Friday, 12 April 2019

How Kambi's Observer O/U Markets For WrestleMania 35 Were Settled

In the most recent post, I went through the Wrestling Observer star ratings markets that Kambi published for this past weekend's NXT TakeOver: New York event to see how they were settled now that Dave Meltzer's review of the show has been published.

It's now time to take a look over the WrestleMania 35 Over/Under markets.

Cruiserweight Championship
Tony Nese's win over WWE Cruiserweight Champion - Buddy Murphy - was given three-and-a-half stars by the newsletter editor. The bookmaker had the line spot on.

Cruiserweight Championship
Over 3.5 Stars
Exactly 3.5 Stars
Under 3.5 Stars
20/3 5:00PM
6/5
39/20
17/20
3/4 7:00PM
5/4
43/20
3/4
7/4 10:18PM
"
"
"

Those who bet on this market would have found 'Exactly 3.5 Stars' at 39/20 in the earlier stages or 43/20 right up to the match.

You can see, by the betting, that the punters appeared to have backed the bout hitting the 'Under' as the odds went from 17/20 to 3/4.

Women's Battle Royal
The women's battle royal match had a line of one-and-a-half stars and - just like above - the signs point to the punters siding with the 'Under' as the selection dipped to 4/5 from 17/20

Women's Battle Royal
Over 1.5 Stars
Exactly 1.5 Stars
Under 1.5 Stars
31/3 4:00PM
23/20
41/20
17/20
3/4 7:00PM
6/5
21/10
4/5
7/4 10:18PM
"
"
"

Meltzer graded the match higher as it had two-and-a-quarter stars, so the 'Over' was the winning selection.

WWE Raw Tag Team Championship
The line for The Revival versus Zack Ryder and Curt Hawkins was set very low at one star. As I wrote when it was first published a week ago, I was initially surprised at the one star line but then I surmised it was set in this way because the oddsmaker thought the match would be short. Despite understanding why the line was short, I felt it was far too low so went high.

You'll see - in the table below - I wasn't the only one.

Raw Tag Team Championship
Over 1 Star
Exactly 1 Star
Under 1 Star
5/4 7:00PM
9/10
43/20
21/20
5/4 7:30PM
4/5
21/10
6/5
6/4 12:30PM
3/4
43/20
5/4
7/4 10:30AM
4/6
9/4
13/10
CLOSED
"
"
"

The selection was 9/10 to start off with but, by Sunday morning, had been cut to 4/6.

Those who took the 'Over' would have had their bets settled as winners as the reviewer gave the match three stars.

Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal
The bookmaker's estimate for the Andre the Giant Memorial Battle Royal was exactly what Meltzer ended up grading it: one-and-a-half stars.

Andre Battle Royal
Over 1.5 Stars
Exactly 1.5 Stars
Under 1.5 Stars
31/3 4:00PM
10/11
21/10
21/20
3/4 7:00PM
EVS
"
19/20
7/4 10:18PM
"
"
"

The winning selection was 21/10 right through to just before the market was taken down ahead of the bell.

WWE Universal Championship
Seth Rollins' WWE Universal Championship victory over Brock Lesnar was graded three-and-a-half stars in Meltzers review. 

The bookmakers set the line at 4.25 in mid-March. I correctly sided with the 'Under' as the line was a half star higher than I guessed it would be.

It seems the consensus also felt the line was high as it was a slightly shorter 4/5 by April 3rd.

Universal Championship
Over 4.25 Stars
Exactly 4.25 Stars
Under 4.25 Stars
15/3 11:30AM
6/5
39/20
17/20
3/4 7:00PM
5/4
2/1
4/5
7/4 11:25PM
"
"
"

AJ Styles .vs. Randy Orton 
The O/U market for AJ Styles .vs. Randy Orton opened on March 15th with the line set at 4 stars. The 'Under' descended from EVS to 7/10 between then and a couple of hours beforehand.

