Over the past two nights, I've published posts about the Kambi oddsmakers' Superstar Shakeup prop bets.
On Tuesday, I wrote about the prop markets that should be settled in favour of wrestlers that moved from NXT or Smackdown to Raw and then - in yesterday's post - I covered the wrestlers that were moved to Smackdown from NXT or Raw.
In this final edition of the Superstar Shakeup coverage, the focus is on the prop markets that settled in favour of the wrestlers who stayed on their respective brands.
NXT Wrestlers
Six of the markets for members of the NXT roster to move from the brand will be settled in favour of 'No'.
Adam Cole started off as an 11/20 favourite to move away from NXT when the market was first priced up on February 17th. By March 31st, the odds were cut to 2/5 and then - by April 5th - the price was shortened to 7/20. The winning selection moved back up to 2/5 on April 7th, which was - if you recall - a day after he failed to win the NXT Championship at NXT TakeOver: New York.
A day before the aforementioned TakeOver event, Johnny Gargano's odds to move from NXT moved in from 6/4 to 6/5. However, after winning the NXT Championship in the main event, the bookies cut his odds to stay at NXT from 3/5 into 7/20.
Matt Riddle's odds to remain on the NXT roster were backed to start off with, but - following a loss to Velveteen Dream at TakeOver - his price to move away from the brand was snipped from 3/1 into 7/4. As we now know, Riddle stayed with NXT.
Shayna Baszler kept her NXT Women's Championship at TakeOver. Going in, it appears as though the punters thought she would leave the event without the strap and find her way to the main roster as the selection was cut from 3/4 into 3/5 - with a stop at 8/13. After retaining, the bookies moved the champ's odds to stay with NXT from 8/13 to 1/3.
Tomasso Ciampa opened at 2/5 to stay on the NXT roster when the market was opened on February 17th. Not long after that, Ciampa was one of the names brought up to the main roster as a guest. He then had to go under the knife and - as a result - was unable to move up to the main roster.
It was a 17/20 pick 'em for Velveteen Dream to remain with or leave NXT when his market opened. The betting sided with 'No' as it was cut to 3/4 a day before the NXT TakeOver event and was then a shorter 7/25 a day after the show.
Raw Wrestlers
Eleven markets for wrestlers from the Raw roster should be settled with the 'No'.
Alexa Bliss was 9/10 to remain with the red brand when the market was first installed in February. The bookies cut her price to move away from Raw to 3/5 from 4/5 in March and moved the odds to remain on her current brand out to 6/5. They stayed at 6/5 right up until close.
Looking at the betting for Baron Corbin, it's safe to conclude the gamblers thought he would move back to Smackdown as there was a slide from 7/4 into 13/10 between February 17th and April 5th. Remaining on Raw was a 2/5 favourite to begin with and closed at a slightly higher 13/25.
The wagering for Bobby Lashley's shakeup market points to customers believing he would stay with Raw as the 'No' fell from 1/2 into 11/25 by April 5th. As we now know, he did indeed stay with the brand.
The punters seemed to have backed Braun Strowman moving across to Smackdown as the odds for a move went down from 2/1 to 5/4 between the market opening and the final day of wagering. Sticking on Raw opened at 1/3, but was up to 11/20 on April 5th.
Bray Wyatt was still assigned to Raw when Smackdown went off the air last week. Therefore, if I've read the rules correctly, the 'No' should be the winning selection. Going by how Wyatt's market changed, it's safe to conclude the gamblers thought he was one of the stars who would move away from Raw. The 'Yes' was favoured and backed down to 8/13 by April 5th. The winning selection should be 'No'. It was 9/10 at the start and was up to 23/20 at the end.
Brock Lesnar to stay on Raw dropped from 4/9 into 2/5 by March 31st.
The Drew McIntyre market points to people having expected the Scottish Psychopath to cross brands as the price went from 5/2 to 2/1 when it was available. The winning selection - 'No' - opened at 1/4 and was 1/3 at close.
Nia Jax's odds to move away from Raw were snipped from 7/4 into 6/4. She was a favourite to stay even though the price was increased from 2/5 to 4/9.
Ronda Rousey to still be on the Raw roster after the shakeup went from 13/20 into 1/3. I was quite surprised by this. Even though I didn't bet on it myself, I expected the odds for the 'Yes' to have been cut as I thought the punters would expect Rousey to be moved to Smackdown in time for the Fox deal regardless of the reports she was taking leave following WrestleMania.
The punters evidently thought that Sami Zayn would find his way back to Smackdown as the 'Yes' for his market was cut from EVS into 19/20 by March 31st and were then snipped to 9/10 by April 5th. I would hazard a guess that the gamblers thought the company would move him back to Smackdown in order to be paired back up with Kevin Owens.
Another market in which the betting sided with the eventual losing selection was the one for Seth Rollins. The odds for Rollins to change brands went from 6/1 right down to 7/2. The bookies had the 'No' favoured at 1/16 but - as a Rollins move was lowered - the bookies moved the favourite up and it closed at 2/13.
Smackdown Wrestlers
Six markets should be settled in favour of Smackdown stars staying with the blue brand.
Asuka was 1/8 to still be on Smackdown when the market for the Superstar Shakeup was first installed in February. By April 7th, the oddsmakers were offering 17/20. This is because the punters backed the 'Yes' from 4/1 all the way down to 17/20 from day one until the night of the market closing.
The gamblers also sided with Daniel Bryan switching brands as the 'Yes' fell from 5/1 right down to 5/4. I was one of the punters who thought it was worth backing Bryan's to move when the 'Yes' was at its highest. Bryan was still part of Smackdown's roster following the Superstar Shakeup, so the correct side was obviously the 'No'. It rose from 1/12 to 11/20 during the period when the market was available to bet on.
Ali's odds to move away from Smackdown went from 4/1 into 11/4 between the day the market opened and the last sighting I had of them (WrestleMania Sunday). As we now know, Ali remained on the Smackdown roster. The 'No' was a 1/8 favourite to begin with, but it was a best price 11/50 at the end.
I thought Randy Orton moving over to Smackdown was another decent bet at 3/1 when the market was published on February 17th. I wasn't alone. By WrestleMania Sunday, the bookies were offering 'Yes' at 7/5. The eventual winning selection - 'No' - went from 1/5 to 1/2.
Rusev was 6/5 to switch brands when his market was first priced up in February. However, when it was republished in late March, the offer had been snipped to 11/10. As a result, the 'No' moved up from 3/5 into 13/20. The market landed back to where it opened by April 5th after the 'No' fell from the aforementioned 13/20 back to 3/5.
Rusev's tag team partner, Shinsuke Nakamura, also had a market available for his post-Shakeup status. Judging by the betting, the punters appear to have been expecting him to move brands as the 'Yes' was cut from 7/5 to 4/5 from day one to close. The winning selection - 'No' opened at 1/2 and its best price was the 9/10 that was available on the evening of WrestleMania.
This was the final part of the Superstar Shakeup coverage for the time being. The previous editions can be viewed by following the links below.
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