Comment Bag : 25 August 2016

I had quite a few comments this week. Most of them are concerning the 'upset' from SummerSlam.

Brian left this early on Monday morning:

This was the first WWE event I've ever watched. Can someone explain how such a massive upset happens (regarding the Carmella .vs. Bell tag team match)? The odds swung massively in Carmella's favor right before the match started. Wouldn't that imply someone has insider info on the outcome?

I'm not complaining since I got lucky and bet on Natalya's team. I'm just curious how these massive shifts and upsets happen.

As I stated, there are a few comments like this, so apologies if I repeat myself throughout this post.

My response to Brian: A huge swing moving in right before the start of the PPV is almost certainly a sign that people with inside knowledge have backed the winner. This obviously was not the case in this example. You could point to Saturday night as the time when potential smart money landed on Natalya's team as they moved from +350 outsiders at 8:30pm then moved into -300 somewhere between 11pm BST and early Sunday morning. Their odds continued to drop throughout Sunday until that late move that must have panicked the sportsbook.

Keiran asked:

What would you say could be the reason Carmella's team was backed late on Sunday? Is there two different sets of  people that know the results of matches? One being, let's say writers even though probably not as far up as that or just tech people?

My response to Keiran: I think part - and it's a slight part - of the reason is because they kept Nikki on a bus to come out as a surprise. Apparently, they claim she was hidden away and neither her team-mates or opponents knew who the third member would end up being. Considering Bella was involved in the finish of the match, a few must have known. If other people were unaware of the third person, you could make a case that they made safety bets but this would be a presumption on my part.

As for the final part - without stating too much, there's enough out there to suggest that the wagering goes further than you think. Disco Inferno is on record as saying that as soon as the TNA booking meetings ended, he would be on the phone to a cadre of people with their betting accounts opened to place wagers on TNA results. If it happened there, it would be short-sighted of anyone to claim it doesn't happen elsewhere.

Another comment:

Maybe the first idea was Eva Marie's team lose and someone bet a lot of money on it. They 100% changed the match when Nikki's return was confirmed. But that was a very strange flip. Maybe a bookmaker mistake?

My response: It can't have been much to do with Eva Marie's suspension as the match odds weren't published until after it was announced she was out for thirty days. As noted above, the Saturday night money gives credibility to the notion that the team that won on Sunday were booked to win from the start. Can't see a reason why it could be a bookmaker mistake as the odds were shifted from one side to the other. The adjustment was intentional as it was the prices that were switched completely. They would have left them be otherwise.

BiggTerror asks:

Do you have records for all events from the past couple of years?

My response: Yes, from this weekend all the way back to SummerSlam 2013. All in a database that I refer to occasionally.
I also have a few early, but not closing, odds for some WrestleManias so am unable to add them to the database because I like to record the closing odds.

Finally, this came in from Anonymous:

Do you think Undertaker .vs. Cena will be the main event of Mania 33? On Betfair.com, Undertaker is currently 25/1 which I think is an amazing price considering Kalisto is 20/1. What do you think?

My response: I wrote about this in April  Back then, Undertaker was 10/1 and I wrote something along the lines of 'WWE wanted to have Undertaker versus John Cena at this year's show, so I'm betting on the possibility that they go with the match in 2017'.

There are a few things in the way. Firstly, is it a main event or will be the semi-main? If it had taken place at WrestleMania 32, I still think they would have put HHH versus Reigns as the main event. Now that we have two titles, I can see them going with a marquee match on top (just like this weekend). One thing that works against this is The Undertaker - he has said that he is done in the past and came back. One day he's going to say it and mean it.

I have been backing The Rock in this spot as well, but I absolutely like that they've pushed Taker to 25/1 now. It is worth a speculative punt.