If you haven't been around until today, the market was published a few weeks ago. It allows the sportsbooks' customers the opportunity to wager on how the Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe match will end. The options available are 'Pinfall', 'Submission' or 'Any Other Method'.
From the start, I was against the idea of this match ending with either Lesnar or Joe losing via pinfall. This was despite the early bettors thinking so and moving 'Pinfall' from 1/4 to 1/8 in the initial period of wagering.
With Joe choking out Finn Balor with the Coquina Clutch to earn the title shot and even putting Paul Heyman and Brock Lesnar in the finisher in angles building up tonight's show, I cannot shake off the feeling that the match will either in a submission or 'Any Other Method'.
A submission win for Brock Lesnar could be done by having Samoa Joe placed in Lesnar's Kimura Lock with Joe refusing to quit before passing out.
In yesterday's post where I wrote about the market, a visitor commented that he didn't think a submission move that targeted the shoulder was convincing enough to move him away from choosing to back a pinfall.
That's a fair point. However, one of the most iconic finishes in WrestleMania history was from a guy passing out from the pain of a submission move that targets the leg and back.
I am referring, of course, to 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin's loss to Bret Hart at WrestleMania 13.
After reading the comment, I published a poll on Twitter to gauge how wrestling fans felt tonight's match would finish.
I was somewhat surprised to see pinfall win the poll.
Of the nineteen voters, eight people believe that the match will end with Joe or Lesnar having their shoulders being pinned to the mat for the three count.
The poll results also correlate with how the betting market has changed since yesterday as the Kambi oddsmakers have snipped 'Pinfall' from EVS to 4/5 and have kept 'Submission' at 3/1.
'Any Other Method', which is the third option and one that I also believe has a chance of being a winning bet, has moved out from EVS to 5/4 since yesterday.
I suggested both 'Submission' and 'Any Other Method' when they were 7/2 and 6/1 respectively. Even after seeing the poll results and the price changes, I still cannot picture either wrestler being pinned tonight.
You can view a table showing how I have tracked the betting in this market below:
|
Date and Time
|
Pinfall
|
Submission
|
Any Other Method
|
|
18/6 11pm
|
1/4
|
5/2
|
5/1
|
|
19/6 8:30pm
|
1/7
|
15/4
|
"
|
|
28/6 8:30pm
|
1/8
|
7/2
|
6/1
|
|
29/6 1am
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
3pm
|
11/50
|
3/1
|
9/2
|
|
30/6 10:30am
|
1/3
|
"
|
3/1
|
|
2/7 9am
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
3/7 11:30am
|
1/2
|
7/2
|
7/4
|
|
8:30pm
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
7/7 11am
|
3/5
|
15/4
|
7/5
|
|
8/7 12pm
|
EVS
|
3/1
|
EVS
|
|
9/7 11am
|
4/5
|
"
|
5/4
|
This special can be found alongside other specials for the main event on the websites that offer Kambi betting odds. A few examples can be found below:
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