Monday 26 June 2017

Hypothetical Proposition : Pricing Up Lesnar .vs. Joe (Week 3)

For the past few Mondays, I've published a series of posts where I've asked a person who worked in the betting industry how he would price the upcoming Brock Lesnar versus Samoa Joe match for WWE Great Balls of Fire if he were able to do so. The plan was to price it up and then return numerous times along the way to see if any angles or breaking wrestling news forces him to readjust how he would tackle the market.

When we last left off, my friend had lowered Samoa Joe's odds from 9/2 to 7/2 because the angle, where Brock Lesnar and Samoa Joe were in a pull apart brawl at the start of the June 12th edition of WWE Raw, had received a high number of views on YouTube and he felt that WWE might think it had something big in Joe and have the match result in a double count-out or disqualification.

Following last Monday's Raw, where Roman Reigns challenged the eventual winner for a match at SummerSlam 2017 and then wrestled Samoa Joe in the main event, the trader has decided to revert back to his original estimate and have Joe out at 9/2  (+450 US) while the WWE Universal Champion - Brock Lesnar - move back to 1/8 (-800 US) from 1/6.



The reason why the compiler has decided to swing back to the original pricing is because he has factored in the possibility that WWE has changed course and that the SummerSlam main event will see Reigns challenge Brock Lesnar for the Universal Title rather than WrestleMania 34.

Another thing that made him decide that Brock Lesnar's price had to be cut back down was because the company gave away Reigns .vs. Joe on last week's Raw, He felt that the company wouldn't have gone to that match if it was the planned Universal Championship match for SummerSlam.

Brock Lesnar is scheduled for tonight's episode of Raw, so it'll be interesting to see if anything that happens on the show prompts another adjustment.

You can read previous Hypothetical Proposition posts by clicking on 'Hypothetical' in the labels below.

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