Friday, 12 April 2019

How Kambi's Observer O/U Markets For NXT TakeOver: New York (2019) Were Settled

Dave Meltzer's review of this past weekend's NXT TakeOver: New York special was published in the latest issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter.

This might be welcome news to customers who bet on Kambi's Observer star rating lines leading into Friday's show.

In this post, I'll take a look at how the Over/Under markets were settled today and see how the line and betting action compare with Meltzer's match evaluation.

NXT Tag Team Championship
The War Raiders' successful defence of the NXT Tag Team Championship over Ricochet and Aleister Black had a line of 4.5 stars when Kambi started to take bets on the match on March 31st. By the third day, the bookies had snipped the 'Under 4.5 Stars' selection from 3/4 into 7/10. The prices remained this way right up until the last time I looked over them a couple of hours ahead of showtime.

NXT Tag Team Championship
Over 4.5 Stars
Exactly 4.5 Stars
Under 4.5 Stars
31/3 4:00PM
3/4 7:00PM

The actual rating for the match was 4.5, so those who backed the 19/10 were on the right side.

NXT North American Championship
Kambi set the line at 4.25 stars for the Velveteen Dream .vs. Matt Riddle match for the NXT North American Championship. The 'Over' was 6/5, 'Under' was 17/20 and the 'Exactly 4.25 Stars' was priced 39/20.

The winning selection was the 'Over' as Meltzer rated it a quarter of a star higher than the line.

NXT UK Championship 
Walter's NXT UK Championship win against Pete Dunne received four-and-three-quarter stars from Meltzer in his review of the match. Kambi had set the line at 4.50, so the 'Over' - at 23/20 - turned out to be the correct play. The 'Under' was 10/11 and the 'Exactly 4.50 Stars' was set at 19/10.

NXT Women's Championship
There was a lot of interest in backing 'Over 3.25 Stars' in the market for Shayna Baszler's NXT Women's Championship defence against Bianca Belair, Kairi Sane and Io Shirai in a a fatal 4-way match.

NXT Women's Championship
Over 3.25 Stars
Exactly 3.25 Stars
Under 3.25 Stars
31/3 4:00PM
1/4 3:30PM
2/4 3:00PM
3/4 7:00PM
4/4 6:30PM

As you can see, it went from 17/20 all the way down to 4/9 and was still at this price on the night of the event.

A good reason why I believe the match had interest is because there was a rumour that the bout could end up being contested as a ladder match. I backed the selection when it was 17/20 mainly because I thought it had a chance of beating the line, but partially because of the rumoured stip that didn't end up being happening.

Meltzer gave the match three-and-three-quarters, so those who rode the 'Over' were on the right side.

NXT Championship
Johnny Gargano .vs. Adam Cole was rated very highly by the newsletter's editor. In fact, the five-and-a-half stars is, as far as I'm aware, the most a WWE match has received in the history of Meltzer's star ratings.

It should go without saying that the 'Over' was the winning bet for this match.

The bookies set the line at 4.75 and, going by the betting between March 31st and the afternoon of the show, it looks like at least one bet came in on the match hitting 4.75 exactly as the middle option was snipped from 7/4 into 33/20 while 'Over' was increased to 7/5 from 13/10.

Over 4.75 Stars
Exactly 4.75 Stars
Under 4.75 Stars
31/3 4:00PM
3/4 7:00PM
5/4 4:00PM
5/4 9:20PM

By Friday night, the odds for the eventual winning selection dropped to 5/4.

Below is an at a glance look at the lines versus the stars with the results of each market. If that isn't an indicator of a great show, I don't know what is!

NXT TakeOver: New York (2019) Over/Under Betting

The markets were available to customers of websites that publish Kambi's WWE betting markets. A couple of examples can be found below.

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