairs here, but think about it. If somebody from within WWE was leaking the names out, would they still be calling him by a name he hasn't used since February? Furthermore, he was still written down as 'Big E. Langston' on the betting board. As I mentioned, this is a weak case. The next 'spoiler' might strengthen my point, though. As for the match itself - Rusev was -1850 (2/37 UK) at the time of the tweet.

'Spoiler' 7 - Bo Dallas will defeat Kofi Kingston

There was no betting line out for this match. Calling for a Bo win was not a stab in the dark. The wrestler has just reappeared on the main roster with a new gimmick he debuted on NXT. The company would not have him lose this early. And, I'm sorry to say, they wouldn't have him lose to Kofi Kingston. What I am saying is, anybody could have called this one on paper. Only it didn't work out that way. The match ended in a no contest after Kane interrupted just as the bell sounded. Bo exited the ring, Kane beat on Kofi. Had there been a line for this match, it would have been voided. The insiders, knowing the result, would have ignored the match even if it had been up on the board. How do I know this? Because they did the same for Battleground's non-finish in October last year. It's worth pointing out that Dolphins went with the favourite that night, as well.

One of the things that has concerned me with the Dolphins1925 phenomenon is that there are people out there still waiting on him to dish out his 'spoilers' each and every pay-per-view Sunday. I have read tweets where people ask him to hurry up as they want to place bets on what he says.

The WWE betting landscape is getting a little less easier to read for many reasons nowadays and I believe we're getting close to the point where some of the bookmakers' favourites might end up losing in at least one match each month.

The reason why I have arrived at this conclusion is the underdog bettors are making lines move a lot through the course of a weekend. You only have to read the posts on this blog from a few days ago to see what I mean. The Shield and Evolution were fighting back-and-forth throughout Sunday. And this was before they even stepped into the ring! One moment Team A were favoured, the next they were the underdogs.

The Divas Championship match is another example of the lines telling a story even if there wasn't a favourite/outsider role reversal as was evident in the aforementioned Evolution versus The Shield wagering.

Alicia Fox opened up as a +1500 underdog, but at one point on Sunday she was available at +500 before drifting back out to +1300 by the start of her match. If you had been watching the odds from the moment they were published, you would wonder whether insiders had started backing Fox to win. 

Obviously, the insiders didn't move these prices. It was bettors taking the odds. It happens a lot in regular sports wagering and happens in wrestling betting. 

There might come a time where the underdog bettors move a line to the point where an outsider becomes a favourite at the moment when Dolphins is reading the odds and announcing his or her alleged insider information. Not knowing whether there had been any inside action that weekend could cause the Reddit/Twitter user to give out yet another false result.

If you ever feel compelled to wager on Dolphins' 'spoilers' you ought to bear this in mind before following the predictions with your money.

2 comments:

  1. Just a quick comment David....about 5-6 ppv's ago the odds on 5Dimes used to change dramatically from say -250 to -6000 on nearly every single match on the ppv except the main event but recently it probably happens on just 1 or 2 matches and the rest are considerably low....so my point is is there not as much smart money being placed or is it down to the fact wwe are keeping tight lipped about the results these days???? I am still unsure that smart money is actually being placed and is down to the fact the favourites are the most likely winners anyway or is smart money actually being placed in your opinion...also this is probably why dolphins1925 is getting so much of his predictions wrong lately......but in my opinion the amount of coverage there has been on dolphins1925 could be the reason why wwe are keeping so tight lipped about the results unlike the previous times even though he is going off the betting odds just the fact its been brought to the attention on wwe could mean that wwe are changing the results due to dolphins1925 getting so much coverage recently!!

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    1. The underdog bettors are making it difficult to know whether the smart money has landed. Remember, the sportsbook is there to try and make a balance. If they have X amount on an underdog, they can put out an even more tempting price on a favourite and vice versa.

      We're just going to have to keep watching to see if this trend continues.

      Also, If WWE were going to change the results because of Dolphins, the company would have done so when the story first made the mainstream.

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