Earlier this month, in a post titled 'Dolphins Said, The Results Read : Payback Edition', I gave out this warning:
The WWE betting landscape is getting a little less easier to read for many reasons nowadays and I believe we're getting close to the point where some of the bookmakers' favourites might end up losing in at least one match each month.
Last night saw three - yes, three - underdogs win.
The three match winners - who entered their respective bouts as outsiders - were The Usos, Layla and John Cena.
Each winner tells a similar, yet different story. It's worth looking at the following table for detail.
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There isn't much to see in betting on the tag team match which started off the pay-per-view.
The Usos were betting underdogs from the moment the lines were published and they stayed that way all the way through to the close.
Had this match taken place later on in the show, we might have seen something interesting as the other two outsider winners show.
As the table shows, Summer Rae had opened as a favourite. Her price had shortened to -1500 following Saturday night's betting. They remained at that price throughout Sunday right up until the pay-per-view started when the shift started going in the way of Layla. As you can see, Layla was +700 as the show was starting but, by the time of her match, her price had halved.
People were backing Layla late in the betting round.
Betting for the main event for the WWE World Heavyweight Championship turned into a back-and-forth battle from the off.
SummerSlam 2014 poster leaks and announcements made the opening favourite, John Cena, drift out with outsiders like Randy Orton and Kane coming into the picture. Orton almost became a favourite during certain points of the weekend, but it was Kane who ended up moving into the role with a few hours before the event was to start.
Similarly to the Summer Rae versus Layla match, money did start coming back in on Cena but it wasn't enough. He entered last night's match as the shortest underdog in the field.
Now that we have seen this occur, I am excited to see whether this new trend will repeat itself. We only have three weeks to find out.
I've got a feeling that the result Summer Rae/Layla match may have either been changed last minute or a decision had not been made until the last minute because the money started going on Layla just before her match which means people found out around that time she was going to win.....also starting odds of -900 for Summer Rae was a mystery to me because there was no indication she would be winning the match beforehand. Another thing to note is that Summer Rae's odds did not drastically change like the rest of the all out favourites e.g. goldust/stardust went from -1500 to -4500 Rusev went from -1500 to -2750 paige went from -750 to 1500 and Rollins went from -300 to -1700 but Summer Rae went from -900 to -1500 which suggest not alot of money being placed on her. To conclude I agree with David that results are harder to predict especially on the ones where the results do not have an impact on the current storylines e.g. Summer Rae/Layla or The Usos having to lose the titles...the main event for the past 6 months have all been close calls based on odds so they are always close. But the ones where the matches are in direct relation to the storyline are still easy to predict e.g Rusev wouldnt lose first time to Big E Goldust/Stardust are new tag team Paige would not lose to Naiomi having lost just a week ago to her Rollins having his big push after shield
ReplyDeleteI have noticed on a few occasions that - if there is doubt, they stick the favourite odds on the babyface and let the punters ride it out. This is what probably happened here.
DeleteAs a huge fan I must say I was pleasantly surprised by some of last night's match outcomes. The Uso's retaining the tag titles was a surprise. I've been checking the betting markets over the past year or so and more often than not they're usually on the money. Last night there were 3 results that weren't favourites which is refreshing to say the very least. The gamble on Kane is mind boggling to be honest. Even I bet him at odds of 8/1 when I seen the odds tumbling. It wouldn't surprise me if WWE were putting out this information to get fans in a frenzy and peak interest for the event. Cena was always going to be the winner when you take a step back and look at it. Still, it was exciting and very interesting. I just wish Kane would have won to be honest! Love the website btw. Good work!
ReplyDeleteI'm still baffled by the Kane swing and especially still surprised that there were three underdog wins.
DeleteI knew we were getting close to seeing it happen because the odds have been getting relatively close in recent months.I didn't expect to see three in one night, though.
Thanks for your comment, I really appreciate it.
I have questioned 'smart money' being placed before and I will question it again because in the Layla vs Summer Rae match I'm sure smart money would have put the odds in favour of Layla if it had been placed but clearly it hadn't been made. So either that is the reason why the odds did not go in favour of Layla or the decision for her to win was made/changed last minute so WWE show that the results are not what the betting sites are saying it is. I think that WWE are picking up on this so called betting and are changing the results where possible and least likely to affect the storyline. What do you think David??? Agree or disagree??
ReplyDeleteLayla's odds were shortening as the show was progressing and Summer Rae had been given out as a spoiler so it's hard to determine what was going on.
DeleteWas the inside money (if it was being placed) being drowned out partially by the regular bettors following the 'spoilers' ? We'll never know.
You might have a point about the results being changed. However, I think they would have done it when the Dolphins story was at its peak.
They might be doing it for other reasons, though.