A Look At Kambi's 'Method Of Decision' Odds For Lesnar .vs. Joe

It has been ten days since I last published a post where I looked through the 'Method of Decision' odds for the WWE Great Balls of Fire main event. I thought that, now the market has been republished, it was worth checking out the latest prices to see where the customers have been wagering.

When the market was priced up, the oddsmakers chose three selections for the customers to decide how Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe would end. They went with 'Pinfall', 'Submission' or 'Any Other Result'.

Within the first day of the odds being published, the punters appeared to have sided with the 'Pinfall' as the price had been slashed from 1/4 into 1/7.

The market was then taken down shortly afterwards, but was reinstalled a few hours ago with 'Pinfall' now cut to 1/8.

Personally, I think that the either of the two other options is how the match could end. Before I get to that, you can see how the betting has changed the market in the three visits that I've made.

Date and Time	Pinfall	Submission	Any Other Method
18/6 11pm	1/4	5/2	5/1
19/6 8:30pm	1/7	15/4	"
28/6 8:30pm	1/8	7/2	6/1

As you can see, the 'Pinfall' selection has been on the descent since the market was put up. The 'Submission' initially moved out from 5/2 to 15/4, but has now evidently been snipped to 7/2 while the 'Any Other' selection has moved up to 6/1 from 5/1.

There are many ways this match could go, but I don't think it'll result in a pinfall. 

One scenario I have thought of is that it'll end with Samoa Joe passing out while being in the grips of Lesnar's Kimura Lock. This way, Joe will be protected from having to submit properly. 

Based off what we've seen on TV, with Joe putting Paul Heyman and Brock Lesnar in submission moves, I strongly believe that's how he'll get his comeuppance when he meets Lesnar in ten days.

If you check out the rules of the bet, you'll notice the bookies are also covering themselves just in case the scenario of Joe passing out is how the match concludes.

Click on image to expand

I've highlighted the market from LeoVegas' WWE Page where it states that 'Submission includes "passing out"'.

Even though I am leaning on 'Submission', I've also placed a speculative punt on the 'Any other method' just in case there's a finish where the bout ends in a no contest, double disqualification or double countout. I didn't come to this conclusion on my own. If you've been reading the Hypothetical Proposition posts, you've more than likely seen a screwy finish or draw is something that an oddsmaker has factored in if he were pricing up a market specifically for this match.

The match is meant to be a one and done. However, I think a submission 'loss' in that manner by Samoa Joe  or 'Any other result' will keep things open-ended for potential future matches.

Odds were correct at the time of posting. Image from LeoVegas' WWE Betting Markets.