Thursday, 14 March 2019

How Kambi's Observer O/U Markets For WWE Fast Lane 2019 Were Settled

In a post published earlier today, I noted that the oddsmakers from Kambi have now settled their Wrestling Observer Newsletter star rating markets for WWE Fast Lane 2019 now that this week's issue - featuring Dave Meltzer's review of the event  - has been published.

The Shield's main event victory over the trio of Baron Corbin, Drew McIntyre and Bobby Lashley was the match of the night with a score of four-and-a-half stars. This meant that the match won the special in which customers could wager on the bout of the night. The score of four-and-a-half won in an 'Exact Star Rating' market. Both markets were covered in the earlier post. In this one, I'll go through the Over/Under specials and see what the winning sides were.

Seeing as I've already mentioned it, I may as well begin with the main event.


Six-Man Tag
Over 3.75 Stars
Exactly 3.75 Stars
Under 3.75 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
19/20
9/5
23/20
10/3 9:30AM
9/10
7/4
5/4
10/3 11:30PM
"
"
"


The bookies set the line at 3.75 stars. As I pointed out on Sunday, the customers appeared to have backed this one going over as the price dipped from 19/20 and 9/10. Those who backed the 'Over' were obviously on the correct side.

The main card started with The Usos successfully retaining the WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship against The Miz and Shane McMahon.

Kambi set the line at 3.25. The betting went the way of the 'Under' as it dropped from 23/20 into 4/5 within the first day. The market was still showing the same pricing on Sunday evening, which was the last time I was able to look at this particular market.

SD Tag Team Championship
Over 3.25 Stars
Exactly 3.25 Stars
Under 3.25 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
19/20
9/5
23/20
10/3 9:30AM
13/10
19/10
4/5
10/3 8:30PM
"
"
"

The winning selection ended up being the middle option as it landed right on the bookie's estimate of three-and-a-quarter.

In Sunday afternoon's post in which I wrote about Bryan Alvarez's and Dave Meltzer's comments about this line, I left an aside where I pointed out that I expected Miz and Shane McMahon to split up after the match and felt the match wouldn't go 'Under'. With that said, I wasn't brave enough to bet on it. If I had, I would have still lost as there's more chance I would have backed 'Over' than the option to bet on 'Exactly 3.25 Stars'.

Asuka's WWE Smackdown Women's Championship defence against Mandy Rose followed the main card opener. Kambi had the line set at 2.75 and the 'Under' was the punters' choice as it was snipped from 23/20 into 4/6.

SD Women's Championship
Over 2.75 Stars
Exactly 2.75 Stars
Under 2.75 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
13/10
9/5
23/20
10/3 9:30AM
6/4
2/1
4/6
10/3 11:30PM
"
"
"

The consensus was spot on. The match was given one-and-a-half stars by Meltzer.

Following an unannounced Kofi Kingston .vs. The Bar handicap match, one of the bouts that was favoured to be match of the night was up.

The Revival's WWE Raw Tag Team Championship win over the teams of Chad Gable and Bobby Roode and Ricochet and Aleister Black was rated three-and-a-half stars by the newsletter's editor. You can see from the betting that the gamblers felt it had a strong chance of beating the line of 3.75.

Raw Tag Team Championship
Over 3.75 Stars
Exactly 3.75 Stars
Under 3.75 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
11/10
2/1
10/11
9/3 9:00PM
EVS
2/1
EVS
10/3 9:30AM
4/6
43/20
7/5
10/3 11:30PM
"
"
"

Unfortunately for them, it was the 'Under 3.75 Stars' that came out on top. The best price could have been found on Sunday morning when 7/5 was on offer. It had started off at 10/11 on Saturday.

Another unadvertised match followed. This time it was Samoa Joe's defence of the US Championship. This was succeeded by the WWE Women's Tag Team Championship match which saw Bayley and Sasha Banks successfully retain their straps against Nia Jax and Tamina.

Women's Tag Team Championship
Over 3.25 Stars
Exactly 3.25 Stars
Under 3.25 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
13/10
9/5
17/20
10/3 9:30AM
"
37/20
4/5
10/3 11:30PM
"
"
"

The bookmakers set the line at 3.25 Stars. The 'Under' dipped from 17/20 into 4/5. Those who forced the adjustment picked the right side as the bout was given one-and-a-quarter stars.

The Over/Under wagers for the WWE Championship match were cancelled when Daniel Bryan .vs. Kevin Owens was changed to a triple threat with Mustafa Ali added. 

Finally, we come to the star rating I was the most interested in as soon as I saw the line and right up until this morning's release of the Observer.

I strongly felt that we weren't going to get a proper match between Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair. So, when I saw the line of 3.75, I backed the 'Under'. I gave my reasoning in this post from Saturday as I felt the chance of a good match was handicapped by the story they were trying to tell - Becky Lynch had an injured leg and, therefore, her chance of winning the match to get into the main event was slim. 

As you can see below, I wasn't alone in this assessment. Many people apparently backed the 'Under' as it descended from 13/10 into 4/11 by 11:30PM GMT on Sunday night.

Lynch .vs. Flair
Over 3.75 Stars
Exactly 3.75 Stars
Under 3.75 Stars
9/3 9:30AM
4/5
37/20
13/10
9/3 9:00PM
13/10
2/1
3/4
10/3 9:30AM
6/4
43/20
8/13
10/3 5:00PM
37/20
"
1/2
10/3 11:30PM
23/10
9/4
4/11

The bout was awarded two stars by the editor, which was even lower than my guess ahead of the match - 2.50.

In the next Observer-themed post, I'll take a look over more specials and props that were available over the weekend.


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