In the weeks, but mainly the days, leading into WWE Great Balls of Fire 2017, the oddsmakers that price up betting markets for the
casino and sports betting websites that run the Kambi platform installed a number of specials where customers could wager on how Dave Meltzer would rate the Great Balls of Fire matches in the following issue of the
Wrestling Observer Newsletter.
The latest copy has now been published, so - in this post - I'll run through all of the Wrestling Observer Star Ratings markets that were available for Great Balls of Fire 2017 and see how they'll be settled.
There were three types of wagers. One kind featured over/under prop bets where clients could guess whether the newsletter editor would rate over or under a specific number of stars that the trader placed on each match, the second was a long-list where customers could have a punt on the match that received the most stars in the review and the final market was a 15/1 straight bet where customers could wager on Meltzer rewarding any of the matches on the card one of his infamous Five Stars or more.
Over/Under Markets
Neville .vs. Akira Tozawa
Neville's defence of the WWE Cruiserweight Championship against Akira Tozawa was the first match of the night as it took place on the pre-show. The majority of sportsbooks didn't publish match markets for this bout, but Kambi released pricing on Sunday. One of the markets the oddsmakers priced up was an Observer over/under.
The compiler hanged the line out at 4 stars. Both the 'Over' and 'Under' were 17/20. By match time, you could see the clients had backed the under.
I was one of the customers to go low. The reason why is because I felt that - with the match being on the Kick Off - that there was no guarantee the two would be given enough time.
Meltzer rated it three-and-a-quarter stars. Therefore, the punters were on the right track,
Seth Rollins .vs. Bray Wyatt
The opener of the main part of the show saw Bray Wyatt defeat Seth Rollins. Going in, the traders set the line at three-and-three-quarter stars with 'Over' and 'Under' both at 17/20 pick 'ems.
By the following morning, the traders had snipped the 'Over' into 4/5. However, on the morning of the event, the customers appeared to have backed the 'Under' as the bookies had moved back to the original price. The odds remained at these numbers right through to the match.
This match was given two-and-three-quarters as Meltzer thought it was below Seth Rollins' usual level on pay-per-view.
Enzo Amore .vs. Big Cass
The line for Enzo Amore versus Big Cass was set at three stars with 'Over' and 'Under' opening at 17/20 each.
The market was stationary for a couple of days, but - by Sunday morning - the punters had moved the 'Under' into 5/9 while the 'Over' was moved out to 5/4. The prices stayed where they were right up to the moment they were taken down ahead of the opening bell.
Meltzer graded this with one star.
Cesaro and Sheamus .vs. The Hardys
This was one of the most intriguing markets of the weekend.
As you can see, the oddsmakers set the line at three-and-three-quarter stars with the 'Under' a 4/5 favourite to the Over's 9/10. By Friday evening, it was apparent that the customers were expecting the bout to go under as it had been slashed to 17/20. By Saturday morning, the majority had decided to place their stakes on 'Over'. The odds continued to fall from there as it closed at 18/25.
I wrote in
a post over the weekend that I understood why people were backing the match to be reviewed highly. The main reason was because it was guaranteed to go at least thirty minutes, so there was enough time to tell a story. Meltzer rated it three-and-a-quarter stars. So, the early birds were on the right side when they backed the under on Friday.
Alexa Bliss .vs. Sasha Banks
The oddsmakers set the WWE Raw Women's Championship line at three-and-three-quarters with both options at 17/20. It was the 'Under' all the way from there.
As you can see, 'Under' was backed into 4/5 by Friday evening. It was at 13/20 the following morning and had descended to 5/9 on Sunday morning. The market closed early due to Sasha Banks' odds to win the match plummeted both off-shore and domestically. This resulted in Kambi temporarily removing all markets associated with the Raw Women's Championship bout. When the match odds were republished, the Observer Special was unavailable.
Dave Meltzer thought that the bout was 'just standard' for most of it. He gave it two-and-three-quarter stars, so the customers who wagered on the 'Under' through the weekend were backing the correct result.
The Miz .vs. Dean Ambrose
This market opened with the star rating line at three-and-a-half. The 'Over' was an 18/25 favourite from the first day and stayed that way right through to the moment when the market closed before the bell sounded to start the match.
The match was given two-and-a-half stars. One star lower than the line.
Roman Reigns .vs. Braun Strowman
Dave Meltzer gave the ambulance match between Roman Reigns and Braun Strowman three-and-three-quarter stars.
When the market was installed, the oddsmakers placed the line at four stars. 'Under' was a 4/5 favourite and the 'Over' was out at 9/10.
The customers moved in favour of the 'Under' by Sunday morning as it had been snipped to 18/25. The market stayed at these numbers until it was closed.
Brock Lesnar .vs. Samoa Joe
Unlike with the other over/under specials, a Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe market was published three weeks before Great Balls of Fire. When it was first installed, the traders had set the line at 4-and-a-quarter stars. 'Over' was 9/10 and 'Under' was a 4/5 favourite. It appears as though the customers liked the 'Under' hitting as they backed into into 13/20 before the traders moved the line to four.
As soon as the line changed, the punters backed the 'Over' in a move that I agreed with. I also backed this option. I was more comfortable siding with more than four than 'Over 4.25'.
My bet turned out to be a losing one as Meltzer gave the match three-and-a-half stars. The 'Under 4.25' backers will be happy today as will those who may have backed the 'Under' when the line was moved to four.
Overall, this was a clean sweep for the 'Under' as every single market failed to go higher than the bookmakers' lines.
Highest Rated Match Of The Night
Now that you've seen what nearly all of the matches on the card got, you'll know that the highest rated bout of the night was the ambulance match which received three-and-three-quarter stars.
This match was a 6/4 second-favourite throughout the weekend.
For reference, the 'Any Other Match' that was graded one star was Enzo Amore versus Big Cass. Curt Hawkins versus Heath Slater was unrated because we didn't get to see the match properly.
Any Match To Get 5 Stars Or More?
With the highest rated bout getting three-and-three-quarter stars, it should go without stating that the market where customers could get 15/1 odds on Dave Meltzer praising a match enough to give five stars or more will end up settled as a loss.
The next show is WWE Battleground on July 23rd. Kambi has already published two over/under markets for this event and I have placed a bet on one of them. You can read about it
in this post.
As of the time of writing, the sportsbook has removed its Battleground markets, but I am sure they'll be republished eventually. When available, you'll be able to view Kambi's WWE odds on websites like:
