Dolphins Said, The Results Read : WWE Battleground 2014 Edition

It's time to take another look at the Twitter user Dolphins1925's monthly 'spoilers'. In this post, I'll be analysing what he announced during last night's WWE Battleground and compare the tweets with what the betting odds were around that time.

Dolphins started off the evening by claiming that he would be 'posting the results before each individual match'. This immediately raised a red flag as it indicated to yours truly that he was watching the betting price fluctuations as the show was on-going. This has been one of the things I have taken particular interest in throughout the time I have maintained this blog.

In the aforementioned tweet, the Reddit/Twitter user produced the following pick for the pre-show:

Cameron defeats Naomi in preshow.

Cameron entered the match as a -750 favourite following bets between the hours of 11pm and 12am, which saw her go from +320 to -420 in one fell swoop. The late betting did not just occur in this match as you'll soon see.

His first 'spoiler' for the main show began:

The Usos will defeat Wyatt Family.

The Usos had originally opened as underdogs when Battleground 2014 betting markets were initially published over the weekend. However, in the final couple of hours before the pay-per-view was to commence the odds made a huge shift. The Usos were then installed as favourites, a role they played right through to the start of their match. At the time of the tweet, they were around -530 (1.19 EU, 10/53 UK).

AJ Lee will defeat Paige.

The already favourite AJ Lee saw her price shorten even further in the latter stages of betting. Between the key hours of 11pm and 12am BST, the price moved from -1050 to -6000. At the time of the match she was still favourite albeit with a slightly improved line of -4500 (1/45 UK).

Jack Swagger will defeat Rusev.

This 'spoiler' is still puzzling. When Battleground betting markets were first posted on Saturday, Swagger was a -600 favourite. He remained in that role for around two hours, if that. He then drifted out to +400. At 9pm BST yesterday evening, Rusev was -600 and then - when the big movers came in a number of hours later - he was in the 300 range. This may have misled Dolphins (or the person alleging to be his source) into believing that the movement was pointing to a Swagger win. In a way, it was but it wasn't enough to raise curiosity. There wasn't a huge shift to point to a Swagger victory as had been the case in The Usos' victory. Swagger remained underdog and was +320 (4.20 EU, 16/5 UK) at the start of his match with Rusev priced at -460 (1.22 EU, 5/23 UK). In my opinion, this was nothing but a poor job of reading the lines.

Following the Rusev victory, Dolphins took to Twitter once more apparently miffed that his spoiler was incorrect. He chose to hand out all the winners he was given and turned in for the night. Here's what he wrote:

No words. The other selections given to me were John Cena, The Miz, Bray Wyatt and Dean Ambrose.

In order:

John Cena

The current WWE World Heavyweight Champion opened as a -2000 favourite when the markets opened on Saturday. The key indicator that he would walk out as winner of the main event came in the period where the influx of apparent smart money moved the number. In the time where the wagers were placed, Cena went from -530 to -6000 (1/60 UK).

The Miz

The lines I am using are from the 5Dimes Casino & Sportsbook. The book published odds on two outcomes of the WWE Intercontinental Championship battle royal - 'Cesaro Wins' or 'Field Wins'. The 'Field Wins' option had opened as an underdog and remained that way for most of the betting period but did slowly start turning before the late money came in. At 11pm BST, the odds on anyone but Cesaro were -140 but went to -600 once the smart money came in. The line had shorted further at the start of the pay-per-view as it was -900 (1/9 UK) at 1am BST.

The Betfair odds that were available to customers living in the State of New Jersey had individual pricing for the match. The Miz started off at 14/1 . I was unable to follow the movement there as my location restricted me from doing so. However, a look at the British bookmaker odds does show that The Miz was moving in in the latter part of the betting round.

When the first British/Irish sportsbook - Paddy Power - published odds for the battle royal, Miz was 10/1. By late Sunday evening, he had became the second-favourite at 3/1 (4.00 EU, +300 US).

When the money started coming in on 'The Field', the logical decision would have been to look at the next person on the board. That's what I would have done, anyway.

Bray Wyatt

The Chris Jericho win could be considered surprising from a betting perspective, unless you looked a little bit closer. Wyatt opened as a -1200 favourite with his opponent out at +600. The odds tended to fluctuate throughout the weekend but both wrestlers did not reverse roles. Despite being an underdog, there was a slight dip for Jericho between 9pm and 11pm where he went from +700 to +220 (3.20 EU, 11/5 UK). He drifted back out to +650 by midnight and was +700 at the time the show started. It had shortened slightly to +600 by match-time.

Here's how Bray Wyatt's odds moved in the same timeframe:

9pm: -1500 US, 1.07 EU, 1/15 UK
11pm: -300 US, 1.33 EU, 1/3 UK
12am: -1350 US, 1.07 EU, 2/27 UK
1am: -1500 US, 1.07 EU, 1/15 UK

Dean Ambrose

This was a bit of a mess, wasn't it? Seth Rollins was awarded the win via forfeit and -as per the betting rules - whatever is written on WWE.com goes. The official record states that Rollins was the victor, so 5Dimes paid out to punters that had backed him to win. There's nothing much to read in the odds as they did not change much at all. Rollins opened as an underdog and then became favourite on a number of occasions through the weekend. At 9pm BST,  Ambrose and Rollins were priced at -130 and -110 respectively. When the possible smart money moved other lines, this match appears to have been left alone. Between the hours of 12am and 1am, Ambrose was backed from -170 to -320 (1.31 EU, 5/16 UK) with Rollins going from +130 to +240 (3.40 EU, 12/5 UK) in the same period. I'm confident that this change was regular bettors backing the favourite and nothing more.

That's five correct out of a possible eight once again fuelling the belief that the Twitter/Reddit user is simply using the betting odds to announce as possible spoilers.


Odds taken from: The 5Dimes Sportsbook, Betfair and Paddy Power