SummerSlam 2017 And Smart Money

In the couple of days since I have been away, I have read a few articles on wrestling news sites that claim there was no smart money placed on the matches at SummerSlam 2017 and that WWE may have stopped the leak.

This belief isn't accurate at all.

As per usual, hindsight is a good game when it comes to seeing when smart money landed on the bouts from the previous PPV. I admit, there were some matches on the night where the eventual winners closed as outsiders, but - to say that there was no smart money - is totally off.

In this post, I'll try and point out where some of the matches might have been hit. I've placed the winners in different groups of where I feel (or now know) where the smart money came in. These categories are: Unsure, Sunday Night, Sunday Morning, Late Saturday to Early Sunday.

Unsure

This group consists of five winners. I ranked them as 'Unsure' because it's difficult to determine when, or if, they were backed for a variety of reasons.

Brock Lesnar
Going in, Brock Lesnar winning the main event was one of the most obvious results of the night. The market had been available since the early hours of August 4th. Lesnar was a favourite throughout the entire betting period. There were times when 'The Field' or his three challengers were individually backed, but they never sent the champion out to underdog.

The table below shows how Lesnar was backed. Note that 'The Field' only realistically came into play on August 15th when the sportsbook put it up at +200 when Lesnar was a -280 favourite.

Date/Time	Lesnar	Field
4/8 4am	-120	-99999
4:45am	-145	"
7/8 9am	-165	"
8/8 4pm	-185	"
10/8 11pm	-225	"
11/8 11am	"	"
13/8 9am	"	"
14/8 8am	-290	"
15/8 7am	-280	+200
16/8 7pm	-210	+160
17/8 6am	-280	+200
10am	"	"
11pm	-350	+250
18/8 10:30am	-320	+240
6pm	-300	+220
19/8 2:25pm	-260	+180
6pm	-320	+200
9pm	"	+240
20/8 3:15am	-310	+230
9am	-400	+280
7pm	-300	+220
9pm	-390	+270
11pm	-330	+244
21/8 12:14am	-400	+280
3:00am	-490	+330
3:34am	-505	+335
3:37am	-515	+345
CLOSED	-530	+350

He was backed in the initial stages of betting and was seeing action in the minutes before the match.

Lesnar winning was telegraphed when the main event became a four-way. This was strengthened with Paul Heyman's threat that he and his advocate would leave WWE if the latter failed to win the match. That was too much of a giveaway, in my opinion. Fan and smart money would have been on this.

Finn Balor
On the topic of giveaways - Finn Balor losing to Bray Wyatt on the Monday before SummerSlam and then announcing he would be the Demon King was a double indication that he would win six days later. Which begs the question, why was Bray Wyatt backed in the early round of betting and the odds didn't cut more in favour of Balor at any other point that weekend?

Day and Time	Finn Balor	Bray Wyatt
SAT 3:54pm	-1,050	+550
SAT 6pm	-555	+365
CLOSED	-555	+365

Lesnar and Balor winning were the two obvious picks of the weekend where I'm concerned. If I had to think it through, I could sort of understand fans backing the other three stars in the main event if they were believing that Lesnar was going to drop the strap and go to UFC as Paul Heyman was trying to tease in the build up to the match. I can't see why anyone would back Wyatt with all the signs pointing to Balor being victorious under the Demon King gimmick.

AJ Styles
This is another market where the early money appeared to have landed on the eventual loser and stayed at the same pricing right up to the market's close.

Day and Time	AJ Styles	Kevin Owens
SAT 3:42pm	-600	+400
SAT 6pm	-400	+280
CLOSED	-400	+280

As you can see, Styles went from -600 to -400 within the first few hours of wagering as Kevin Owens was backed from +400 into +280.

With the idea that this match was another chapter leading to a potential Kevin Owens versus Shane McMahon inside the Hell in a Cell, I was surprised to see Owens backed. A win for Styles made the most sense as it would have allowed Owens to have a gripe with McMahon if he failed to win. Last night's episode of Smackdown furthered this route.

Sasha Banks
Betting opened for the WWE Raw Women's Championship match almost as soon as it was confirmed that Alexa Bliss would defend the strap against Sasha Banks.

