Another Look Over The Draft Matchbet Odds

It has been a little over a month since I looked at a special market for the upcoming WWE Draft where customers can bet on the 1st of the Listed Participants To Be Drafted. Since that time, we've seen two new WWE Champions crowned and the top dog  - Roman Reigns - suspended for thirty days. This must mean there has been some adjustments to the prices right?

Right!

In this post, I'll look back over the market and point out the differences in prices and compare my initial thoughts to how I would tackle these markets today.

To begin, I'll quickly explain how these bets work. The oddsmakers have compiled prices for two wrestlers in each bracket and you have to bet on the wrestler you believe, of the two, will be drafted first. There's also a special with three runners (The ex-members of The Shield). The same rule applies - the bookies will pay out on the first of the three to be selected.

Roman Reigns 13/10 or Dean Ambrose 11/20

Back on June 3rd, I wrote 'You'd have to be a lunatic to pick Ambrose to be selected before Reigns'. Now who's the lunatic? To be fair, I am not of the opinion that the WWE Champion should not be in the draft. However, if he is, then Ambrose has to go ahead of Roman Reigns. I'm unsure this is how it will go, though. I really do think they'll try to pull the wool over our eyes by claiming the world champion will bring the title across the brands until the time they split the title up.

For what this is now worth, Reigns had opened at 1/10 and Ambrose was out at 19/4.

Roman Reigns 7/5 or Seth Rollins 1/2

This one has flipped totally as it initially had Rollins 7/5 and Reigns 1/2. I gave out Reigns as the one to pick. My instinct is telling me he's still worth a play here. What better way to wind up Rollins than to have the suspended Reigns picked ahead of him? He spent the opening of last Monday's Raw taking a shot at Reigns' for his violation. Don't forget, Reigns will still be serving his ban at the time of the draft, so having him picked ahead of Rollins could set off the most recent champion ahead of the triple threat match a few days later.

Seth Rollins 17/20 or Dean Ambrose 17/20

In June, when Rollins was 1/7, I wrote 'I like Rollins, but I don't like the odds'. Ambrose - who was 15/4 - has obviously dropped in price now. As noted, I'm reluctant to suggest Ambrose because I think they won't have him in the draft.

If he is in, then Ambrose should win this. If he isn't the bet will be declared void, so that's something to consider.

Dean Ambrose 11/10 or Roman Reigns 4/1 or Seth Rollins 3/4

Another one that I am reluctant to consider. I wasn't comfortable backing any of the runners here in June as they had given Reigns 1/2 (Ambrose was 5/1 and Rollins was 7/5). I overlooked the market because I could have chosen Reigns 1/2 only against Ambrose (7/5) in a head-to-head. I'm ignoring it again because I think this will end up being deemed void.

Roman Reigns 2/1 or John Cena 1/3

The odds for Reigns have moved out from 18/25. Cena's have dropped from EVENS. I am tempted to still go with Roman Reigns. If the company stayed its course by still booking the Battleground main event knowing that Reigns would be absent for almost all of the promotion for the event, I can absolutely still see him being selected near the top. Whether he'll go higher than Cena is a tough call, but 2/1 might be worth a speculative punt.

John Cena 13/20 or Seth Rollins 11/10

I went with John Cena in June's post. I still have a feeling it'll be him. The betting is also pointing to Cena as both options were 17/20 a month ago.

John Cena 2/5 or Randy Orton 7/4

No change here. Orton is looking to return within the next couple of months. If he isn't drafted, this will end up being voided.

AJ Styles 1/2 or Finn Balor 7/5

In June, when Styles was 18/25, I wrote that - if they want to make him a top heel on whichever brand - he should go early and noted that Finn Balor (11/10) not being drafted will end up voiding the market. Now that we're a month removed from then, I am now slightly leaning on Balor being the one to pick here. I have stuck to the opinion since earlier on this year that Balor will not be brought up to the main roster no earlier than Money in the Bank. That show has passed. His NXT match against Shinsuke Nakamura will air on July 13th. Moving to the main roster, via the draft, a week later makes total sense. This might be one of the best options on the board, in my opinion.

AJ Styles 2/5 or Kevin Owens 7/4

I chose Styles in June. He was 18/25 back then. Owens was even money. This should be closer than the odds reflect.

Brock Lesnar 7/5 or Seth Rollins 1/2

Lesnar will be coming off his UFC 200 fight against Mark Hunt. In June, Lesnar was 6/5 and I wrote that I was 'intrigued with taking Lesnar due to the price on offer', His odds have improved, so I'm still on the bandwagon. WWE will try to capitalize on what ever happens this Saturday. If he wins, I would't even be surprised to see him be the number one overall pick.

Brock Lesnar 17/20 or Roman Reigns 17/20

I couldn't 'see beyond Reigns' in June. Back then, he was 11/20 and Lesnar was 13/10. They're both at pick 'em now. It'll be interesting to see what happens to these prices in the days following UFC 200. All depends on how Lesnar fares.

Kevin Owens 11/20 or Sami Zayn 13/10

I went 'Owens!' in June when he was 2/5 and his opponent in this head-to-head was 7/4. The betting has evidently gone the way of Zayn.

What will be interesting to see is if the person who goes ahead of the other in the draft is booked to win or lose in their final battle a few days later.

Kevin Owens 1/2 or Bray Wyatt 7/5

June's write-up depended on either Owens or Wyatt winning the Money in the Bank briefcase. Neither man did. The betting has gone the way of Kevin Owens has he was installed at 13/20. Wyatt had been 11/10.

Bray Wyatt 13/20 or Cesaro 11/10

Cesaro has been backed down from 7/5 with Wyatt moving out from 1/2.  I was very high on Cesaro back in June when I wrote 'I'm leaning very heavily on Cesaro here. I'm placing a bet as soon as I hit 'Publish''.

Shinsuke Nakamura 18/25 or Finn Balor EVS

On one hand, I can see this market being pointless as I think Shinsuke Nakamura will remain on the NXT roster until at least the TakeOver show on SummerSlam weekend. With that said, remember who was in the main event of last year's TakeOver Brooklyn show? Kevin Owens. He had moved up to the main roster and was doing double duty at that point. If both are drafted - and I can't see it, but I'll play along for argument's sake - Balor is the better value. I'm passing, though.

For what it's worth, the punters have taken Nak as both wrestlers opened at 17/20.

Samoa Joe 13/20 or Finn Balor 11/10

Another market with a person remaining with NXT in Samoa Joe. I don't believe the NXT Champion will be included in the draft, so bets on him should end up being voided. For what it's worth, the betting opened with both wrestlers at 17/20, so the punters have gone with Joe. The only logic I can offer is that they acted before the result of the Joe/Balor cage match. Still, I thought it was a given that Balor was going to lose that one and was the person - of the two - most likely to move up to the main roster.

Samoa Joe 13/10 or Shinsuke Nakamura 11/20

Nakamura's odds have dropped from 13/20. With Joe moving out from 11/10. Both are scheduled to headline the NXT TakeOver show on the weekend of SummerSlam 2016. With Joe being the NXT Champion, I still can't see him being eligible here. This market will more than likely end up being voided out.

These markets tend to be taken down before Raw and won't be up again for another few days. So, if you want to have a bet on them, I recommend doing so ASAP. There are still two weeks before the draft, so I'm hoping we find out about Dean Ambrose as it will make this thing easier to handicap.

The prices were correct as of 12pm BST and were taken from 888Sport.com. Follow this link to view a list of other sportsbooks with these markets and prices.