A Belated Hypothetical Proposition Post For Lesnar .vs. Mahal

In the days leading up to WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2017, I got in touch with my friend who works in the betting industry and asked him what prices he would give to the upcoming Survivor Series match between WWE Universal Champion - Brock Lesnar - and WWE Champion, Jinder Mahal if her were to price up a market. He gave me his hypothetical prices and I planned to publish a post writing about his response in the days following TLC 2017.

The plan backfired because the Kambi oddsmakers beat us to it by releasing his own real prices for the November 19th battle of the champions.

Still - it put this blogger in an interesting position because it allowed me to compare my friend's prices to the Kambi oddsmaker's for today's post.

My friend believes that Brock Lesnar will go over at the PPV and would therefore give 'The Beast' odds of 1/12. His reasoning is because Lesnar hasn't lost to names like Samoa Joe and Braun Strowman since winning the Universal Championship and he believes that they won't have Lesnar lose with the big plan for him to meet his match against Roman Reigns at WrestleMania 34.

With Lesnar at 1/12, this would put the WWE Champion - Jinder Mahal - at 6/1.

Kambi's odds for the match were published on Saturday morning. The trader also had Brock Lesnar as a short-priced favourite to get a decision over the WWE Champ as he opened at 2/13.

A win for Mahal in the real-life pricing was put up at 7/2 before being taken down ahead of TLC 2017.

My takeaway from seeing both sets of prices is that the oddsmakers believe the Survivor Series meeting isn't going to be close and Lesnar will do what he has done with every challenger since lifting the WWE Universal Title.

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Predicting Asuka's Odds For TLC 2017

With next weekend's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2017 show featuring the main roster debut of former NXT Women's Champion, Asuka, I've had a couple of comments on here and Twitter asking what I thought the price will be for Asuka when markets are available for the match.

Instead of making up a random number myself, I went and asked a friend who works in the betting industry how he would price the market. He gave me his projected prices to share with you.

It isn't really a surprise, but he has Asuka as a very short favourite to win against Emma next week.

He told me that he would place the former Kana at 1/100 for the bout noting that it was an easy call.

This would put Emma at 16/1 for the very unlikely upset.

Hypothetical Proposition: Two MITB Cash-Ins At SummerSlam 2017?

In a post published yesterday, I looked through Kambi's Money in the Bank cash-in odds and played devil's advocate by asking the question 'What if Carmella is cashing in at SummerSlam instead of Baron Corbin?' I closed the post hinting that I was going to ask another question along those lines in the near future.

So, here we go - what if both Money in the Bank briefcases are cashed in on the same night?

I was kind of surprised that the Kambi oddsmaker hadn't published a proposition market with this option because the company has pricing for 'Any', 'Male' or 'Women's' being cashed in during the SummerSlam pay-per-view. They just haven't got one for 'Both'.

Intrigued as to what the price could be, I got in touch with my friend who has helped me with previous 'Hypothetical Proposition' posts in the past and asked for his opinion.

As of the time of writing, he would have priced it up at 8/11.

Individually, he would have given Carmella 1/4 to cash in her briefcase. The main reason is something that I wrote a few times lately and it's because this is a hometown crowd for her.

Baron Corbin cashing in would depend on who's the favourite for the WWE Championship match closer to the event. At the moment, he has Baron Corbin at 1/2 to execute his contract.

Two cash-ins on one show is unprecedented, so it could be something that's done to surprise the viewers.

If Carmella cashes in before the WWE Championship match, it could lull some into believing that there is no chance Corbin would execute his immediate title shot as well. So - in a way - I can see the writers thinking up this idea.

Whether it happens is another thing entirely.

Raw's Main Event, Kambi's SummerSlam Special And A Hypothetical Proposition

On the upcoming edition of WWE Raw, Roman Reigns and Samoa Joe will go one-on-one to determine who will become Brock Lesnar's challenger at SummerSlam.

If you've been following along, the original plan was supposed to have been Brock Lesnar versus Finn Balor, but Braun Strowman - who was meant to face Lesnar at Great Balls of Fire - was injured a few weeks before the event. This forced WWE to change plans and go with Samoa Joe as a challenger for Great Balls of Fire and then move Strowman for SummerSlam.