Day and Time	Alexa Bliss	Sasha Banks
TUE 7am	-120	-120
THU 10pm	+115	-155
11pm	-120	-120
FRI 7am	+135	-175
6pm	+200	-280
11pm	+180	-260
SAT 8am	+250	-350
2:25pm	+155	-195
6pm	-185	+145
9pm	-260	+180
PPV  12:27am	-190	+150
CLOSED	-190	+150

The market stayed at -120 for a few days before the early money came in on the eventual winner, Sasha Banks. However, within an hour after moving in favour of the challenger, the odds for the champion were snipped.

It was a back-and-forth from there and that's why it's difficult to determine when the smart money landed.

It should be pointed out that the last sign of action was on a Sasha Banks victory as the price did drop from +180 to +150 while the pay-per-view was in progress.

Big Cass
I've had to put Big Cass in the 'Unsure' group because, just like with Finn Balor and AJ Styles, the odds for his opponent - the losing Big Show - fell.

Later in this post, you'll notice that the 3:15am visit on Sunday morning was an important time for some of the eventual winners. In this case, however, it was Big Show who was backed into +130 from +140. He had started out as an opening +300 underdog.

The market remained that way all the way through to its close as the match was about to begin.

Date/Time	Big Cass	Big Show
SAT 3:47pm	-420	+300
SAT 6pm	-180	+140
SUN 3:15am	-170	+130
CLOSED	-170	+130

For what it's worth, I didn't know what to make of the moves on Saturday evening. I was asked who I thought would win and - despite stating that Big Cass should really have won - a babyface in the shark cage and Big Show being beaten down on the Monday before led me to believe there was a slight chance of Show winning. It goes in 'Unsure' because the betting went the way of the eventual loser. Therefore, there's no definitive proof that there was smart money placed on this match. Unless there was a change of plan. There's no proof to point to this being the case especially with the early Saturday bettors going with Owens and Wyatt to win their matches.

Sunday Night

This category focuses on two selections that were backed in the hours leading up to the PPV. 

Randy Orton

The first wagers came straight in on Rusev. He went from -230 on Saturday evening and was -900 by 9pm BST that night. As you'll later find out, there were wagers placed late on Saturday and Sunday morning. However, nothing occurred in this market until Sunday night when Orton dipped from +500 into +350.

You can see in the table above that the highest price Orton was available at was the +500. He remained at this number for over a day before it was lowered as the Kick Off show was beginning. 

Orton won the match. The Sunday money was on him to do so.

The Usos

The Usos regaining the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship on the pre-show was, in my opinion, one of the surprises of the night. 

Day and Time	New Day	The Usos
SAT 3:15pm	-245	+175
SAT 6pm	-505	+335
SAT 9pm	-900	+500
CLOSED	-600	+400

The New Day opened as -245 favourites and ended up as short as -900 by 9pm BST that evening. From there, the market stalled right up to shortly before the match when The Usos entered as +400 outsiders.

It should be worth noting that The Usos price tumbling at this point could have been a reaction to the two pre-show matches ahead of this one having winners in The Miz/Miztourage and Neville that some may have considered upsets as they closed as outsiders.

In fact, it's best to get to the two other pre-show winners next...

Late Saturday to Early Sunday

This is the third category, but it's the most important indicator that smart money landed on at least four of the eventual winners. The money came in sometime between 11pm on Saturday night and when I visited the odds following NXT TakeOver in the early hours of Sunday. 

The Miz and the Miztourage

The trio of heels started off as -160 favourites but were pushed out to +160 within the first few hours.

Day and Time	Hardys and Jordan	Miz and Miztourage
SAT 3:15pm	+120	-160
SAT 6pm	-210	+160
SAT 9pm	-285	+205
SUN 3:15am	-210	+160
SUN 7pm	-270	+190
CLOSED	-270	+190

As I wrote a few times over the weekend, it made sense for The Miz and his partners to win the match because they had lost the previous match on Monday night. The only sign of action that came in on the eventual winners was in that period between 11pm and 3:15am. 

Neville

There was a flip in favour of Neville sometime between 3:15am and 3:55am on Sunday morning. 

