What I have been doing of late is write about WWE event markets on the day of the show and then publish updates along the way. The plan, as of today, is to do this post now and then publish updates across the week. So, I'm more or less getting ahead by a week.
Some markets have yet to be published. Those will be covered along the way (if they see the light of day, obviously).
So, in order of appearance on the BetOnline website, we have:
Rey Mysterio .vs. El Americano Grande
BetOnline first published a market for the battle of the lucha legends earlier this week. I was quite surprised to see Chad Gable's alter-ego as the underdog when BetOnline sent across the odds for the new match. By the time I visited the site, the odds had been reduced.
Night 1's Main Event
Betting on what will be the main event of the show's first night began late last month with Roman Reigns priced as a -500 favourite followed by CM Punk at +300 and Seth Rollins at +350.
As you can see below, the betting has mainly sided with either Punk or Rollins with the former dropping into -300 by April 2nd before drifting back up to -200 (10th April) and then -190 (yesterday). Rollins, on the other hand, had fallen into +130 within the first day I began following the odds movements. He began to move out due to the money evidently coming in on Punk. However, the Rollins selection has since commenced with its decline. It was moved into +275 a week ago and was then cut into +200 on Thursday before another snip, this time into +175, yesterday.
Reigns has drifted from favouritism out to +250 due to the fluctuations for his opponents.
Night 2's Main Event
BetOnline installed a market for the Undisputed WWE Championship match shortly after the bout was confirmed. At the time, they listed the titleholder - Cody Rhodes - as a +150 underdog. His challenger, John Cena, was a -200 favourite.
To be frank, the market has been back-and-forth with Cena's odds shortening at some points followed by dips for the champion. Despite all those moves, the sportsbook has retained Cena as the favourite.
I surmise some of the Rhodes drops have been from punters watching TV and seeing Cena threaten to leave the company with the strap and figuring out the babyface has to stop that from happening on the biggest night of the wrestling year.
As of this week, the sportsbook lists John Cena at -210. A win for Cody Rhodes will pay out at odds of +150.
Women's World Championship
The market for Iyo Sky's Women's World Championship defence, in a three-way with Bianca Belair and Rhea Ripley, was first installed earlier this week with Bianca Belair a -105 favourite over Sky (+120) and Ripley (+200).
Sky has remained at +120.
World Heavyweight Championship
BetOnline first began to accept wagers on Gunther's World Heavyweight Championship defence against 2025 Royal Rumble winner - Jey Uso - in February.
Uso had been installed as a -3,000 favourite over the +800 for the titleholder.
Looking at the market, it's clear that some gamblers have taken the odds for Gunther to win. His price, after moving out to +1,2000 within its first couple of days, fell into +400 across almost a fortnight.
It has since risen and dropped again. The most recent change has seen the champ move into +350.
Uso is currently -600.
WWE Women's Championship
Just like the betting for the men's World Heavyweight Championship, BetOnline created a market for the WWE Women's Championship market shortly after it was confirmed who the 2025 Women's Royal Rumble winner would challenge at Mania with Charlotte Flair opting to take on Tiffany Stratton.
Most of the adjustments have sided with the titleholder with Stratton's price dropping from +150 into near favouritism between February 18th and 23rd. Despite moving up slightly, Stratton's odds have once again dropped where she is currently -110 to Flair's -130.
Naomi .vs. Jade Cargill
The market for this grudge match was published last weekend with Jade Cargill priced as a -600 favourite over the +350 for Naomi. On Monday evening, I noticed the sportsbook had dropped Cargill's price into -700 and, as a result, Naomi had been moved to +400.
By the following day, the market had returned to its initial pricing with Naomi moved back into +350.
Sin City Street Fight
On last night's Smackdown, it was confirmed that the Damian Priest versus Drew McIntyre match would be a 'Sin City Street Fight'.
Opening earlier this week, the betting had McIntyre as a -175 favourite to Priest's +135. Apart from one instance which saw the underdog backed into +200 from +300, all of the adjustments have sided with McIntyre. He currently rests at -1,500. A decision for Priest, which would be a reversal of their impromptu match at last year's WrestleMania, is currently +600.
WWE Intercontinental Championship Fatal 4-Way
Here's how it went down in regards to this match: I received an email from BetOnline on Tuesday afternoon with the prices of the latest markets. I was drawn to this particular market because I was keen to see how it would be priced up.
What I was looking for was whether the bookmakers ranked Dominik Mysterio how I would. He was not favoured. In fact, BetOnline listed him in third with a price of +750. Far too long, in my opinion.
By the time I was able to get to my PC to create the tables for my tracking, I noticed Dominik's odds had dropped into +400. They had then been backed into +150 later that evening and had dropped into favouritism by the following morning.
The reason why I have been keen to see Dominik's markets is because the storyline has seen him more or less sneak into a match for the IC Title. Mysterio's Judgement Day leader - Finn Balor - has been laser-focused on winning the strap, so - to me - it makes for a great story if Dominik were to leave this match with the belt and cause some tension between he and Balor.
Going by the betting, others are of the same opinion.
Penta had opened as a -175 favourite with the current champion - Bron Breakker - in second at +125. Balor was +800.
As of this morning, Balor's price is at +550 after dropping from +600 overnight. Dominik has moved up to -200 from -175 and Penta is +175. The champ is currently in third at +350.
WWE US Championship
BetOnline's market for the WWE US Championship match is another which was published last weekend. Going by the betting, it appears the punters are siding with LA Knight to retain because his price lowered from +550 into +400 between Sunday and Monday.
Fatu, who started at -1,000, remains a favourite but is now up to -700.
And that's all for now. There are no markets for the tag matches that have been recently added to the card. Nor is there one for AJ Styles versus Logan Paul.
The 'Who Will Randy Orton Face at WrestleMania 41?' special I wrote about in YESTERDAY'S POST has also been taken off the board. I noted last night that Nick Aldis was the odds-on favourite, but - going by Smackdown - I surmise Solo Sikoa, who had been +400, could take Kevin Owens' spot on the card.
In a note about that market, the sportsbook had accepted at least one wager on Carmelo Hayes because his price had dropped from +2,000 into +1,500.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for reading this post. Please note: All comments are moderated and will be published or rejected at the blog owner’s discretion.
Summer 2020 Update:
Due to changes with the blogging platform (not getting notified of new comments), I have had to close the comment section. Until I find a remedy, you can reach out on Twitter (@WWELeaksDotOrg)
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.