Sunday 18 January 2015

Handicapping Lesnar & Cena/Rollins

It did not take long for wrestling fans to move the odds for next Sunday's WWE Royal Rumble title match on the 5Dimes Sportsbook website.

When I initially noticed the market for the WWE World Heavyweight Championship triple threat match was open, Brock Lesnar was lined up as a -190 favourite with the other option, 'John Cena or Seth Rollins wins', out at +150.

Since then, the money has evidently gone the way of Cena/Rollins, despite Lesnar still relatively favoured by the book to retain.

The Cena or Rollins option is available at -115 with Brock Lesnar -125.

There are a few scenarios that could play out to close the match.

Firstly, the company could stick with the route they began in the summer; Brock Lesnar retains and goes on to face the winner of the Royal Rumble at WrestleMania XXXI.

The only hurdle in that narrative is Lesnar has not signed a new deal to remain with the company beyond WrestleMania season.This might leave WWE with no option but to have him drop the strap earlier than anticipated.

The 'Cena/Rollins' finishes could go one of three ways:

1. John Cena wins
2. Seth Rollins wins (In my opinion, this is unlikely)
3. John Cena wins & Seth Rollins cashes in his immediate title shot as Money in the Bank winner

In relation to this market, the storyline possibilities make the 'Cena/Rollins' a better choice.

Another thing strengthening the notion that 'Cena/Rollins' is possibly the right side is that a listing for an 8th March house show in Allentown, Pennsylvania had John Cena down as champion.  This obviously suggests that at one point, there was a plan for Lesnar to drop the title.

We'll get a better idea how this will play out as we head closer to the show.

Odds correct as of 14:47 GMT.

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