As you can see in the table below, this was the only point in the entire betting period where Neville was backed but it was significant. 

Date/Time	Neville	Tozawa
SAT 3:15pm	+105	-145
SAT 6pm	+230	-310
SAT 9pm	+305	-425
SUN 3:55am	-160	+120
SUN 5pm	-140	+100
SUN 10pm	-110	-130
CLOSED	-110	-130

Going in, this was another match I felt could have gone either way. Neville had lost the Cruiserweight Championship on the most recent episode of Raw, so it had 50/50 booking working in its favour. The opposite arguments could have been that it may have been too soon to have Tozawa drop the strap and that - because the match was on the Kick Off - the babyface winning may have been worth a look. This could have been why Tozawa was backed by fan money both coming out of the gate and in the hours leading in to the event.

Natalya
The WWE Smackdown Women's Championship market was another market that had interesting betting activity in the early hours of Sunday morning. It sent the challenger from the +510 she was at 11pm on Saturday into -315 by 3:15am.

As you can see in the table below, Naomi opened as a -280 favourite. She was backed instantly moving to -930 by 9pm BST.

Date/Time	Naomi	Natalya
SAT 3:30pm	-280	+200
SAT 6pm	-530	+350
SAT 9pm	-930	+510
SUN 3:15am	+235	-315
SUN 12:15pm	-115	-125
PRE-SHOW 10pm	-145	+105
PRE-SHOW 10:30pm	+100	-140
PPV 12:17am	+150	-190
CLOSED	+150	-190

Following the drop from +510 to -315 in the early hours of Sunday, the eventual winner was pushed out after Naomi was backed on Sunday afternoon.
Natalya's odds once again came down during the pre-show as she went from +105 into -140 and closed at -190. So, the favourite won, but the signs obviously point to the late-Saturday and early Sunday being the time when smart money landed.
Going in, I thought that Naomi would successfully retain. I was blinkered into believing that Naomi would be the champion that Carmella cashes her Money in the Bank briefcase on. I guess it's still possible in hindsight as the story coming out of the match was about how devastated Naomi was to lose the title. Naomi could be put in a position where she reclaims the strap only for Carmella to pull the rug out from under her. Time will tell on that one.

Jinder Mahal
The WWE Championship market first went live in the early hours of August 2nd as soon as it was confirmed that Shinsuke Nakamura would challenge Jinder Mahal for the strap.
The early money came in on the babyface as he fell from +165 to -160 in the first few hours that I tracked the market.
I believe the most significant betting on began when Mahal was pushed to +800. This is the point where his odds began to tumble.

It was only when I noticed the odds declining that I realised the theory I had that Shinsuke Nakamura would win the WWE Championship and bring the title to Osaka for WWE's show over in Japan in September was a dud.
The table above proves there was no last minute decision as has been reported once Mahal became a betting favourite. It's clear that the decision was made long before Sunday night.

Sunday Morning

After returning to the website hours after noticing the Cruiserweight Championship odds had flipped, I noted two other selections whose odds had shortened.

Dean Ambrose and Seth Rollins
The team of Ambrose and Rollins was -175 when I checked in at 3:15am. Then, by 9am, they had shortened to -230.

To be honest, this is a weak case because - based on how the match was built up - it was not a surprise to see the babyfaces overcome Sheamus and Cesaro for the WWE Raw Tag Team Championship. The only reason why this point might be important is because (a) it came close to the time after Neville's price plummeted and (b) John Cena was backed at near enough the same time. Which segues to...

John Cena

This is another result that surprised me. I had a feeling that, following his failed Money in the Bank cash-in on the Tuesday before Smackdown, that Baron Corbin would get something back from his match with Cena. How wrong I was.

I can't help but feel that Cena's odds moving in from +160 to +120 was when it was clear he was going to win. If I'm incorrect, then it would have been between 5pm and 7pm which eventually led to Cena and Corbin both entering their match as -120 pick 'ems.

So there you have it. You can see that, even though the odds didn't close in the -1,000 plus areas, cases can be made that some of the markets were hit by people with knowledge of the finishes. In most cases it's difficult to determine exactly when smart money came in, but to run with the narrative that it didn't is very far from what really happened.