Styles .vs. Orton
Over 4 Stars
Exactly 4 Stars
Under 4 Stars
15/3 11:30AM
21/20
19/10
EVS
27/3 6:30PM
23/20
"
9/10
3/4 7:00PM
6/5
21/10
4/5
7/4 9:25PM
13/10
43/20
7/10
7/4 11:25PM
"
"
"

Those who sided with the bout getting under four stars were spot on as the editor gave the match three-and-a-quarter stars.

Smackdown Tag Team Championship
The Usos' successful Smackdown Tag Team Championship defence in a fatal four-way match followed.

The line was set at three stars when betting opened on April 5th. The price remained unchanged right up to the start of the match with the 'Over 3 Stars' at 13/10, the 'Under' at 7/10 and 'Exactly 3 Stars' was 43/20.

Meltzer gave the bout three-and-three-quarters, so the 'Over' turned out to be the right play.

The Miz .vs. Shane McMahon
Kambi set the line for the falls count anywhere match between The Miz and Shane McMahon at 3.25 Stars.

You'll see below that the gamblers backed the 'Under' from 13/10 to 13/25 between March 15th and the night of the show.

The Miz .vs. Shane McMahon
Over 3.25 Stars
Exactly 3.25 Stars
Under 3.25 Stars
15/3 11:30AM
4/5
19/10
13/10
19/3 4:00PM
EVS
2/1
EVS
20/3 5:00PM
21/20
21/10
9/10
27/3 6:30PM
6/5
"
4/5
1/4 3:30PM
13/10
43/20
7/10
3/4 7:00PM
OTB
OTB
OTB
4/4 7:30PM
7/5
11/5
13/20
7/4 9:25PM
33/20
23/10
13/25
CLOSED
"
"
"

The punters were on the right side. Meltzer gave the match one-and-three-quarters.

WWE Women's Tag Team Championship
Despite the line for the WWE Women's Tag Team Championship match being set at a low 2.25, the match still fell under that as Dave Meltzer gave it one-and-a-quarter.

Women's Tag Team Championship
Over 2.25 Stars
Exactly 2.25 Stars
Under 2.25 Stars
27/3 6:30PM
5/4
2/1
4/5
3/4 7:00PM
29/20
21/10
13/20
CLOSED
"
"
"

Going by how the odds changed, the consensus appeared to have backed the winning option as it was lowered from 4/5 into 13/20.

WWE Championship
As covered in this morning's post, Kofi Kingston's WWE Championship win over Daniel Bryan was the Highest Rated Match of the Night. It received four-and-a-half stars in the review.

Kambi set the line at four stars when the market was first published on March 27th. However, by April 3rd, the price for the 'Under' had moved in from 4/5 to 7/10.

WWE Championship
Over 4 Stars
Exactly 4 Stars
Under 4 Stars
27/3 6:30PM
5/4
2/1
4/5
3/4 7:00PM
13/10
21/10
7/10
CLOSED
"
"
"

The winning selection was 5/4 to begin, but was a slightly higher 13/10 between April 3rd right up to the night the market closed.

WWE US Championship
Samoa Joe's one-minute submission win over Rey Mysterio in the US Championship match was not graded by Meltzer. Therefore, wagers were voided. 

For what it's worth, the punters felt the line of 3.5 was too high and backed the 'Under' from 3/4 into 1/2.

US Championship
Over 3.5 Stars
Exactly 3.5 Stars
Under 3.5 Stars
20/3 5:00PM
7/5
19/10
3/4
3/4 7:00PM
9/5
9/4
1/2
CLOSED
"
"
"

Roman Reigns .vs. Drew McIntyre
The oddsmakers set the line for Roman Reigns .vs. Drew McIntyre at four stars when the market was installed on March 26th. The 'Under' came in from 17/20 into 8/13 between then and the night of the show.

