Monday 3 October 2016

Comment Bag : 3 October 2016

A very special comment bag today as this was left for me via direct message on Twitter and I wanted to address this publicly:

I have noticed you putting blogs out about betting on WWE etc. Please can you remove all this stuff? You do know LADBROKES have removed WWE betting from site now? You are giving the bookies the dream information they need to actually stop offering betting on that event. Please can you delete all this stuff you are putting up about line movements, script changes and writers that bet etc... We make money from this and still want to. Your information is now a roadblock in my earnings and I'm sure you want to make free easy money. Imagine all the people did what you're saying.. YOU are destroying something special at the moment.
Let me know if you agree and will remove mate. Cheers

After asking if the message was from him (I wanted to make sure he wasn't copy-and-pasting something somebody else had written), I was told that it was and that there were 'a few others' who were 'VERY pissed at this being leaked'.

Before getting to my response, I think it's worth acknowledging that this gentleman has followed me since the summer, so is a newcomer to what I do here. Judging by most of his message, it's safe to presume he doesn't regularly read this blog. Furthermore - it was only a couple of weeks ago that I took the time to explain to him how smart money works in that the oddsmakers/bettors follow the moves off-shore and adjust lines/wager accordingly. He thanked me for the assist, so today's message was out of left field.

Firstly, if anybody thinks that I am the problem or ruining anything, then they are very much mistaken. I am only following the odds as they move and writing what is happening. I am not the only person who does this. Many others out there are doing the same thing. These other people? Punters and oddsmakers from other companies watching how the markets move. All I am doing is 'reporting' the facts, if you can call it that.

When I monitor off-shore price changes, I do so to highlight where the moves are coming in. The information isn't only for bettors, it's for people interested to see if potential smart money has been placed on the eventual winners of matches.

As for being the source of 'dream information' for bookies - that's quite out there. In the weeks, days or even hours leading into a PPV, I may share an idea on how I believe a match will go. Sometimes these opinions turn out right, other times they don't. Just like with any other kind of betting. I have a hard time trying to reason with the logic that my ideas are forcing oddsmakers to adjust their lines heavily. I've already established that it's the off-shore moves that are forcing prices to change. The bookmakers aren't reacting to any of my blog posts. They don't need me for that!

I'm confident that anyone with a shred of sense will understand this already.

So, to answer the question and later threat (he told me it would be a 'Bad Move' if I didn't delete my content), it should go without saying that I will not be removing anything that I have put my time and effort into.

24 comments:

  1. Good on you David. If bookies have any people that specialise in WWE betting (and I'm sure some do) they will be looking at a lot bigger, important changes that effect WWE betting, then just your blog. I'm sure there's a bookies or two out there that keep an eye on your blog, but places like PWinsider, as an example, tend to reveal more stuff then this blog, so if anything they would be paying more attention there. Sounds like a complete idiot, especially with the threats.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I love this blog and check in several times a day, so if some bookmaker remove their WWE market because of it then so be it. It wouldn't be the same just betting without the enjoyment of the analysis and banter going on here.

    I am devastated that bwin/PartySports decided to close up shop, but I choose to believe that Mr Taylor was not the culprit.

    As far as odds shifting, we've seen the pendulum swung a few times because of the info shared here, so let's not kid ourselves. One I remember was when I read some obscure rumor that Daniel Bryan would be a mystery partner and shared it here. Within minutes of Mr Taylor making a post about it, the odds on Mr Bryan had plummeted. The origin of the rumor later turned out to be pure fiction, so I can only assume it was the post here that triggered the odds drop.

    I believe the bookmakers are watching this blog like a hawk.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The odds can fall by people reading what is written here and then betting on the selection. It doesn't necessarily mean the oddsmakers are reacting to what is written.

      Delete
    2. Regarding the Bryan odds. It was for Night of Champions 2015 and I wrote this:

      'I can't see it happening, but I wouldn't be surprised if he is'.

      It's in this post

      I also gave out wrote that Jericho 33/1 from bwin was enticing and the odds did drop for him.

      Thor, have you confused Bryan with Baron Corbin because that weekend had the fake Photoshop of a WWE.com article that announced him as being the third member of that team. That's what forced his price down. It had nothing to do with anything I wrote. In fact, I noted how fake it looked.

      The Corbin Fake

      Delete
  3. http://www.wweleaks.org/2015/10/daniel-bryan-in-los-angeles-hiac-2015-betting.html

    Off the board it went :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, the time I introduced you to Donnie Brasco!

      Delete
  4. I think that you could do without referring to 'smart/insider money' on a regular basis. Maybe you should use 'odds shifts' instead. This blog should adhere to the rules of kayfabe:-) Kayfabe for the pocket lol. But, in fairness, the blog is enjoyable. It can be a bit too transparent at times. But, good job.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I always use the term 'Odds Shifts' and only ever use the 'Smart/Insider' terminology for when I am completely sure about the moves or, as is often the case, when I review how betting went and try and pinpoint when the money came in.

      Delete
  5. Why even use those terms in the first place! We all enjoy WWE betting and we should try to prolong it as much as we can. Ladbrokes and Bwin have pulled out. Betfair are shading in their odds. Using terms like the aforementioned isn't exactly favourable to the entire cause. The devil is in the details!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because I was writing about those terms long before Ladbrokes, Bwin and Betfair even got into WWE betting.

      Delete
    2. By the way, the 'Ladbrokes pulling out' thing is a panic at this moment. The company has taken its Rumble odds down numerous times in the past and have republished them.

      Delete
  6. Just food for thought:-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I won't be changing my approach in how I cover this.

      Delete
  7. Its just stupid to try stop information spread. Also i dont think that this blog can be reason of removed WWE betting from Unibet.

    And again, we have here in-play specials for PPV-s, so blog help develop WWE betting

    ReplyDelete
  8. David, I enjoy your comments and fact reporting for the various WWE events. Keep up the good work. Regards, Joe

    ReplyDelete
  9. Here here!! I find your site super interesting and I've learnt a lot from you in a very short space of time.

    Ignore the haters and if there's a next time there's absolutely no need to defend yourself in such a way.

    As you've stated you report what's already happened and provide insightful commentary into your views on prop bets.

    What's your twitter handle? I want to follow

    ReplyDelete
  10. Please don't stop. This is the single most useful site I've used for WWE betting. You've helped me win money, and the times I've lost are because of last minute WWE booking changes. I really doubt your website contributed to those. So again please don't stop, your work is read and appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
  11. how could i miss this?
    this guy is so wrong,David just voices his opinion and observe as some of us line movements ,dont give a damn about this guy.
    And thanks a lot for this very site ,it rocks!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. What do we got over here??
    Couple haters?

    Forget the haters.
    Thanks for all you do

    ReplyDelete

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