Monday, 26 August 2013

How The Underdogs Were Bet On During SummerSlam Sunday



Here is a graph detailing how the betting went on the underdogs in the three main SummerSlam matches in the hours leading up to their respective match time.

Odds in European format, time in EST

As you can see, there was a fair bit of money being bet on Christian and John Cena during the day. An argument could be made that this had something to do with the memo being sent around that some of the match finishes were being rebooked so as to confuse the leak that is responsible for Dolphin1925's spoilers.

The Reddit user claimed that changes to the results were being made 'on a whim' in his first message to the Internet on Sunday. A number of days ago, I speculated that this post may have resulted in late betting being made on some of the underdogs. The graph points to this possibility.

I also claimed that it was possible that those with the information that changes were being made during the day moved the odds mid-way through the day. It had been reported that no WWE employees made any bets in the days leading up to the event. I'm not here to cast doubt on that, I'm speculating that the word must have reached some people because the odds did begin to fall at the same time.

In betting, money often lands on the underdogs in the last few hours in any sporting event meaning either the odds or the pointspread/total lines are readjusted. CM Punk is the exception in the example above. Punk remained a high priced underdog throughout the day with only a small dip  (coincidentally around the time of Dolphins1925's post) before his odds started to drift back out as the show went on.

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