It didn't end there.

There were also reports that the WrestleMania 34 main event may have been brought forward to SummerSlam. Therefore, Brock Lesnar versus Roman Reigns replaced Lesnar .vs. Strowman as the direction for SummerSlam. Either that or, with Samoa Joe becoming a hit due to the Great Balls of Fire build, it would turn into a triple threat match.

After watching the post-match angle involving Roman Reigns and Braun Strowman at Great Balls of Fire - which saw Reigns crash an ambulance with Strowman in its back - I couldn't help but think WWE had changed course yet again.

The upcoming Raw is meant to confirm the SummerSlam main event. With the focus on the number one contender match between Roman Reigns and Samoa Joe, the oddsmakers from Kambi have republished a market that I wrote about at the start of this week where customers could have a bet on what they believe the SummerSlam main event will be.

The 'Exact Composition' market has seen some changes made to it since it was first installed.

The selection that appears to have seen action is the one where clients can wager on a triple threat match involving Braun Strowman, Roman Reigns and the Universal Champion. It has been cut from 1/2 into 3/10.

The Lesnar versus Reigns match, that had been reported lately and - according to Dave Meltzer was the plan as of a fortnight ago - has moved up to 5/4 from EVENS.

A rematch from Great Balls of Fire will now pay out at 6/1. This is an increase from 4/1.

In Monday's post, I pointed out a conspicuous absence in a Lesnar .v. Reigns .v. Joe triple threat match and this has now been added at 3/1.

Coincidentally, I was planning to publish a 'Hypothetical Proposition' post this coming Monday because I had asked a person who works in the gaming industry how he would price up a similar market with three possible outcomes. I didn't think Kambi would reinstall these markets, so was going to compare the previous odds to how my friend would have priced them up and release the post a few hours ahead of the Reigns versus Joe match to determine a number one contender.

Here's how they contrast:

Lesnar .vs. Reigns

The person who works in the gaming business is no longer confident that Brock Lesnar versus Roman Reigns will wrestle each other in the main event at SummerSlam. He would have given 7/1 odds for this to happen if he was tasked with pricing it up. His belief is the course is still set to have this match at WrestleMania 34 and not any time before then.

Lesnar .vs. Reigns .vs. Joe

He would have given this selection 7/4 odds. This composition was made a second-favourite of the three just in case WWE plays up Strowman's injuries from the ambulance match angle. He doesn't think this will be the case, but had to factor it in as a slight possibility.

Lesnar .vs. Reigns .vs. Joe .vs. Strowman

A four-way involving all four Raw main eventers would have been the favourite of the three selections I asked him to price up. It would have been given 4/7 because, just like with Strowman and Reigns, the Joe and Lesnar feud is far from over so combining the two top rivalries into one match is how he thinks the SummerSlam main event will be sewn together. 

It's difficult to fully contrast the real selections to the hypothetical ones because Kambi's market features more selections. However, the four-way is 2/1 with Kambi's oddsmakers and might appeal to those that believe the top four guys from Raw will clash for the Universal Championship on August 20th.

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Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe (Week 4)

For the past month, I've published a series of posts where I've asked a person who works in the gaming industry how he would price up the WWE Great Balls of Fire main event if he were able to.

When I last checked in, the prices that he would have set for the match would have been 1/8 for Brock Lesnar to successfully retain the WWE Universal Championship and have Samoa Joe out at 9/2.

These were the same prices he suggested in week one. There was a change in approach in week two where Samoa Joe's odds would have been lowered to 7/2 while Lesnar's price was raised to 1/6.

The reason behind the week two adjustment was due to WWE getting a huge amount of interest in an angle on the 12th June edition of Raw that opened with the two opponents in a pull apart brawl. The segment has pulled in over seven million views on YouTube as of the time of writing.

Despite lowering in the second meeting, the compiler moved back to his original stance.

I contacted him again over the weekend and there has been no change in how he would set up the market. He would still have the current WWE Universal Champion a 1/8 fave to win the match and hang Joe out at 9/2.

