Did Smart Money Land On WWE Payback 2015?

Curtis Axel & Damien Sandow's loss to The Ascension on the pre-show of WWE Payback 2015 last night was an upset on many levels.

Going in to the match, the pair were -7,500 favourites. The heaviest price of the night. This brings up a number of questions: did the smart players get it wrong? Was there a last minute change? Was smart money in play at all last night?

Usually, the tell that smart money has been placed on pay-per-view matches is evident in the two-hour period before a show is to begin. I tend to get a strong feeling when I notice these changes. However, when I was recording the odds last night, I wasn't confident enough to flat out state that the insiders had bet. The alignment I look for was not there. Not at the time I usually see it, anyway.

To highlight my point, I'll go through each match individually, note the patterns and hopefully make sense.

The Ascension's win

Curtis Axel & Damien Sandow were favourites from the moment the market opened. They remained that way up to the close.

At 11pm BST, the pair were -1,500 faves. Within ten minutes, their odds had shortened heavily to -7,500. 

It was enough for me to suggest that inside betting was starting to filter in. After all, the time was in line with the trend. 

As we now know, The Ascension left the match as winners. Their price was +2,500. 

Sheamus defeats Dolph Ziggler

Sheamus was a -210 favourite when I first noticed the match had been added to the 5Dimes betting board (9am BST 15th May). From that point forward, fan money came in on him then on Ziggler. Despite this, Sheamus remained favoured throughout the entire period.

At 11pm, Sheamus was -175. He remained stationary on this number from around 7pm. By 12am, his odds had shortened to -210. Once again, nothing pointed to smart money being involved for this match.

The New Day over Kidd & Cesaro

The New Day were -530 at 11pm and had shortened to -1,200 by 12am. It was a strong move within the important hour but -- considering the other markets - it wasn't enough to make me confident that it was anything more than fan logic shortening the price.

Bray Wyatt wins against Ryback

Wyatt was -400 at 11pm. By 12am, his price was also at -1,200. The same rule applies to what was written for the New Day .vs. Kidd & Cesaro match. 

With that noted, by the time the match started, Wyatt's odds had shortened further moving to -4,500. Had this happened between the hours of 11 and 12, I would have been more committed to concluding that the odds change was down to smart money. 

John Cena victorious over Rusev

This was an interesting one and it could be used to point that there was no smart money placed on what should have been an easy call for fans and insiders alike.

John Cena was -1,260 at 11pm. Within the hour, these odds had improved to Cena -1,050. Rusev - who had been +620 - fell to +550.

Not a sign of smart betting at all. If there was, Rusev's number would have improved rather than decreased.

By match time, Cena was -1,200. Still nothing to suggest inside action.

Naomi & Tamina win against The Bellas

Naomi & Tamina were -430 favourites from 7pm all the way to 11pm when they moved to -460. They remained at that price until just before their match when they entered as -510 faves.

Once again, there is no evidence to indicate any insider wagers moving this line.

Neville defeats King Barrett

A peculiar one.

Barrett was -125 and Neville was -115 from 8am Saturday all the way to 11pm Sunday when Neville moved to -135 and Barrett improved to -105.

The odds remained at these levels well into the PPV. By bell-time, Neville had moved to a -1,500 favourite while his opponent had gone out to +700. 

If this was down to inside betting, it came in late.

Seth Rollins wins the Fatal 4-way

The 11pm - 12am price changes were weird here as well.

Rollins had moved from the -2,450 he was at 8am on Saturday morning to -2,600 at 11pm on Sunday. By 12am, his price had changed to -2,000. 

The odds for 'The Field .vs. Seth Rollins' dropped from +1,200 to +1,000 between 11pm and 12am.

At 1am, when the PPV was beginning, Rollins was -1,500 while 'The Field' had descended once again. It was now at +700.

By match time, Rollins' price had gone back to the -2,600 he had been at 11pm. 

There is absolutely nothing to suggest inside betting occurred on this match. The trend appears to be fans betting on their personal favourites (Roman Reigns going from +1,200 to +1,000 between 11pm and 12am & Dean Ambrose backed from +3,500 to +3,000 between 12am and the match).

To conclude, there might be a case to point to smart betting having taken place on some but not all of the bouts from last night. Hopefully, the above will give you a better understanding why I wasn't confident enough to believe that inside action had taken place at the time I usually do.