Wednesday 4 September 2019

KOTR 2019 Betting: After Week 3

Now that the King of the Ring quarter finals have been completed, a few - but not all - of Kambi's markets I thought would be settled this week are close to being graded.

As I have been doing in these weekly posts following the tournament rounds, I'll go result by result. This time, I'll start with the first quarter final match from Raw.

Baron Corbin beats Cedric Alexander
If you read the post titled My KOTR Bracket 2.0, you would have seen that I thought Cedric Alexander had a chance of making it to the semi-finals. I got that one wrong as Baron Corbin moved on to next week's round. 

A number of sports betting firms were taking bets on this match. Corbin closed as a favourite with all three bookmakers (4/9 Betfair/Paddy Power, 7/20 Kambi, 2/7 Sky Bet).

With Cedric Alexander now out of contention, the 'Stage of Elimination' market - that Kambi priced up - will be graded with his departure from the tournament occurring in the 'Quarter or Semi Final' or 'Quarter Final' depending on which version of the market customers would have bet on.

There were two editions of the 'Stage of Elimination' markets for Cedric Alexander's tournament performance. The first was published shortly before WWE revealed the first round matches. As you can see in the first table, Kambi offered customers the options on Alexander being 'Eliminated in Round 1', 'Quarter or Semi Final' or to be a finalist.

The winning selection in the first edition of the market was 8/13, so - anyone who may have bet on this before the tournament matches were confirmed - would win there.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting - Cedric Alexander Elimination

The revised edition of the market was put up on August 22nd with 'Quarter Finals', 'Semi Final' and 'Reaches Final' the three selections to choose from.

The winning selection opened at 5/4, but was moved down to 11/10 within a couple of days. It remained at this price until it was taken down.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting - Cedric Alexander Elimination

Ricochet and Samoa Joe Draw
With Ricochet and Samoa Joe both pinning each other and progressing to the semi finals, there was obviously no 'Stage of Elimination' market settled for either man.

Elias beats Ali
Smackdown's quarter finals were filled with betting upsets. The first saw Elias defeat Ali.

Date/Time
Ali
Elias
28/8 1:r50PM
1/5
3/1
29/8 8:30AM
2/13
7/2
31/8 11:00AM
1/10
9/2
2/9 4:00PM
"
"

Elias closed as a 9/2 favourite with Kambi when the market was taken down on Monday night.

Over at Sky Bet, customers could have picked him up at 4/1 right up to 11PM BST last night.


Date/Time
Elias
Ali
28/8 8:25PM
10/3
1/5
1/9 10:00AM
4/1
1/8
3/9 10:30PM
"
"

The Elias result means a number of Kambi's specials will be settled. 

A 'Stage of Elimination' market for Ali was published on August 16th with customers offered the options to wager on his tournament ending in 'Round 1', the 'Quarter or Semi Final' or as a finalist. 

As I have written about other specials, this market was created before WWE revealed the bracket and was taken down shortly after it was announced. Kambi didn't republish or readjust this market when the oddsmakers put their King of the Ring specials back online a week later.

If anyone bet before the bracket was announced, the winning selection would be the 5/4 for 'Quarter Final or Semi Final'.

King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Ali's Stage of Elimination

A head-to-head special with Ali paired off against Ricochet will also be settled now that Ali has been knocked out of contention.

King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Best Finishing Position - Ricochet .vs. Ali

With Ricochet progressing to the semi-final, he wins the 'Best Finishing Position' special.

As you can see, the betting was on the side of Ali throughout as he closed as a 21/50 favourite to Ricochet's 33/20.

In Monday's My Bracket 2.0 post, I mentioned that I had backed Ricochet as I felt he would pass through to the finals and Ali would fall in the semi final stage. I obviously had the Ali elimination part wrong, but the bet worked out in my favour and will be paid out a week earlier than I expected.

Chad Gable beats Andrade
Another one I had wrong was picking Andrade to make it past Chad Gable in this round.

The bookies had Andrade as a very short favourite to win this one, but it was the underdog Gable who turned out to be the correct pick. As you can see in the table below, Kambi closed with Gable at 6/1 while Andrade was as short  as 1/16.


Date/Time
Andrade
Chad Gable
28/8 1:50PM
1/4
5/2
29/8 8:30AM
1/14
11/2
1/9 10:00AM
1/16
6/1
2/9 4:00PM
"
"

There were two 'Stage of Elimination' markets for Andrade. The first, which was published before the brackets were announced, allowed the customers to wager on his elimination occurring in 'Round 1', the 'Quarter or Semi Final' or to make the final.

The winning selection in this version of the market was the middle option, which was a 13/10 favourite.


King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Andrade's Stage of Elimination

The refreshed edition of the market, which came out on August 22nd, had the 'Quarter Final', 'Semi Final' and 'Reaches Final' as the selections on offer.

As you can see below, the odds for Andrade to reach the final were taken down from 7/10 into 13/25 while the eventual winner rose to 29/10 from 9/4.

King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Andrade's Stage of Elimination

The last head-to-head market will also be settled following this result and one from Monday night.

With Samoa Joe and Ricochet both moving on to the semi final to meet Baron Corbin in a triple threat on Raw, and with Andrade falling in the quarter finals, the winning selection in a 'Best Finishing Position' market featuring Andrade and Joe will settle with the latter as the winning pick.

Joe was a strong outsider here. This is because - as the second  'Stage of Elimination' market proves - the punters expected Andrade to at least reach the final.

King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Best Finishing Position - Andrade .vs. Samoa Joe

I'll have another post in a week from now where I'll cover the semi final results. Until then, it looks like I might have to do a My KOTR Bracket 3.0!

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