There were four kinds of Wrestling Observer themed markets published by the oddsmakers. The first were over/under propositions, the second was a Yes/No special specific to the Punjabi prison match, the third was a market where clients could bet on the match they felt would end up given the most stars in Dave Meltzer's review of the event and the final allowed customers to have a punt on any match on the card receiving at least five stars.
In this morning's post, I'll run through all of the markets and point out what will be the winning, and losing, selections when all the markets are settled by the sportsbooks.
Over/Under Proposition Markets
In this kind of betting market, the oddsmakers set a line. If the customer believed that the newsletter's editor would rate the match higher than the star threshold set by the bookmaker, then they could back the 'Over'. If the customer thought the line was set too high, they could take the 'Under'.
The traders covered the entire card as they priced up lines for every bout at Battleground.
Tye Dillinger .vs. Aiden English
The Kick Off match saw Tye Dillinger lose to Aiden English. This was a reverse result from the time they met on the pre-show of WWE Backlash in May. Back then, their match received two stars by Dave Meltzer.
I guess the customers might have looked at the amount of stars Dillinger .vs. English received for Backlash and chose to gamble over the line of one-and-a-quarter stars as the odds for '1.25 or Over' opened at even money, but had been slashed to 2/5 by the end of betting.
The betting turned out to be on the right side as the match was given one-and-a-half stars.
The Usos .vs. The New Day
New Day's WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship win over The Usos was given three-and-a-half stars by the newsletter's editor in his review of the match.
As you can see from the betting, the line was set at 3 stars. Both the '3 or Over' and 'Under 3' opened at 17/20. Both sides remained at these odds all the way through the betting. Those that backed the 'Over' will be paid out as winners.
Shinsuke Nakamura .vs. Baron Corbin
Another market with a line of three stars and stayed with both sides at 17/20 was the one for Shinsuke Nakamura's win over Baron Corbin.
The match was awarded one-and-a-half stars, so the 'Under 3' was obviously the right pick to make with this market.
Fatal 5-Way Elimination Match
This market is one of the markets that I highlighted when I published a post about these specials on Saturday. I felt that the match had a good chance of getting two stars or more because there was an opportunity for it to be passable because of most of the talent involved. My instinct was correct as the match received two-and-a-half stars.
The customers had evidently taken the '2 or Over' along with myself as the odds were slashed from 17/20 to 13/20 between Saturday lunchtime and Sunday morning.
AJ Styles .vs. Kevin Owens
Another line I highlighted over the weekend was the 4.5 that the oddsmakers had set for the US Championship match.
I had a feeling it was set too high and pointed out that - when AJ Styles and Kevin Owens wrestled each other in a singles match at Backlash 2017 - they received three and three quarters. By Sunday, the 'Under 4.5' had been cut from 17/20 into 7/10. It was then down to 13/20 by match-time.
The controversial match was awarded three-and-a-quarter stars, so the 'Under' was the correct play.
John Cena .vs. Rusev
An over/under market for the flag match between John Cena and Rusev was first published a fortnight before the match. The line was set at 3.5 stars.
As you can see from the table, both '3.5 or Over' and 'Under 3.5' stayed at 17/20 each for the entire time the market was available to punters.
Those that took the 'Under' will be holding winning tickets as the match was given three stars.
Sami Zayn .vs. Mike Kanellis
The match which saw Sami Zayn avenge his Smackdown loss to Mike Kanellis was awarded two stars by the Observer editor. This means that anybody who backed the 'Under' will end up being paid out when the market is settled.
As you can see, the 'Under' was favourite throughout.
Jinder Mahal .vs. Randy Orton
Just like with the market for John Cena .vs. Rusev, the oddsmakers published an over/under for Punjabi prison match a fortnight before Battleground 2017.
When it first went live, the oddsmakers had set the line for Jinder Mahal's defence of the WWE World Championship against Randy Orton at one star. The main reason - I would guess - is because the two previous Punjabi prison matches were given low ratings by Dave Meltzer. Despite this, I made a case arguing that Mahal and Orton had a decent chance of receiving one star or more in a post that I published on the night of Great Balls of Fire.
I checked back in the following day and noticed that the odds for the over had been snipped to 13/20. By the following morning, the line had been extended to one-and-three-quarter stars.
Looking at the table, it appears as though the customers were still banking on the match receiving more stars than the threshold set out by the bookmakers as the odds for the 'Over' went from 9/10 to 13/20 with a stop at 18/25 in between.
After having a strong opinion that '1 Star or Over' was worth a shout, this was the first part of the review I looked at when I pulled up this morning's issue from the Observer Website. I didn't like what I saw. The match received only three-quarters of a star.
I went 2-1 in my picks. The loss in the WWE Championship market was a letdown because the 'One Star or Over' was the selection I had the most faith in. To lose by a quarter of a star makes it even worse.
Yes/No Market
Punjabi Prison Match To Receive Negative Stars
A market was published on July 9th where clients could have a punt on the Punjabi prison match receiving negative stars by the Wrestling Observer editor. The option to back 'Yes' opened at 7/4 while the 'No' was a 2/5 favourite.
The bettors chose to go with 'No' as it was as short as 2/13 on the evening of the show. As we now know, the match only received three-quarters of a star, so the action was spot on with the eventual result.
Highest Rated Match Of The Night
On the day of the show, the oddsmakers installed a market where customers could have a punt on the match they thought would get the most stars.
The favourite was the US Championship match. It was priced up at 9/10. The selection failed to win as it was beaten by the 5/1 Smackdown Tag Team Championship match that received three-and-a-half stars.
I recorded the 'Any Other Match' as the pre-show bout. I'm unsure whether the Kick Off qualifies for the 'Any Other' selection, so will have to query that for future reference. For the moment, however, it doesn't matter as it wasn't close enough to win.
Any Match To Get 5 Stars Or More
A market where customers could place a bet on any match on the card receiving five stars or more was also put up on Sunday. The traders were this time offering 7/1 odds. In previous months, they priced this up at either 15/1 or 20/1. When it's graded, any bets placed will end up being graded as a loss.
Hopefully, the Kambi oddsmakers will release similar markets for the next WWE show - SummerSlam 2017. If so, I'll cover the markets as I have done since this year's WrestleMania. If you'd like to look back at previous Observer Specials content, you can view the thread of posts with this link.
Wrestling Observer Prop and Specials markets were published by the websites that run Kambi's betting platform. A list of sportsbooks with these markets can be found ON THIS PAGE. Links to a few of these websites' pages can be found below:
What!!!!??! 3 quarters of a star for the Punjabi prison match??? That's just silly... Sure it wasn't a excellent match but it was atleast a 1 star match.... Can't believe that lost I jumped straight on it when I saw it :(
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