Royal Rumble '23 Betting

I have had a few people either Tweet, message or email over the past few weeks asking me who I think will win both of the Royal Rumble matches this year. What I often try to do is wait until the final TV show of the Rumble build and then publish a post with my guesses.

I've decided to publish this one early. It doesn't contain firm and final guesses, though.

If you read Tuesday's Post, you would have seen me close it by stating I am fairly confident that one of the four favourites will win the men's Rumble. If one of those names wins, I would have been lucky enough to have caught their prices at the right time within the last eleven months. 

In tonight's post, I'll focus on the four favourites to win the men's battle royal and explain why I bet on them and how I feel about their chances as of today. Then, I'll briefly mention what has happened with my wagers on the women's Royal Rumble.

The names will be in order of appearance in the majority of betting markets starting with the favourite.

Cody Rhodes
Cody Rhodes was the third person I bet on. My wager was struck on the Tuesday following WrestleMania 38 after Rhodes declared his intention to win WWE's version of the World Championship - something his father didn't attain. 

A couple of months later, Rhodes was out with injury and it looked like he would make it back in time for the Rumble. 

The American Nightmare is now set to return tomorrow night after declaring for the battle royal a few weeks ago. 

He is obviously the betting favourite to win.

What makes me think there is a strong chance of Rhodes winning is how his return has been promoted on TV with rehab videos throughout January. It's very reminiscent of Triple H's January 2002 return from injury which culminated in a Royal Rumble win.

Who's got the book nowadays?

Sami Zayn

Do you remember the segment from a  Smackdown when Sami Zayn was with the Bloodline and was given the Honorary Uso t-shirt from Roman Reigns? Well, for some reason, I watched that episode on Saturday evening rather than when I usually catch Smackdown on a Saturday morning. 

It was that evening when I thought to myself to check out Zayn's odds to win the Rumble. He was 40/1 so I immediately had a gamble.

At the risk of copying something I read in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter this morning (and also heard Dave Meltzer say on Wrestling Observer Radio yesterday morning, for that matter), of the four names on this list, Sami Zayn is the person who should win the Rumble.

Zayn has been the MVP of the Bloodline storyline. His participation in it will obviously conclude with a match against Reigns.

Conveniently, the next WWE event - Elimination Chamber - is in Zayn's neck of the woods: Montreal. I cannot help but wonder if that is where we get the Reigns .vs. Zayn chapter in the Bloodline story. This could segue to Sami and Kevin Owens' much anticipated reunion. Somehow.

Or.

I dislike the idea of both major titles being defended at WrestleMania, but I have thought of a scenario where Cody Rhodes wins the Royal Rumble and there is a call back to the aforementioned promo from April where he pointed out his intention to challenge for the title his father never won. That would set Rhodes to focus solely on the WWE Championship leaving a challenge for the Universal Championship up for grabs inside the Elimination Chamber.

In the scenario I am conveying,  that would be where Sami Zayn secures a WrestleMania title shot and it would be done in front of a hometown audience.

The Rock

The Rock winning the Royal Rumble, and then going on to challenge his cousin - Roman Reigns - writes itself. 

It works even more when you factor in that Roman Reigns has been calling himself the 'Head of the Table' ever since the Bloodline faction began in 2020.

WrestleMania in Hollywood seemed like the perfect place. The main road to that destination was via the Royal Rumble.

I had been wagering on The Rock to win previous Royal Rumbles because I was confident that the match between the two cousins would happen.

Going by the reports, it looks like The Rock competing in this year's Royal Rumble is unlikely. I have cashed in most of my Rock bets for profit, but have left a few open just in case.

I can recall the moment where I believe the window closed on The Rock winning the Rumble. It was on January 9th when WWE sent out a press release stating that WrestleMania 39 had broken WWE's all-time gate record and pointed out it had done so 'despite having yet to announce a single match'. 

When I read that statement, I thought that it was pre-emptively taking away any credit Roman Reigns .vs. The Rock would have had for the event. 

It's possible to view it from an angle where some of those tickets were sold in hope of seeing Roman Reigns .vs. The Rock, but - to my eyes - it came across as a shot to Dwayne Johnson if the company knew he won't be available for Mania.

'Stone Cold' Steve Austin

In mid-November, I saw a video of 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin doing a workout and randomly wondered why he would share that clip. Then I started entertaining an idea of Austin winning the Royal Rumble in the Alamodome twenty-six years after his first Rumble victory.

I reasoned that, if The Rock were to be unavailable for WrestleMania, Austin would be a huge Plan B that could appease those wanting to see the Reigns/Rock dream match.

When the reports that WWE had pitched a match against Reigns to Austin surfaced earlier this week, Dave Meltzer noted that an initial pitch was for Austin to wrestle Brock Lesnar at Mania. Then came the one for Austin to take on Reigns.

This past Monday, Brock Lesnar returned to scupper Bobby Lashley's attempt to win the US Title from Theory and that would appear Lesnar/Lashley is going to be the program heading into WrestleMania. But, what if the Lesnar/Lashley story is done with inside the Rumble match to segue into Austin and Lesnar having something moving out of the Royal Rumble and onto WrestleMania?

I'm aware that I'm not giving out a definitive suggestion as to who will win the men's Royal Rumble. Ideally, the payoff should be in Sami Zayn because he is the person I've seen on my TV almost every week leading into the Rumble. 

If you thought I had a difficult time with the men's Rumble, I have had a harder time pinpointing a firm guess for the women's Rumble.

My bets on the match have been scarce. Most are more or less done for before the event has even kicked off because one was for Sasha Banks and another was for Charlotte Flair, who will unlikely be in the match now because she is the current holder of the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship.

The main bet I have, which was 16/1 when the market was first installed, is Becky Lynch. I thought she had a chance of winning the Rumble to set up a match with Ronda Rousey for the WWE Smackdown Women's strap.

The Lynch .vs. Rousey match looks to be off the table for WrestleMania. It certainly looks unlikely for either of the two titles. 

I read a report last night which indicated that, a few months ago, the planned matches at WrestleMania were Bianca Belair .vs. Charlotte Flair and Ronda Rousey .vs. Rhea Ripley. I surmise the former was for Raw's strap and the latter was for the Smackdown belt.

If those news items are accurate (even though I don't get Ripley .vs. Rousey as it would have been heel .vs. heel), it would indicate that either Flair or Ripley have been pitched to win the Royal Rumble. 

Rhea Ripley became favourite as 2022 turned into 2023 and I've missed the boat. But, there is at least one reason why.

I didn't factor Ripley in as a potential Rumble winner because I envisioned her WrestleMania concentrating on what ever is (or was?) planned with Dominik and Rey Mysterio. 

It felt that having Ripley in a title program as well as contributing to the Mysterios' feud would be spreading her thin.

Referring to the notes I've made since February 2022, it looks like the best price I could have picked Ripley up at was 14s, so - if the bookies and punters are correct, and Ripley turns out to have been correctly positioned as the Rumble favourite  - I would have certainly missed out on a decent price.