In the two hours before a World Wrestling Entertainment pay-per-view, the odds would make a huge change (either a swing in favour of the underdog or making the favourite unbackable at an incredible price) and we would know for certain who would win as these shifts were enough of an indicator.
We still see these patterns. However, in some cases, we get them sooner than we have become accustomed to.
The, what I will call from now on, 'smart money' - wagers that moved the odds signicantly- came in on Friday night. The best example to highlight this thought is to examine how betting on the World Tag Team Championship match at the Royal Rumble pre-show went.
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| Odds in European format |
The Rhodes Btothers had opened up as clear favourites when the wagering markets opened in midweek.
Their odds started to drift though the day. By the following morning, they were underdogs at +125 (2.25 EU, 5/4 UK) which isn't an overwhelming price. The New Age Outlaws, who had opened up around +180, were available at -175 (1.57 EU, 4/7 UK). Even though the book had established a definitve favourite and outsider, they were still close.
When I made my final check on Friday evening (11pm GMT) the odds on the Rhodes Brothers had made a slight drift to +155 with the Outlaws on -195.
Then the smart money came in.
Within nine hours, the Rhodes Brothers' odds had shot up to +1000 (11.00 EU, 10/1 UK) with the eventual winners, and former underdogs in the betting period, heavily favoured at -2000 (1.05 EU, 1/20 UK).
The Outlaw bettors never looked back.
It wasn't just the pre-show odds that had huge shifts from Friday evening smart money wagers.
Randy Orton went from -475 to -2000 and Brock Lesnar saw his move -11,000 to an even more unbackable -50,000.
Orton and Lesnar winning weren't shock calls. That's why the Rhodes Brothers drop from favourites to slight outsiders to giant underdogs is enough to see that the insiders knew where to bet.
The story of this betting period is that most of the smart money came in on a Friday, just like it did for Tables, Ladders & Chairs in December. However, the bettors did decide to leave the outcomes of each main event alone, possibly because the final decisions weren't set in stone.
It will be interesting to see if the pattern continues next month.
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