As the weeks have progressed, his opinion that the match will end in a controversial manner has strengthened. He expects Lesnar to retain the strap and progress to SummerSlam 2017.

When discussing potential ways Sunday's match could end - a disqualification victory for Lesnar, a count out win for Samoa Joe and even a draw were brought up as potential ways to have Lesnar retain at the same time as keeping Joe as strong as he has been throughout the build to Sunday.

You can read the previous editions of this series below:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe (Week 3)

For the past few Mondays, I've published a series of posts where I've asked a person who worked in the betting industry how he would price the upcoming Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe match for WWE Great Balls of Fire if he were able to do so. The plan was to price it up and then return numerous times along the way to see if any angles or breaking wrestling news forces him to readjust how he would tackle the market.

When we last left off, my friend had lowered Samoa Joe's odds from 9/2 to 7/2 because the angle, where Brock Lesnar and Samoa Joe were in a pull apart brawl at the start of the June 12th edition of WWE Raw, had received a high number of views on YouTube and he felt that WWE might think it had something big in Joe and have the match result in a double count-out or disqualification.

Following last Monday's Raw, where Roman Reigns challenged the eventual winner for a match at SummerSlam 2017 and then wrestled Samoa Joe in the main event, the trader has decided to revert back to his original estimate and have Joe out at 9/2  (+450 US) while the WWE Universal Champion - Brock Lesnar - move back to 1/8 (-800 US) from 1/6.

The reason why the compiler has decided to swing back to the original pricing is because he has factored in the possibility that WWE has changed course and that the SummerSlam main event will see Reigns challenge Brock Lesnar for the Universal Title rather than WrestleMania 34.

Another thing that made him decide that Brock Lesnar's price had to be cut back down was because the company gave away Reigns .vs. Joe on last week's Raw, He felt that the company wouldn't have gone to that match if it was the planned Universal Championship match for SummerSlam.

Brock Lesnar is scheduled for tonight's episode of Raw, so it'll be interesting to see if anything that happens on the show prompts another adjustment.

You can read previous Hypothetical Proposition posts by clicking on 'Hypothetical' in the labels below.

Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe (Week 2)

In last week's 'Hypothetical Proposition' post, I asked a person who worked in the gaming industry how he would price up this summer's clash between Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe if he was able to publish betting odds for the match. I have checked back in with him to see if anything that happened on last week's Raw has made him reflect on the prices he gave me last week.

When we spoke last week, I was told that Brock Lesnar would have been installed at 1/8 (-800 US). The reasons I was given for the short odds were because Great Balls of Fire will be Lesnar's first defence of the title and there had been reports that Braun Strowman could be the wrestler that challenges Lesnar at this year's SummerSlam.

With Lesnar at 1/8, this meant that Samoa Joe would have been 9/2 (+450 US) - a 12.5% chance of winning.

Since we spoke, there was a big angle in the first segment of last week's Raw where both Brock Lesnar and Samoa Joe were in a pull apart brawl to hype up their July 9th meeting.

The segment was a hit on YouTube. As of the time of writing, it has been viewed 6,451,605 times. With it receiving a lot of interest, it became a factor that forced the oddsmaker to readjust his approach.

As of today, if he were able to publish a market for the Great Balls of Fire main event, the compiler would now have Brock Lesnar as a 1/6 favourite (-600 US). This would mean Joe's price has been lowered to  7/2 (+350 US).

The adjustment was prompted mainly by the popularity of the angle from Raw.

'WWE might realise they have something there,' he told me. 'They could end up with a double count-out or double disqualification finish.'

Hypothetical Prop On There Being A Sixth Participant In The Women's MITB Match

The weekend has been filled with rumours of a sixth woman being entered into the ladies' Money in the Bank ladder match tonight. It prompted me to seek out a bookmaker to see what kind of odds he would put out if he could publish a prop where customers could bet on an additional person being added.

Or not.

After thinking it through, the bookie suggested that - if he could publish a prop market like this - he would have opted to hang the 'Yes' out at 5/2 and have the 'No' at 2/7.

I wrote a fair bit about it on Friday as I didn't think it was likely despite WWE publishing a tweet that announced there would six wrestlers in both the men's and women's ladder matches for tonight. The tweet was later deleted.

Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe

In April, I asked a bookmaker how he would have priced what was then the upcoming WWE Championship match between Randy Orton and Jinder Mahal. It was only a few days after Mahal became the number one contender, so we both didn't foresee how things eventually turned out. A few weeks afterwards, we both concluded that it would have been a great idea to have returned to the topic sporadically during the weeks leading up to the match to see if he would have readjusted his approach as the weekly TVs built up the match.

We've decided to have a go at it once again. This time, the 'Hypothetical Proposition' will focus on the Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe match that will take place at Great Balls of Fire on July 9th.

The trader has seen last week's episode of WWE Raw which had the angle where Samoa Joe choked out Brock Lesnar's advocate, Paul Heyman. So - with Lesnar's response expected on tonight's episode - I thought I'd ask how who he would price up the market before watching this week's edition.

Unsurprisingly, he is expecting Brock Lesnar to successfully retain the WWE Universal Championship when the two meet in July. He has given the champ an 87.5% chance of winning the match.

'Samoa Joe is strong after choking out Heyman, but I still think they're keeping the title on Lesnar so, it's 1/8 at the moment,' he noted.

Believing that Brock Lesnar will have a lengthy reign as champion and carry the title all the way to WrestleMania 34 - and then meeting Roman Reigns in the main event - was one of the reasons behind the bookie's decision to have the titleholder short in the market for his first defence since winning the strap in April.

Another factor that played a part in pricing up Lesnar at 1/8 are the reports that state Lesnar will defend the title against Braun Strowman at SummerSlam on August 20th.

With 'The Beast' at 1/8 (-800 in US Format), this would mean that Samoa Joe is out at 9/2 (+450 US) to get the result in a month's time.

I'll check back in with the oddsmaker a few times between now and Great Balls of Fire to see if anything, whether it's angles on Raw or other news, leads him to readjust how he would tackle this market.

I hope to run the 'Hypothetical Proposition' series on a regular basis, so we're interested in what you think of this idea and whether you agree or disagree with the predicted pricing.

Hypothetical Proposition: Pricing Up Orton .vs. Mahal For Backlash '17

If you watched Smackdown last night or have been keeping up with wrestling news, I'm sure that you're now aware that the next challenger to Randy Orton's WWE World Championship will be Jinder Mahal.

Let's be realistic, Bray Wyatt is not reclaiming the title at next weekend's Payback PPV, so work with me on this one.

It wasn't a surprising victory if you were following the rumours that were circulating on Twitter in the hours leading into the show. 

When I first found out, I was in two separate conversations about the news. Eerily, the two people - within a few minutes of each other - joked that Randy Orton's could end up being installed as a 1/50 favourite for the match that's scheduled to take place at WWE Backlash 2017 on May 21st.

A few minutes ago, I decided to seek out one of the bookmakers I know. I put him on the spot and asked him how he would price up the market if he could publish one today.

With two people already guessing Orton would be 1/50, I thought the hypothetical proposition was something other visitors would be interested in. He replied quickly with his initial thought on how he would chalk up Orton.

It wasn't 1/50 as the others predicted.

It was shorter.

Yes, the oddsmaker suggested that - off the top of his head - he would price The Viper at 1/100 to get the W against Mahal in their meeting next month.

For those of you looking for the outsider's price - this would put the challenger out at around 16/1.

It'll be interesting to see how they look when they're published for real in mid-to-late May.

Fantasy Bookmaking: 'What's On Last At WrestleMania?'

Earlier this week, when I was chatting to an oddsmaker from a popular firm, I brought up the WrestleMania 33 main event. We were talking about what we thought the final match of the night would be and - as he's a bookmaker - an idea came to me.

I was intrigued to find out how he would price up a 'WrestleMania Main Event' market where customers could punt on what match they thought would go on last, so asked if he could create a fantasy market to both quell my curiosity and give me something to share with you.

Here's how it would have looked on the whiteboard:

At the time of our conversation, Randy Orton was a favourite to win the WWE World Championship match, so he reasoned that the show would have to end with a babyface going over. He expected other people to have this mindset so that's why he ran with the WWE World Championship as his favourite.

