Monday 4 April 2016

Saturday Was The Day

Now that the WrestleMania betting storm is over, I think it's safe to conclude that Saturday was the day when the smart money landed on the WrestleMania 32 results.

At the time, I was reluctant to run with the idea that what we were seeing was smart movement because I felt it was too early.

It evidently wasn't.

Even though things started changing at around mid afternoon, the time I am concentrating on more is between the hours of 5pm and 7pm BST because it more or less gives us strong shifts to back up the case I am making.

Here's what we witnessed between those hours:

The Undertaker from -320 to -1,200
Brock Lesnar from -230 to -1,500
Roman Reigns from -460 to -1,500
Charlotte from -150 to -350 (not much, I know!)
The Usos -560 to -1,500
Chris Jericho -210 to -1,200
Zack Ryder from +350 to -350

We also had slight moves on:

Kalisto -230 to -270
League of Nations -105 to -120

The market that is intriguing is the Total Divas versus Team BAD & Blonde. At the highlighted period, the heels went from -300 to -1,500. I can only surmise that they were originally scheduled to win and a change was made later that day as, between 7pm and 11pm, the team of the Total Divas cast had dropped from +700 to -185. They were -475 at 5:30am BST the following day.

Another tell that I noted in one of my posts on Saturday, and should have given away that we were potentially witnessing smart movements, was the fact that the battle royal wrestler markets weren't being backed. 'The Field .vs. the favourite (Strowman)' was bet. Possibly by people who knew that he was not winning.

As we now know, the eventual winner - Baron Corbin - was not listed, so the customers had no reason to wager there.

I don't know if it was a one-off because of how busy they must be that weekend, but it'll be something to watch out for in future.

20 comments:

  1. Still thankfulky made profit from it all but forever hating the jericho decision.. Thank you for your posts and odds coverage over wrestlemania, see you at payback!

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  2. Yeah looking back that was the key time. Fan money seemed to sway the prices back between then and Sunday early evening as Styles became favourite again. No more backing before the markets move for me, Charlotte winning killed my chances of making a tidy profit.

    Nice touch by Skybet to refund all Battle Royal bets due to not having Corbin listed.

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    Replies
    1. Unlucky.

      Sky Bet are good at that. They refunded a Royal Rumble winner bet I placed but didn't have to.

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  3. David this is the second time you have mentioned that money was not put on the battle royal but as I did mention before money did go on the battle royal at the time "smart money" landed. I know this because the field against Strowman was -140 and when the money landed it went to -740 or there about so the person knew it was not going to be Strowman that won! But just like the other matches fan betting drew it back in favour of Strowman over the next 24hrs! This is exactly the same that happened to Kevin Owens vs the field market where the field became favourites!!

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    Replies
    1. I corrected my sentence because what I meant was none of the named runners were being backed.

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    2. I actually had a eerie feeling he would win when I saw his name everywhere about the battle royal rumours on Sunday morning. Wish I went for the 17/1 on 888sport I nearly did but decided against it.

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    3. 'The Field .vs. Strowman' bets were graded as cancelled in the end as well. So, they didn't win out on that selection.

      (A guy on Twitter contacted me and told me last night they didn't pay out on that result and he just checked back in with me to confirm).

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  4. So are there some people,call it wwe insiders who know the results and bet on it?
    It was very surprising to me that every favorite in all 12 matches won ...good to know when the smart money is being invested...

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    Replies
    1. There's absolutely people who know the results ahead of time backing the right side and forcing the lines to move.

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    2. I still feel sorry for the poor soul who put £35,000 on undertaker against brock lesnar to make a £200 profit and lost it all

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  5. Did you see the Wrestling Inc article that "sources say the outcomes of matches were not finalised until 4pm BST Sunday". The odds changing on Saturday seem to differ with their 'sources'

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  6. Got taken to the cleaners by Zack Ryder, but still managed to turn in a healthy profit. Arrogant of me to bet on Owens that early - I'm still learning. At least I had the wherewithal not to bet on Styles, haha.

    5pm - 7pm BST would have been 11am - 1pm Dallas lunchtime. Maybe some WWE production meeting happens around these hours and this is where the planned results are first confirmed within the company. I'm going to make a note of when these strong shifts that Mr Taylor spoke about occur for each PPV. Hopefully there is a pattern.

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    Replies
    1. My guess is Saturday was a one-off for WrestleMania because of everything that was going down that weekend (Hall of Fame on the Saturday evening etc). We'll see.

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    2. The article says between 4-5pm local time (guessing texas) (10pm UK time) which actually is the time on Sunday the odds started coming back in for all the favourites from the previous day so sounds about right which means someone would have known the final results on Saturday.

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  7. In relation to IC match the odds of Zack Ryder started dropping between 31st March and 1st April which is a tell tale sign that the results were finalised before saturday.

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    Replies
    1. In my opinion, It was fan money that was moving it before Saturday.

      Bovada's lines would have been hit harder than they were so I can't agree there.

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  8. Just read an interesting article about Falcon Arrow and he said that the results were laid out a week before Wrestlemania and if anyone is aware of him he is legit

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  9. ^ Just read this... we should keep an eye out for that guy he's always spot on. Could make us some good money if he resurfaces :o on another note I've randomly been paid out for the no linda mcmahon appearence

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