Monday, 12 September 2016

How An Oddsmaker Would Price Up The 7th September 2016 Raw Main Event

On this week's episode of WWE Raw, Roman Reigns will compete against Kevin Owens in a match where - if Reigns wins - the Owens versus Seth Rollins main event for Clash of Champions will be turned into a triple threat match.

A fortnight ago, I checked in with an oddsmaker of a well-known sportsbook to see how he would have priced up all four runners in a fatal four-way match that was set up on Raw. The post had quite a good response from visitors, so I thought I'd check in with him once again. This time, I wanted to ask how he would have priced up tonight's match.

The trader likes the idea of Roman Reigns winning tonight's match because he thinks that there's more of an incentive for WWE to have the triple threat at Clash of Champions. Therefore, he would have published the odds as follows:

Kevin Owens 11/10 (+110 US)
Roman Reigns 4/6  (-150 US)

For what it's worth, I'm leaning on Kevin Owens playing spoiler. Or rather Chris Jericho ruining things. I sense Jericho will cost Reigns the title shot somehow. This will then set up a Reigns versus Jericho match for Clash of Champions.

Which leads me on to the title match at the next PPV.

On top of asking how he would have done tonight's match if Monday Night Raw betting had been a possibility, I asked the trader how he would chalk up the Clash of Champions main event whichever scenario plays out later on.

If it's a regular one-on-one, the odds would have opened as:

Kevin Owens 8/11
Seth Rollins EVS

Or, if it's as he predicts:

Kevin Owens EVS (+100)
Seth Rollins 6/4
Roman Reigns 7/2

He has Kevin Owens winning retaining with a win in both scenarios and has noted that he believes the title should remain with the heel in Owens right up until Finn Balor is ready to recapture the strap.

Now all we have to do is see how the match unfolds and see how the markets would have paid out.

1 comment:

  1. I agree RE Jericho vs Reigns but no odds compiler is going to make Kevin Owens 8-11 in a 1v1 against Rollins! Why an earth would they give him the strap to take it off him a month later, would not make any sense in the slightest.

    RE the Nikki Bella move its interesting that the initial move was right after The Miz moved. I also presumed it would lead to a Nikki win but it could be somebody assuming that the initial move had been off the mark due to the Miz getting backed so piling on assuming the odds were wrong due to an off the mark guess on Friday night?

    @mallottbetting

    ReplyDelete

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