Many are trying to decipher what's going on as there has been somewhat of a see-saw going on. As is often the case, we won't truly know for sure until the result tomorrow night. Therefore, we have to go with what we do know and jump to a conclusion or two from that.
For starters, Alexa Bliss was one of the very first selections that was backed when the markets went live shortly before midnight UK time last night. The earliest number I have is with her as a +350 outsider. By 1am, the price had fallen to +180.
When I checked in at 8am this morning, I noticed she had entered favouritism. I started writing up a post where I went through each market, I hit 'Publish' and then happened to look back at the odds to see that Bliss' price was one of many that had shortened heavily within the time it took for me to type up the post,
At this point, she was a far shorter -1140 from the -195 I found minutes earlier.
From there, Becky Lynch's number - that had risen to +580 when Alexa's odds took a nosedive - was backed. Her price dropped to +180. When this happened, it seemed the money started rolling back in on Alexa.
You can see how the odds moved for both selections in the image below.
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As you can see, Alexa was the third biggest move on the board in that half hour period. I have a figure in my head whenever there's a huge swing. The 945 points surpass this number.
And then some.
With all that said, there have been a couple of occasions in recent history where women's matches have seen heavy swings only for the result to contradict the betting action.
Even before the odds came out and these heavy swings went the way of Alexa, I had a feeling she would claim the title this weekend.
Becky Lynch losing the championship in this way would allow for her to drop the strap and still sort of be kept strong as Bliss wouldn't have beaten her by pinfall or submission. Doing a title switch here would also extend the feud.
As per usual, we'll have to wait until the result to know for definite whether today's shifts meant anything.
Odds moving looks similar to Sasha - Charlotte at SummerSlam.
ReplyDeleteAlso we notice before, that first moves most important, so i think Alexa will win
I can't really use that match as a measuring stick because Charlotte's odds started tumbling early in SummerSlam week when people were clued in that she was dropping the title.
DeleteSomeone made a great point: Bliss has been put over enough already. She has victimized Becky, portrayed her wins as flukes, slung ethnic slurs at her, left her laying after every encounter & is now going to take her title & all her credibility? To ruin a top performer like that seems incredibly stupid even by WWE's standards. Logic would tell you that this is the moment where the "good guy" finally overcomes the odds. Any other outcome would spell disaster for the division, especially from a wrestling standpoint. This will be an utter humiliation for Becky Lynch's character. She may never recover.
ReplyDeleteAll good points, but the odds disagree.
DeleteBliss winning the title in a tables match is not going to ruin Lynch. Look at it in WWE's eyes. You are talking about before and still kind of, why Lynch will win. Why do what the public already thinks will happen? No one will keep watching the PPV's if that happens. Moral of this story, Lynch will not be ruined with a loss.
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