Answering The Jericho & MITB Comments

I had three comments waiting for me this morning in regard to the bets I have placed on Chris Jericho and whether I believe it's inside or fan money that has moved had moved his price down overseas. In this post, I'll address one of these comments.

Eric wrote:

I think what was happening on Bovada though was fans seeing such high odds for a superstar who's getting a lot of attention. I put $5 on Jericho at 75/1 before WrestleMania because I thought it was ridiculous that he was that high. I think fan bets pushed Jericho down. If it was insiders I think we would have seen him end in negative territory or Bovada taking it down due to lots of max bets on a single person. When we see insiders betting on 5dimes you see them push out to -600 to -1000 range usually. I know it's a greater fall from +7,500 but you'd think if lots of max bets were coming in on Jericho from insiders you would see a number lower then the 33:1 odds that he still was. I sure hope he wins and I think he has a chance too but I don't think there is smart money out there yet. 

Firstly - most, but not all, of Eric's comments are in line with what I had already written in the post titled 'Jericho To Win MITB 2016?' where I made a case for and against Jericho's price being a sign of inside money.

For what it's worth, Jericho's number fell somewhere between April 12th and May 1st. I have been told that the decision on the MITB winner was made either before or slightly after WrestleMania but it was stressed to me that the decision might have been changed due to the brand split announcement.

I slightly disagree with the notion that 'if it was insiders..we would have seen him end in negative territory or Bovada taking it down'. The latter has happened in the past, how are we to know if this isn't the case here now that the market has been closed? As for the former - well, I have a number of examples where selections have fallen into favouritism  elsewhere but not for a longer period of time at Bovada. From the top of my head:

- Big Show to win the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal at WrestleMania 31 was still available at stronger odds when he was favourite at 5Dimes.com.
- Kalisto to defeat Alberto Del Rio at this year's Royal Rumble didn't move when people were hitting him elsehwere


That's two examples. I have one more and it's from this year's WrestleMania. Once you see this:

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And then compare it to the six runners in the Money in the Bank:

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You might see something similar. 

The favourite and the most likely winners' numbers didn't move in the Intercontinental Championship match at WrestleMania while Zack Ryder's was slowly dropping below the radar. There's a similar pattern in play with Chris Jericho's odds and I am not going to ignore or discount the apparent interest in a Chris Jericho victory when it is reminiscent of the IC market from Mania. 

I wouldn't be doing this right if I didn't draw a conclusion from the most recent example and the data in front of me.