Friday, 7 July 2017

WON Star Ratings Specials For Great Balls Of Fire

The Kambi oddsmakers priced up a series of over/under proposition markets for Great Balls of Fire this morning where customers could wager on how Dave Meltzer rates most of the matches on the card in his review of the event which should appear in the next issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter. Then - later on in the day - the traders put up two more Observer specials.

In this post, I'll go through all of the Observer-themed markets that customers can bet on with the websites that offer Kambi pricing.

Any Match On The Card To Be Given A 5 Star Rating Or More
This market is published every PPV. They're usually set at either 15/1 or 20/1. This month, it's 15/1. I'm not compelled to back it. There hasn't been a match rated five stars in WWE since Money in the Bank 2011.

Highest Rated Match Of The Night
This kind of market is one of my favourites to follow. The traders have priced up all of the matches scheduled for Sunday and have also thrown in an 'Any Other' just in case there are any late additions to the card. The winning selection will be the bout that is rated the most stars in Dave Meltzer's review of the event in the next edition of the Observer. Here are the odds as they stood at 7pm BST this evening:

Wrestling Observer Star Rating Betting Odds For Great Balls of Fire 2017
Click on image to expand

The above image is taken from Unibet's WWE Betting Page. It shows that the oddsmakers are expecting the main event of the evening to be rewarded with the most stars by the newsletter's editor. They have priced it at 9/10. There are two second-favourites in the ambulance match and the Cruiserweight Championship meeting between Neville and Akira Tozawa. Next up are Bray Wyatt vs Seth Rollins and 30-minute iron man match. They're both 4/1. The Raw Women's Championship bout is 6/1, Miz versus Dean Ambrose is 10/1 and the 'Any Other' gamble will pay out at odds of 20/1 if it's successful.

There are seven over/under markets available to customers. I'll go through each one individually.

Enzo Amore .vs. Big Cass
The line has been set at 3 Stars with both the 'Over' and 'Under' at 17/20.

Alexa Bliss .vs. Sasha Banks
When they first put the market up this morning, the oddsmakers set the line at at three-and-three-quarter stars. Customers were given the choice at the over or the under at 17/20 each. As of right now, the 'Under' has been backed into 4/5 while the 'Over' has been raised to 9/10. 

Roman Reigns .vs. Braun Strowman
The line has been set at four stars in this market with both 'Over' and 'Under' at 17/20 each.

Seth Rollins .vs. Bray Wyatt
The Rollins versus Wyatt line has been set at 3.75. The 'Over' and 'Under' are 17/20 each.

The Miz .vs. Dean Ambrose
'Over 3.5 Stars' is an 18/25 favourite in the WWE Intercontinental Championship special. A winning bet on the 'Under' will pay out at EVENS. 

Cesaro and Sheamus .vs. The Hardys 
The market for the 30-minute iron man match opened with the oddsmakers setting the line at 3.75 Stars. The over was 9/10 and the under was 4/5. It appears as though the customers have backed the over as it has been snipped into 17/20 while the under has drifted to 17/20 from 4/5. 

Brock Lesnar .vs. Samoa Joe
This market was first opened on the night of WWE Money in the Bank. However, back then, the line was set at 4.25 stars. It is now at 4.00 stars. Before pointing out the prices for the current odds, it's worth looking at how the betting went when the line was set higher.

Date and Time
4.25 Stars or Over
Under 4.25 Stars
18/6 11:10pm
9/10
4/5
19/6 8:30pm
"
"
28/6 8:30pm
EVS
18/25
30/6 10:30am
"
"
2/7 9:00am
"
"
3/7 11:30am
11/10
13/20
8:30pm
"
"

As you can see, the customers appear to have sided with this match being rated under 4.25 stars. This is probably why the oddsmakers decided to change the line to four stars.

The new line, and its pricing, are:

Date/Time
4 Stars or Over
Under 4 Stars
7/7 11am
17/20
17/20
9pm
"
"

Just like in the post where I wrote about the match duration specials and having an idea how long the ambulance match will be on Sunday, I have predicted how this match will be graded - if it goes the way I think it will - and was reluctant to back either selection when the line was set at 4.25. I am now slightly leaning on the over 4.00, though.

When I think of Lesnar versus Joe, I can't help but feel nostalgic to the times when I was looking forward to seeing Kurt Angle versus Joe. A number of weeks back, I checked out some of the ratings from my favourite Angle/Joe matches from TNA and they were in the four to four-and-a-quarter range. 

On top of this, I also decided to check out a highly anticipated Lesnar match - the first meeting between he and John Cena. This took place at Extreme Rules 2012 and was given four-and-a-half stars.

As of the time of publishing, backing four stars or over in the main event is the only Observer-themed selection that I would consider backing in these over/under markets.

When available, the markets can be found on the websites that offer Kambi pricing. A couple of examples can be found below:


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