Friday 31 March 2017

WrestleMania 33 Prop Bets : The Undertaker .vs. Roman Reigns

I have published a few posts through the day where I've covered the Kambi oddsmakers' props for WrestleMania. So far, I have looked at the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal, Seth Rollins .vs. Triple H and Bill Goldberg .vs. Brock Lesnar. I've now landed on The Undertaker .vs Roman Reigns markets.

Just like with the other prop posts, I'll go category by category..

Match Duration From Bell-to-Bell
The oddsmakers have set the over/under at around seventeen minutes. The 17:00 opened at 13/20, but has now lowered to 3/5. 16:59 or less is now 6/5, but started off at 11/10.
The punters have obviously sided with the over at this stage. There has been talk that this match could be given the main event slot, so that would point to it going long. 

Listed Occurrence To Happen During The Match
The traders have two specials in this section.  The odds haven't changed since this morning. They are:

Braun Strowman to interfere EVS

The Undertaker's entrance to exceed 5:00 minutes (from first gong to when at least one foot enters the ring)
Yes 9/10
No 4/5

If I was 100 percent sure Roman Reigns was losing this match, a run-in by Braun Strowman could have been one way to have Reigns do the job. I believe Reigns is winning this match, so I cannot see Strowman interjecting.
As for the entrance - I am not betting on this, but would probably look to go with it not exceeding five minutes.

Participant To Obtain The First 'Near' Fall
Just like with the other markets that I've covered today, this will pay out on the first person to have his opponent's shoulders down on the mat for at least a two-count before the count is stopped for whatever reason (interference, shoulders raised etc);
Roman Reigns is a 13/20 favourite to Undertaker's 11/10 and I think the oddsmakers have it right. I can see Reigns getting the first near fall in the match.

First Of Listed Moves To Be Performed In The Match
There are three head-to-heads in this section. They are:

Drive By (Roman Reigns) 3/4
Snake Eyes (Undertaker) 19/20

Top Rope Walk (Undertaker) 13/20
Superman Punch (Roman Reigns) 11/10

Tombstone Piledriver (Undertaker) 9/10
Spear (Roman Reigns) 4/5

Of the three, the one that stands out the most is the Superman Punch. I overlooked this when I was browsing the markets in the early hours of this morning, but was alerted to it by someone I chat to on Twitter (thanks Marc!). The reason why we believe the Superman Punch wins out over the Top Rope Walk is due to not knowing how much physically Taker can do nowadays. It's hard to picture him even attempting to climb the ropes after the way he has been in-ring lately.

Number of times listed move is performed
There are three markets in this section. 

Tombstone (Undertaker)
Zero 3/1
Exactly 1 EVS
2 or More EVS

Superman Punch (Roman Reigns)
4 Or More 17/20
3 Or Less 17/20

Chokeslam (Undertaker)
3 Or More 7/5
2 Or Less 1/2

The punters have backed the '2 or less' option in the Chokeslam market as it was originally 3/5. The 3 or more started off at 6/5.

Of all the markets on the board for this match, the only one I have a strong opinion on is the Superman Punch option over Taker's Rope Walk.

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