Reigns .vs. McIntyre
Over 4 Stars
Exactly 4 Stars
Under 4 Stars
26/3 8:30PM
23/20
41/20
17/20
1/4 3:30PM
5/4
43/20
3/4
3/4 7:00PM
7/5
"
4/6
7/4 9:25PM
6/4
"
8/13
CLOSED
"
"
"

Those who backed the 'Under' made the correct call. Their bets will be settled as winners because the final result was two stars.

Triple H .vs. Batista
Another two star match was the no holds barred meeting between Triple H and Batista. When the line was first made available, Kambi had it at 3.75. The punters immediately took to backing the 'Under' as it dropped from 21/20 to 4/5 within its first day. The fall continued right up until the night of the show where the eventual winner was 1/2 before the market closed.

Triple H .vs. Batista
Over 3.75 Stars
Exactly 3.75 Stars
Under 3.75 Stars
15/3 11:30AM
10/11
21/10
21/20
16/3 11:30AM
6/5
"
4/5
19/3 4:00PM
5/4
43/20
3/4
25/3 4:00PM
13/10
11/5
7/10
3/4 7:00PM
8/5
"
11/20
7/4 9:25PM
9/5
9/4
1/2
CLOSED
"
"
"

Kurt Angle .vs. Baron Corbin
Kambi's line for Kurt Angle's farewell match was two stars to begin with. However, by April 3rd - and following the 'Under' plummeting from 17/20 into 13/25 - the bookies reset the line to one star. From there, the gamblers appear to have sided with the 'Over' as went to 33/20 to 17/20.

I was one of the punters who was reluctant to bet with the line at two. This is because I had guessed the line would be two and I like betting over or under my prediction versus the bookmaker's. As soon as it was moved to one - a full star below my guess - I took a punt on the 'Over'.

And I came up short.

Meltzer gave the match exactly one star. So, those who took the 'Under 2 Stars' were on the correct side but those who backed the Over at the adjusted line would have had their bets settled as losers.

Angle .vs. Corbin
Over 2 Stars
Exactly 2 Stars
Under 2 Stars
20/3 5:00PM
11/10
43/20
17/20
27/3 6:30PM
13/10
"
7/10
29/3 5:30PM
33/20
9/4
13/25
NEW LINE
Over 1 Star
Exactly 1 Star
Under 1 Star
3/4 7:00PM
33/20
33/20
7/10
4/4 7:30PM
13/10
7/4
17/20
5/4 4:30PM
6/5
9/5
10/11
6/4 12:30PM
19/20
19/10
11/10
7/4 9:25PM
17/20
39/20
6/5
CLOSED
"
"
"

WWE Intercontinental Championship
Kambi set the line for Finn Balor's WWE Intercontinental Championship challenge against Bobby Lashley at 2.75.

As the table shows, the 'Under' fell from 23/20 into 19/20 between March 27th and April 3rd. The market remained that way right up to Sunday night.

IC Championship
Over 2.75 Stars
Exactly 2.75 Stars
Under 2.75 Stars
27/3 4:00PM
17/20
41/20
23/20
3/4 7:00PM
EVS
21/10
19/20
7/4 11:25PM
"
"
"

Those who backed the 'Under' were on the right side as Meltzer graded the match one-and-a-quarter stars.

Main Event
Kambi set the Over/Under for the main event at 4.25 stars. The action appeared to have went the way of the 'Over' as the selection went from 19/20 on March 15th to 7/10 by April 3rd. It was cut to 13/20 on the night of the show.

SD and Raw Women's Championships
Over 4.25 Stars
Exactly 4.25 Stars
Under 4.25 Stars
15/3 11:30AM
19/20
19/10
11/10
3/4 7:00PM
7/10
41/20
13/10
7/4 9:25PM
13/20
"
6/4
CLOSED
"
"
"

The match fell short of Kambi's line as Meltzer gave it three stars. Therefore, the best bet would have been the 'Under' with prices of 11/10, 13/10 or - if you had waited until late - the top price of 6/4.

In future posts, set for later this weekend, I'll take a look over the Observer matchbet/head-to-head and prop bets that were available for the PPV.


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