Monday 29 August 2016

How An Oddsmaker Would Have Priced Up Tonight's Main Event : Raw 29th August 2016

On tonight's episode of WWE Raw, a new Universal Champion will be crowned when Seth Rollins, Kevin Owens, Big Cass and Roman Reigns square off in a Fatal 4-Way.

With the match taking place on regular WWE television, so no major sportsbook is accepting wagers on it, I checked in with a trader from a popular bookmaking firm to see how he would have priced things up.

I was initially surprised with who he pegged as the favourite, but he gave a good reason as to why he did so.

This is how the market would have looked if it went live.

Big Cass 1/1 (+100 US)
Roman Reigns 6/5 (+120 US)
Seth Rollins 7/2 (+350 US)
Kevin Owens 8/1 (+800 US)

As noted, I was very surprised with Big Cass at the top of the list. The reason why he was inserted so high was explained to be because the Women's and US Championships are currently in the hands of heels. He is banking on the company moving the title from one babyface in Finn Balor to another in either Big Cass or Roman Reigns. A potential negative reaction to a Roman Reigns victory led to the trader projecting the surprise upset getting the slight nod ahead of The Big Dog.

Seth Rollins at 7/2 is where I would have had a punt if such a market saw the light of day. In my opinion they should give Rollins the strap, allow him to make it something big for when it's time for Finn Balor to make his comeback.

I'd be a liar to state the 8/1 for a Kevin Owens victory wouldn't have crossed my mind as well, but Rollins is my favourite for tonight.

15 comments:

  1. Amazed by those odds. Best way to get heat & keep Balor mentioned is to have Rollins go over so ya, i'd say Rollins will win. Those odds are making me wish they postpone the 4 way until Clash of Champions.

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  2. Replies
    1. I'm actually reading many articles with "inside" info saying reigns and Rollins. Haven't heard any for KO or Big Cass. I wouldn't think WWE would break up that tag team. If we could bet, I would load up on reigns and Rollins.

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    2. The articles are expanding on/potentially jumping to an obvious conclusion from something that was reported in this week's Observer.

      Clash of Champions was to have Balor defend against Owens and Jericho in one match. The other match on the card was scheduled to be Reigns vs Rollins, so the obvious easy direction is to stick with Reigns/Rollins but have it be for the Universal Title.

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    3. yeah I saw that about Clash of Champions. So weird they threw KO and Jericho into that. I am not big on KO at all and we can all agree that Jericho wasn't going to end up winning that match. You do need some filler so the bigger stars can fight at the bigger PPV's but still, that was a weird match up, in my opinion. Balor did a great job fighting through that injury. It was such a weird night with the finishes of Reigns/Rusev and Lesnar/ Orton. The WWE looks find of foolish with this $500 fine that lesnar recevied. Even if the fine is fake…do something more then $500.

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    4. The $500 fine is perfect.

      It was a work to make it appear as though Stephanie hasn't disciplined Lesnar enough.

      There's nothing more to it other than to set further animosity between Stephanie/Raw and Shane/Smackdown.

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    5. Lesnar is currently a huge liability to the company…I don't know how much longer he'll be around to be honest. The Lesnar/Jericho arguement is just more bad PR for wwe. If the situation was staged, then yeah $500 plays out in the storyline…but thats an if.

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    6. Here is why I'm agains the "$500 fine." WWE is suppose to be real (even though they are doing all this crap today with wrestlers interacting with eachother outside of the ring like nothing has ever happened between them ever.) So why fine someone for throwing punches....thats what WWE is suppose to be making it look like what is happening. On the flipside if WWE realizes everyone knows its fake, why charge someone just $500 for doing something so out of character? If its a fake fine WWE would look much better doing a MASSIVE fine instead of $500. As a casual fan (and thats what WWE is trying to draw in for business) the $500 fine makes me laugh.

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  3. KO is going to win the title....only one that would make sense!!

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    Replies
    1. Props dude! Very nice call!

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    2. Wow! Such a crazy finish. I hate how much WWE does this though. I liked it much better when HHH wasn't involved! Ohhh well! I'll be at raw on Monday so looking forward to that!

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    3. This is why I am a rich man betting on wrestling

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  4. Lol bookmakers favorite is first to get eliminated. Not sure why they picked Cass to get the win. Like I said before, would have made no sense breaking up that tag team. Cass looked strong, that's all the WWE needed to happen with him.

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    Replies
    1. He explained why. It was because he was projecting the title being placed on a babyface due to the other titles being controlled by heels.

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