Friday, 15 November 2019

WON Star Ratings O/U Results For AEW Full Gear

The latest issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter, which features Dave Meltzer's review of AEW Full Gear, was published this morning.

Now that the review has been written, Kambi's oddsmakers will grade five Observer star ratings markets that were published for the PPV.

In this post, I'll go through the markets in the order of how the matches appeared on the PPV card and point out how each will be settled.

The first market that had a market for it, going down the PPV order, was the one which saw The Young Bucks lose to Ortiz and Santana.

Kambi's line for the match was set at 4.25 Stars. The editor rated it exactly as Kambi projected it.


Santana and Ortiz .vs. Bucks
O 4.25
E 4.25
U 4.25
27/10 5:00PM
3/4
5/2
11/10
31/10 3:45PM
4/6
"
6/5
9/11 8:00PM
"
"
"

As you can see, the winning selection - 'Exactly 4.25 Stars' - was 5/2 throughout the time the market was available to customers. Looking at how the betting went, it appears the consensus backed it to go over as the odds for that selection went from 3/4 into 4/6.

The next match with a star ratings market was Adam Page versus PAC.

Meltzer graded the bout, which saw Page get a decision over his opponent, four-and-a-quarter as well. This meant that it was a win for those who may have backed the 'Over' as Kambi's line was four stars.

Page .vs. PAC
O 4
E 4
U 4
27/10 5:00PM
13/10
9/4
4/6
31/10 3:45PM
6/5
12/5
7/10
4/11 7:30PM
EVS
"
17/20
7/11 7:00PM
17/20
"
EVS
9/11 8:00PM
"
"
"

It looks like the consensus made the right call because, if you look at the movement above, the odds for 'Over 4 Stars' gradually dropped from its opening 13/10 and was down to 17/20 in the days leading into the show.

A market for the AEW World Tag Team Championship three-way was published on November 7th with the line at four stars. The pricing for the Over was 4/5, the 'Under' was 11/10 and the option to wager on 'Exactly 4 Stars' was 23/10. The prices remained stationary right up to when I last viewed them on the night of the event. 

The winning selection was 'Exactly 4 Stars'.

Chris Jericho's successful AEW World Heavyweight Championship defence over Cody was rated four-and-a-half stars by Dave Meltzer. 

Kambi set the line at four-and-a-quarter, so the winning selection was the 'Over'. As you can see below, the market had been available since September 16th. The eventual winner was backed from 6/5 into 11/10 initially, but it then began to drift out in the week leading up to showtime. It was available at 13/10 for the last couple of days before the event due to people siding with the 'Under'.

AEW Championship
O 4.25
E 4.25
U 4.25
16/9 2:00AM
6/5
21/10
4/5
28/9 1:10PM
11/10
43/20
17/20
3/11 8:40PM
6/5
9/4
3/4
4/11 7:30PM
5/4
23/10
7/10
7/11 7:00PM
13/10
"
4/6
9/11 8:00PM
"
"
"

The final bout on the card, which was the lights out match between Jon Moxley and Kenny Omega, was not received particularly well by Meltzer. Despite this, he felt it had good storytelling and execution. Plus, and this is what I felt, it would have to be graded along the lines of the Mankind versus The Undertaker Hell in a Cell match from the 1998 King of the Ring. 

Foley versus Taker was given four-and-a-half stars and, when asked by a friend last night how I thought Meltzer would grade Moxley/Omega, I guessed it would be in a similar ballpark to the rating of the 1998 match. 

It was a perfect guess, if I say so myself, as Saturday's match was indeed given 4.50 from Meltzer.

As for Kambi - its line was set at 4.25 Stars, so those who may have backed the 'Over' would have had their bets settled in their favour.

The selection opened as a 3/4 favourite and was 11/20 for the last nine days the market was available. 

Moxley .vs. Omega
O 4.25
E 4.25
U 4.25
16/9 2:00AM
3/4
23/10
23/20
3/10 11:30PM
7/10
"
5/4
10/10 4:30PM
4/6
23/10
13/10
31/10 3:45PM
11/20
23/10
6/4
9/11 8:00PM
"
"
"


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