Thursday, 8 June 2017

Road To WrestleMania 34 Odds For June 8th

The Kambi oddsmakers' Road to WrestleMania 34 specials have been republished. I last wrote about looking through the markets last month, so it's time for an update.

There have been a number of changes made to the odds since May 12th's post. I'll share with you what I've found.

To Win Either The WWE Or Universal Championship
For those you who are new to this market, the oddsmakers have a long list of Raw and Smackdown stars. The customers can bet on any of the names they believe will win either the WWE or Universal Championship at any point from the wager being struck right up to the close of next year's WrestleMania. There have been names that have drifted, a few that have shortened and a couple that have stayed where they were.

Selections That Haven't Changed In Price
Kevin Owens 13/20
Samoa Joe 6/4

Selections That Have Drifted
Braun Strowman 1/3 to 3/5
Bray Wyatt 2/1 to 3/1
Dean Ambrose 2/1 to 13/4
Finn Balor 1/2 to 5/4
Seth Rolins 13/20 to 5/4
The Miz 2/1 to 3/1

Notice that it's all Raw talent? Makes sense considering the reports that Brock Lesnar is expected to retain the WWE Universal Championship all the way through to WrestleMania 34. You'll find, in the section below, that Roman Reigns' price has shortened. This is because the very same reports have Reigns as being the wrestler who will end Lesnar's run.

Selections That Have Shortened
AJ Styles 1/5 to 1/8
Baron Corbin 1/2 to 1/5
John Cena 1/2 to 1/3
Roman Reigns 1/10 to 1/13
Sami Zayn 2/1 to 7/4
Shinsuke Nakamura 1/4 to 1/5

In contrast to the 'Selections That Have Drifted' market, this is filled with Smackdown stars where the title could potentially change hands more than the Universal strap will between now and WrestleMania. 
The only non-Smackdown wrestler is Roman Reigns. As noted above, there is a rational reason why his price has been cut.

The oddsmakers have also published matchbets where two wrestlers oppose each other. The customer can choose one of three options: Wrestler A wins either title first, Wrestler B wins either title first or 'Neither Win Title', As with the long-list, there have been price changes made.

Braun Strowman .vs. AJ Styles
Braun Strowman has moved out from 2/1 into 5/2 in the market where he's opposing AJ Styles. Styles has been moved in from 2/5 into 3/10 with the 'Neither' option unchanged at 4/1.
Styles' odds moving in could be due to a number of factors. The main one being he's on the brand where there's more chance of a title change. 

Dean Ambrose .vs. Seth Rollins
Both Ambrose and Rollins are on Raw, where - as I've pointed out - Brock Lesnar could potentially be on a year-long run with the Universal Championship. It shouldn't be surprising to see the 'Neither Win Title' backed from 3/4 into 11/20. 
As a result, both Ambrose (7/2 to 4/1) and Rollins (6/5 to 6/4) have drifted.

Kevin Owens .vs. Sami Zayn
The New Face of America - Kevin Owens - was 13/20 to win either title ahead of Sami Zayn when I last checked in. This price has now been cut into 3/5. It isn't the only selection that has shortened in this market as the 'Neither' option has moved in from 7/4 to 33/20.
With two selections shortening, this obviously means the traders have increased Sami Zayn's price. He is now 3/1 - a slight change from 5/2.

Cesaro .vs. The Miz
Even though today's post is the first time I've gone through the markets extensively. I did record the numbers from Sunday. Back then, I noticed that Cesaro had moved out from 5s to 7/1 and The Miz from 5/2 to 7/2. The 'Neither Win Title' had been cut from 1/4 into 1/10. The new lines have 'Neither' at an even shorter 1/15 with Cesaro now at 8s and Miz up to 4/1.
Both wrestlers are tied to the Raw brand, so it should go without saying that this is due to them both unlikely to be in the mix if Lesnar is holding on to the strap until April.

Roman Reigns .vs. John Cena
This market was unavailable when I wrote the odds down on Sunday. When they were last online, the 'Roman Reigns' selection was a 2/5 favourite to beat John Cena to a championship. It has now been moved up to EVENS. This obviously means the punters - or traders - now feel that John Cena has a better chance of claiming either strap ahead of Reigns. Cena's price is now 13/20. It had been up at 7/4. The 'Neither' selection is now 6/1 from 5/1.
I've written in nearly every one of these updates that this head-to-head could wind up being settled on the same night if John Cena's chase for his sixteenth world title is a storyline for next year's Mania. I am guessing with the announcement that Cena is on his way back to WWE in July that the punters have backed Cena in case he ends up in a program with Jinder Mahal once the WWE Champion moves on from Randy Orton.

Baron Corbin .vs. Bray Wyatt
Today is the first time I've seen this matchbet available since May 12th as it had been taken off the board by May 19th. 
When it had previously been installed, the option to back Baron Corbin to win either major title before Bray Wyatt was 13/20. It is now as low as 2/5, Wyatt has jumped out from 3/1 to 6/1 and the 'Neither' selection has stayed at 6/4.
If Baron Corbin wins the Money in the Bank contract, there will be a chance of him becoming WWE Champion, so this would explain why his odds have been cut. However, it's worth noting that the contract could be cashed in after WrestleMania and - by then - 'Neither' would have been the correct bet.

I plan to have a look through the other Championship specials over the next few days.

The markets can be found on the websites that appear on THIS LIST

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