On Jim Ross' latest podcast, the host and Ric Flair spoke about what they thought the final match would be. Both men agreed that the Universal Championship meeting between Bill Goldberg and Brock Lesnar should close out the show. 

Apparently, the company is leaning on the Roman Reigns versus Undertaker match. This was reported in today's episode of Wrestling Observer Radio. Dave Meltzer noted that WWE did some research and found that, of all the matches on the card, Reigns .vs. Undertaker was the one that has the most interest from the public. Meltzer wrote about a similar gauge in this week's issue of the Observer and it pointed to Reigns and Taker being the match that most people are talking about.

If this were real, I may have had a punt on Reigns .vs Taker. 

With that said, I backed McMahon .vs. Undertaker to end last year's WrestleMania and look what happened then.

How An Oddsmaker Would Price Up The 7th September 2016 Raw Main Event

On this week's episode of WWE Raw, Roman Reigns will compete against Kevin Owens in a match where - if Reigns wins - the Owens versus Seth Rollins main event for Clash of Champions will be turned into a triple threat match.

A fortnight ago, I checked in with an oddsmaker of a well-known sportsbook to see how he would have priced up all four runners in a fatal four-way match that was set up on Raw. The post had quite a good response from visitors, so I thought I'd check in with him once again. This time, I wanted to ask how he would have priced up tonight's match.

The trader likes the idea of Roman Reigns winning tonight's match because he thinks that there's more of an incentive for WWE to have the triple threat at Clash of Champions. Therefore, he would have published the odds as follows:

Kevin Owens 11/10 (+110 US)
Roman Reigns 4/6  (-150 US)

For what it's worth, I'm leaning on Kevin Owens playing spoiler. Or rather Chris Jericho ruining things. I sense Jericho will cost Reigns the title shot somehow. This will then set up a Reigns versus Jericho match for Clash of Champions.

Which leads me on to the title match at the next PPV.

On top of asking how he would have done tonight's match if Monday Night Raw betting had been a possibility, I asked the trader how he would chalk up the Clash of Champions main event whichever scenario plays out later on.

If it's a regular one-on-one, the odds would have opened as:

Kevin Owens 8/11
Seth Rollins EVS

Or, if it's as he predicts:

Kevin Owens EVS (+100)
Seth Rollins 6/4
Roman Reigns 7/2

He has Kevin Owens winning retaining with a win in both scenarios and has noted that he believes the title should remain with the heel in Owens right up until Finn Balor is ready to recapture the strap.

Now all we have to do is see how the match unfolds and see how the markets would have paid out.

How An Oddsmaker Would Have Priced Up Tonight's Main Event : Raw 29th August 2016

On tonight's episode of WWE Raw, a new Universal Champion will be crowned when Seth Rollins, Kevin Owens, Big Cass and Roman Reigns square off in a Fatal 4-Way.

With the match taking place on regular WWE television, so no major sportsbook is accepting wagers on it, I checked in with a trader from a popular bookmaking firm to see how he would have priced things up.

I was initially surprised with who he pegged as the favourite, but he gave a good reason as to why he did so.

This is how the market would have looked if it went live.

Big Cass 1/1 (+100 US)

Roman Reigns 6/5 (+120 US)

Seth Rollins 7/2 (+350 US)

Kevin Owens 8/1 (+800 US)

As noted, I was very surprised with Big Cass at the top of the list. The reason why he was inserted so high was explained to be because the Women's and US Championships are currently in the hands of heels. He is banking on the company moving the title from one babyface in Finn Balor to another in either Big Cass or Roman Reigns. A potential negative reaction to a Roman Reigns victory led to the trader projecting the surprise upset getting the slight nod ahead of The Big Dog.

Seth Rollins at 7/2 is where I would have had a punt if such a market saw the light of day. In my opinion they should give Rollins the strap, allow him to make it something big for when it's time for Finn Balor to make his comeback.

I'd be a liar to state the 8/1 for a Kevin Owens victory wouldn't have crossed my mind as well, but Rollins is my favourite for tonight.