The market was first installed on Sunday June 18th and it gave Kambi customers the opportunity to wager on how the Brock Lesnar .vs. Samoa Joe bout would conclude. The three options on the board were 'Pinfall,' 'Submission' or 'Any Other Method'.
Within the first day, customers appeared to have backed a pinfall as it was slashed from 1/4 into 1/7. Then - when the market was republished after being temporarily removed - the option was down to 1/8.
I thought from the start that the punters were betting the wrong choice. I still do.
The entire build up has focused on Samoa Joe's Coquina Cluth submission hold. He used it to win the title opportunity in the Fatal 5-Way match and applied the move not only to Brock Lesnar, but Lesnar's advoocate - Paul Heyman - in the build to the match.
My initial thought was that the match would end with Lesnar applying a submission move of his own - The Kimura Lock - and this would end in Joe passing out. With this finish, Joe is somewhat protected. He suffers a loss, but doesn't tap out or audibly quit.
Joe losing via a submisison would be retribution for the moves he has done in the build to the match.
If you've been reading the Hypothetical Proposition Posts - where I asked a person from the gaming industry how he would price up the main event if he were in charge of a book that published WWE odds - you would have seen other kinds of finishes being suggested. For example, a double count-out or disqualification. After having the discussions, I was open to another kind of decision other than a pinfall or submission.
It was really anything but a pinfall from the start and it still is with a day to go until we'll see how the match ends.
The table below shows how all three selections have changed over the times that I've recorded the moves that have been made in the market.
|
Date and Time
|
Pinfall
|
Submission
|
Any Other Method
|
|
18/6 11pm
|
1/4
|
5/2
|
5/1
|
|
19/6 8:30pm
|
1/7
|
15/4
|
"
|
|
28/6 8:30pm
|
1/8
|
7/2
|
6/1
|
|
29/6 1am
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
3pm
|
11/50
|
3/1
|
9/2
|
|
30/6 10:30am
|
1/3
|
"
|
3/1
|
|
2/7 9am
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
3/7 11:30am
|
1/2
|
7/2
|
7/4
|
|
8:30pm
|
"
|
"
|
"
|
|
7/7 11am
|
3/5
|
15/4
|
7/5
|
|
8/7 12pm
|
EVS
|
3/1
|
EVS
|
As you can see, the early birds went right after a pinfall decision. Then, after I pointed out the potential for a 'Submission' or 'Any Other Method' of a result, 'Submission' fell from 7/2 to 3s and 'Other' dropped from 6/1 into 9/2.
When I last left the odds yesterday, I noticed that 'Submission' had drifted out from 7/2 to 15/4 while 'Any Other Method' fell from 7/4 into 7/5. Today's odds point to 'Submission' and 'Any Other' being backed with the former dipping from 15/4 into 3/1 and the latter being snipped from 7/5 into EVENS.
The customers are once again in the same mindset and seem to like anything but a pinfall decision tomorrow night. I sure hope we're right.
Odds correct as of 12pm BST. They can be found on the websites that run the Kambi betting platform.
Passing out from a move that targets the shoulder? Im not convinced, the bigger pinfall gets the more im tempted. Brock is huge fav to win. Brock hasnt displayed any moves that would allow Jo to pass out in and submitting the submission machine is a complete burial. Two F5's would protect him. Even money for a pinfall finish in wrestling? HUGE!!!!
ReplyDeleteUnless we think that they will have an epic match and then Jo gets DQ to save face :) I love this main event!
ReplyDeleteWe'll see..
ReplyDelete