Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe

In April, I asked a bookmaker how he would have priced what was then the upcoming WWE Championship match between Randy Orton and Jinder Mahal. It was only a few days after Mahal became the number one contender, so we both didn't foresee how things eventually turned out. A few weeks afterwards, we both concluded that it would have been a great idea to have returned to the topic sporadically during the weeks leading up to the match to see if he would have readjusted his approach as the weekly TVs built up the match.

We've decided to have a go at it once again. This time, the 'Hypothetical Proposition' will focus on the Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe match that will take place at Great Balls of Fire on July 9th.

The trader has seen last week's episode of WWE Raw which had the angle where Samoa Joe choked out Brock Lesnar's advocate, Paul Heyman. So - with Lesnar's response expected on tonight's episode - I thought I'd ask how who he would price up the market before watching this week's edition.

Unsurprisingly, he is expecting Brock Lesnar to successfully retain the WWE Universal Championship when the two meet in July. He has given the champ an 87.5% chance of winning the match.

'Samoa Joe is strong after choking out Heyman, but I still think they're keeping the title on Lesnar so, it's 1/8 at the moment,' he noted.

Believing that Brock Lesnar will have a lengthy reign as champion and carry the title all the way to WrestleMania 34 - and then meeting Roman Reigns in the main event - was one of the reasons behind the bookie's decision to have the titleholder short in the market for his first defence since winning the strap in April.

Another factor that played a part in pricing up Lesnar at 1/8 are the reports that state Lesnar will defend the title against Braun Strowman at SummerSlam on August 20th.

With 'The Beast' at 1/8 (-800 in US Format), this would mean that Samoa Joe is out at 9/2 (+450 US) to get the result in a month's time.

I'll check back in with the oddsmaker a few times between now and Great Balls of Fire to see if anything, whether it's angles on Raw or other news, leads him to readjust how he would tackle this market.

I hope to run the 'Hypothetical Proposition' series on a regular basis, so we're interested in what you think of this idea and whether you agree or disagree with the predicted pricing.